Conflict Trends Update

AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban and Pakistani forces clashed on Wednesday in the eastern border province of Paktia as the Taliban accused Islamabad of erecting a military post on the border. Crisis Group expert Graeme Smith says tensions between the sides have been simmering for months and have occasionally escalated into armed clashes. Pakistan has grown frustrated with the sanctuary that Afghanistan’s new rulers have afforded the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), which is orchestrating a deadly cross-border campaign in Pakistan. Islamabad and the Taliban also disagree over the Durand Line, which the Taliban rejects as the official border and Pakistan continues to fence. The skirmishes take place as Taliban also battles the Islamic State’s local branch and armed resistance forces in the north.

ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN

In the first large-scale escalation since the 2020 war, fighting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani troops this week killed at least 135 Armenian and 77 Azerbaijani soldiers. The hostilities erupted along multiple parts of the border and included heavy Azerbaijani shelling and drone strikes reaching civilian settlements and key towns inside Armenian territory. Crisis Group expert Olesya Vartanyan says that the ceasefire that was agreed on the second day of fighting remains fragile and could easily collapse into renewed clashes with Azerbaijani forces potentially taking over more territories inside Armenia.

IRAN

The International Atomic Energy Agency expressed ongoing concern around the lack of Iranian engagement on an investigation into past activities at undeclared sites. 23 out of the 35 members comprising the agency’s Board of Governors on Wednesday supported a statement by the U.S., UK, France and Germany urging Iran to resolve all outstanding safeguards issues. Crisis Group expert Ali Vaez says the fate of the investigation has been a key sticking point in efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran’s demand for the probe to be closed runs counter to the IAEA’s mandate, and the continued impasse makes the deal’s revival unlikely before the U.S. midterm elections, if at all.