All quiet in the archipelago?
Maldives recorded no terrorism-linked fatality in 2023, as in the preceding five years. The abduction and killing of blogger Yameen Rasheed by a local affiliate of Al-Qaeda on April 23, 2017, was the last terrorism related killing in the country. There have, however, been at least nine terrorist attacks since the Rasheed killing, including three in 2019, four in 2020 and one each in 2021 and 2022.
The last terrorism-linked incident of violence in the Maldives was reported on August 22, 2022, when the then Maldivian Minister of State for Environment, Climate Change and Technology, Ali Solih, was attacked with a knife and injured when he was traveling on his scooter in the Hulhumale area of capital Male. The attacker, who came and stood in front of the Minister’s scooter, chanted some verses from the Quran and subsequently launched the attack. The video of the incident over social media shows the attacker making several failed attempts to slit the Minister’s throat, but could only slash a portion of his left arm. The Minister managed to save his life by running away. The attacker, Mohamed Jameel, who was arrested soon after the incident, was wearing a shirt bearing the logo of the Islamic State (IS).
There was no incident of arrest of a terrorist in the country in 2023, as against 26 in 2022.
Nevertheless, the shadow of Islamist terror continues to lurk over Maldives. On November 8, 2023, the Criminal Court slapped Mohamed Ameen, who is believed to be the leader of Maldivian faction of the IS, with a prison sentence of 27 years on two charges related to terrorism. State prosecutors accused Ameen of being the leader of a terrorist organisation and for conspiracy to carry out an act of terrorism. He was found to have recruited and sent Maldivians to fight in the civil war in Syria, conspired to recruit Maldivians to fight for the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (IS-KP) in Afghanistan, after the Syrian conflict ended, and propagating an extremist religious ideology.
Ameen was the first Maldivian to be listed as a terrorist by the United States, in 2019.
On July 31, 2023, the US Department of the Treasury issued a list of 20 Maldivian individuals and 29 companies that are believed to have ties with IS, IS-KP and Al-Qaeda, and have been funding their terrorist activities in the Maldives, and had applied sanctions against them. Following the sanction, US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller disclosed that the aim of these designations was to deter and disrupt financial and other forms of support for terrorist activities within the Maldives. Miller stated, “The United States is steadfast in its commitment to counter the threats posed by these terrorist support networks, both locally and internationally, and to ensure they are deprived of funding and resources for carrying out attacks.”
The targeted individuals and entities have been linked to Mohamad Ameen. Some of the designated individuals were involved in planning and executing attacks against journalists and local authorities.
Further according to latest US Department of State’s Country Reports on Terrorism 2022, published on November 30, 2023,
Maldives established general regulations and a regulation on rehabilitation and reintegration under the Antiterrorism Act (ATA) and passed a Prohibition on Chemical Weapons. There were no significant changes to law enforcement capacity. The Maldives National Defense Force (MNDF), including the marines and coast guard, and Maldives Police Service (MPS) remained jointly responsible for CT response. The MNDF conducted multiple cooperative engagements with U.S. forces focused on CT operations and enhancing maritime security capabilities to increase domain awareness and security…
The illegal narcotics trade is rampant in Maldives. A report, Maldives, by the Global Organised Crime Index, published on September 26, 2023, noted that the Maldives remained a “strategic transit country” for heroin trafficking, with foreign criminal networks based in Pakistan controlling a large portion of the trade. Heroin is sourced from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran and then transported to the Maldives and other nearby islands using the sea route. The Maldives also has its own considerable local supply and consumption market for heroin. The cocaine trade is also present in the Maldives, primarily as a transit country to Thailand and the Philippines. As earlier, Pakistan’s role was demonstrated in the April 3, 2022, incident, in which two Pakistani nationals who smuggled drugs into the Maldives were arrested at Velana International Airport. Ahmed Ali (32) and Moimina Gulfam (20), were arrested after drugs were found in their bags and hidden inside their bodies. 2023 also witnessed several cases related with Narcotics seizure in maldives, from Pakistani nationals. For instance, on October 7, 2023, Heroin weighing a total of 4.72 kilograms was seized from a Pakistani national, in Male. Earlier on June 5, 2023, a Pakistani national travelling from Faisalabad (Pakistan) was arrested in Male along with 10.14 kilograms of heroin.
Criminal gangs have also been involved with terrorist organisations. In July 2023, the US Department of the Treasury observed that Ahmed Alif Rauf (Alif), Mohamed Inthif Rauf (Inthif), and Ibrahim Aleef Rauf (Ibrahim) led the IS-aligned, Maldives-based criminal gang Kuda Henveyru. The Kuda Henveyru gang has attempted to fundraise for Maldivian IS and has carried out organized large-scale robberies to generate finances. Alif, Inthif, and Ibrahim played a critical role in obtaining funding to support IS’s activities abroad as well. Specifically, Alif used Kuda Henveyru to recruit and radicalize young men, who were then sent to conflict zones. In addition, Maldives-based companies – Street Investments Pvt. Ltd; Street Motor Services; and White Beach Watersports Pvt. Ltd. – were owned or controlled by Alif. Maldives-based companies Baum Pvt. Ltd. and Maroc International Pvt. Ltd. were owned or controlled by Inthif.
The results of the Presidential election of 2023 have been vital for the archipelago nation. On September 30, 2023, Malé City Mayor and People’s National Congress (PNC) candidate Mohamed Muizzu, won 54.06 per cent of vote, defeating the incumbent, Ibrahim Solih, to become President. Muizzu led an ‘India Out’ campaign in the run-up to the presidential elections. His party, PNC, had a tie-up with the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) led by former President Abdullah Yameen Abdul Gayoom. Muizzu is considered to be a protégé of Gayoom. Gayoom’s Presidency (2013-18) had been marked by a surge in extremist mobilization in the country, as well as the migration of over 250 Maldivians to Iraq and Syria, to join the Islamic State. Muizzu’s, flagship ‘India Out’ campaign also ties up with China, which had always been looking to make inroads in the region. Recognizing the opportunity, China has capitalised on the situation, pushing several infrastructure and connectivity projects, including the Male-Thilafushi project, under its broader ‘string of pearls’ plan.
The coming months will be crucial for Maldives. Though the country has not recorded any terrorism related incident in the recent past, the underlying danger of radicalization cannot be denied. The strong Islamist and anti-India sentiments of the current political dispensation are, moreover, likely to provide fertile ground for various radical Islamist organisations working from Pakistan to restore their activities in the Maldives. Maldives has a history of falling prey to Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Lashkar-e-Taiba, as had happened in the wake of the Tsunami in 2004. Domestic extremist formations and their criminal gang affiliates are also likely to find the political environment under the present regime easier to operate within.
India
On January 27, 2024, a cadre of the Biswa Mohan Debbarma faction of National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT-BM), identified as Chhanaklu Debbarma, surrendered before the Border Security Force (BSF) in the Dyke village of Dhalai District of Tripura. Chhanaklu Debbarma had joined the outfit in October 2022.
On January 14, 2024, five insurgents of the Parimal Debbarma faction of the NLFT(NLFT-PD) surrendered before the Tripura Police at Agartala in West Tripura District. The Police disclosed that they surrendered with one Chinese Pistol, two Chinese-made rifles, 17 live rounds, a gun, a walkie-talkie with charging port, BDT 770, two Bangladeshi mobile SIM cards, five extortion notices and five extortion receipts. Deputy Inspector General of Police (DIGP, Intelligence), Krishnendu Chakravertty, disclosed that, before surrendering, they had been staying in the group’s hideout in Bangladesh.
On January 7, 2024, Uday Manik Jamatia, a cadre of the NLFT-BM, surrendered before the BSF in the Chawmanu area of Dhalai District. Jamatia had joined NLFT-BM in September 2023.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 14 insurgents surrendered in four separate incidents in 2023. The seven of the 14 surrendered cadres belonged to NLFT-BM; six to NLFT (faction not identified); and one to NLFT-PD. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on insurgencies in the Northeast, a total of 3,818 militants have surrendered in the state.
A statement from BSF Tripura on December 30, 2023, said,
Tripura state has been insurgency prone for last few decades. Due to endeavour of central agencies and state authorities, in recent past several cadres of NLFT(BM) opted to return back to the mainstream of society. Such initiative will certainly motivate the misguided youths to leave the path of violence.
On November 27, 2023, the Tripura United Indigenous People’s Council (TUIPC), a platform of surrendered militants of Tripura, sought a special central package of INR 5 billion for proper rehabilitation of the ‘returnees’. TUIPC chairman and the former chief of the All-Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), Ranjit Debbarma claimed that the state government had failed to fulfil the promises of the 1988 Tripura National Volunteers (TNV) peace accord and added, “We met the special secretary of the [Union] Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA), A.K. Mishra, in Delhi on November 22 and submitted a memorandum highlighting the problems of surrendered militants of the state.”
Though no insurgent has been arrested so far in the current year, at least 13 insurgents were arrested in six separate incidents in 2023. A total of 1,093 militants have been arrested in Tripura since March 6, 2000.
Meanwhile, a statement from the Tripura Police released on January 15 observed,
Since January 2023, a large number of NLFT cadres surrendered before security forces. So far, 26 active members of NLFT surrendered before Tripura Police and other security forces working in Tripura. During the period, 8 cadres of NLFT have been arrested by Tripura Police. With the surrender of 05 (five) cadres today on 15-01- 2024 Tripura has further advanced towards making the state insurgency free.
On September 18, 2023, Pradyot Kishore Manikya Debbarma, the former chairman of Tipra Motha, a regional political party, urged NLFT cadres to join the mainstream and advocate for the rights of the indigenous people of Tripura in New Delhi,
I appeal to the NLFT cadres who are in hiding in Bangladesh to join the mainstream and refrain from resorting to violence, as guns cannot solve our problems. Together, we will raise our voices in Delhi for our demands.
Indeed, Tripura remained peaceful through 2023. The state recorded a single killing in the year when ATTF cadres shot dead a Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) local tribal leader in Sadar (east) subdivision of Tripura on January 4.
A lone fatality was reported in 2022 as well. On August 19, suspected NLFT-BM militants killed a BSF trooper, Head Constable Girjesh Kumar Uddey, in a remote forest area of Kanchanpur sub-division in North Tripura District.
The last militant fatality in the state was reported back on July 23, 2012, when one NLFT militant was killed at Majimonipur under the Raishyabari Police Station in Dhalai District.
In fact, in 14 years beginning 2010, while eight years have witnessed overall fatalities in single digits, no fatality was reported in another six years. Earlier, fatalities had remained in double digits between 2005 and 2009, and in three digits between 1993 and 2004. A high of 514 fatalities were recorded in 2000. Year 2000 also recorded the highest civilian fatalities, 453; while the highest Security Forces fatalities, 50, were recorded in 1997.
Meanwhile, three out of the six factions of the NLFT have given up violence. Two factions of the NLFT, one jointly led by Montu Koloi and Kamini Debbarma, and the other led by Nayanbashi Jamatiya alias Nakbar, were disbanded in 2004 and 2006, respectively. The last to join the negotiation process was the Subir Debbarma faction (NLFT-SD). On August 10, 2019, a tripartite agreement was signed between NLFT-SD, the Union Government, and the Tripura Government. Another minor faction, led by ‘commander’ Prabhat Jamatya, went dormant in 2014. NLFT-BM and NLFT-PD, though, remain active, but have weakened considerably.
The other prominent Tripura-based group, ATTF, remains active, but has also been substantially marginalized.
The Tripura Police website notes,
Presently two militant groups namely NLFT and ATTF are operating in the state. They are equipped with sophisticated weapons and have the expertise and training in explosive handling largely due to their link with ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence]. Some fundamentalist elements of Bangladesh who are opposed to Indo-Bangladesh friendship tie are also providing logistic support to the outfits.
On October 3, 2023, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) re-imposed the ban on NLFT and ATTF for five years. The UMHA notification stated that these organisations and their allied outfits have been proscribed for their involvement in various subversive activities and threatening the country’s sovereignty and integrity. The declaration, which was effective from October 3, 2023, for a period of five years, encompasses all factions, wings, and front organizations associated with these groups.
A significant portion of Tripura’s current problems stem from its porous 856-kilometers, long international border with Bangladesh, which bounds each of the State’s four Districts, making it crucial for authorities to remain vigilant against illegal activities. Aside from illegal elements, including militants, smugglers, and armed thugs, this vulnerable border has facilitated the movement of illegal migrants from Bangladesh. Under difficult circumstances, the BSF Tripura Frontier has been fighting insurgency, upholding border sanctity, and stopping a range of trans-border crimes.
A statement from the BSF on January 2, 2024, noted that a total of 744 people had been arrested by the BSF while they were trying to illegally enter India from Bangladesh through the international border in Tripura in 2023. This number was the highest in the last three years, with the BSF Tripura Frontier arresting 369 infiltrators in 2022 and 208 in 2021. Among the detained individuals in 2023, 112 were identified as Rohingyas, while 337 were Bangladeshis and 295 were Indians. Along with preventing unauthorized border crossings, BSF officers also located and confiscated contraband valued at INR 418.2 million. The confiscated items include banned cough syrup, cannabis, Yaba tablets, and brown sugar. The Indo-Bangladesh Border Roads and Fence Project, intended to interdict this trafficking, has received significant funding from the central government, but its construction has been labour intensive and delayed.
The Bru issue is another area of concern that has persisted and continues to impact Tripura. The Brus had been forced to flee neighbouring Mizoram due to conflicts with the Mizo population in 1995, and sought refuge in camps in the Kanchanpur sub-division of Tripura. To tackle the issue of resettlement of the Brus, a quadripartite agreement was signed on January 16, 2020, between the Government of India, the Government of Tripura, the Government of Mizoram, and Bru representatives, to permanently resettle 6,959 displaced Bru families (37,136 persons) at various locations in Tripura with a financial assistance/package of around INR.661.00 crore. According to the Agreement, each resettled Bru family would be given 30×40 sq. ft. of land and INR 150,000 for the construction of a house, a fixed deposit of INR 400,000, INR 5,000/- cash assistance per month for two years, and free ration for two years. However, four years after the agreement was signed, the resettlement process remains incomplete. Some families have moved to 16 new settlements, but many continue to live in the old shelters.
After nearly three decades of virulent insurgency, Tripura has remained largely peaceful for over a decade and a half. Though NLFT has remained notionally active in the State, it is hardly seen engaging in violence and many of its cadres have given up arms. Unfenced arenas of the porous international border with Bangladesh, however, remain a problem for the State and border management is a challenge that still needs to be addressed.
AFGHANISTAN
No responsive authority exists in Afghanistan, says UNAMA: The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), in its quarterly report released on January 22 covering October to December 2023, reported the absence of an applicable legal framework for addressing gender-based violence complaints within the Taliban Government. UNAMA further said that fearing intimidation by Taliban officials, avoid approaching Government authorities and instead choose informal means to resolve disputes, highlighting the entirely male-dominated nature of the Taliban’s judicial institutions.