SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Durand Line: Bone of contention
On May 14, 2024, at least 12 terrorists and one Army soldier were killed while five other Security Forces (SF) personnel sustained injuries when terrorists from Afghanistan in their attempt to infiltrate inside Pakistan attacked Pakistani checkpoints in the Teri Mangal area, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, in the Kurram District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The attack, launched with heavy weapons, targeted security installations within a 10 kilometres radius.
On May 14, 2024, two border posts of the Bajaur Scouts came under rocket fire from militants inside Afghanistan, in the Bajaur District of KP. Pakistani Forces retaliated to the attack.There were, however, no reports of any losses.
On May 13, 2024, two militants were killed and an unverified number of other militants were injured when Pakistani forces foiled attempt by terrorists from Afghanistan to infiltrate into Pakistan in the Kaga Pass area, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, in the Mamund tehsil (revenue unit) of Bajaur District.
On April 17, 2024, seven terrorists were killed while trying to infiltrate in the Spinkai area of Ghulam Khan Tehsil (revenue unit), along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, in the North Waziristan District of KP. “The infiltrators were surrounded, effectively engaged and after an intense fire exchange, all seven terriorists were sent to hell. A large quantity of weapons, ammunition and explosives was also recovered,” the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said. The terrorists were identified as affiliates of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group. An unnamed ‘spokesman’ of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group confirmed that seven militants affiliated with its Jaish-ul-Umari suicide squad were killed, and also claimed casualties from the other side without giving numbers.
On March 9, 2024, two terrorists were killed and another three sustained injuries during an exchange of fire with SFs along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in North Waziristan District, when a group of five terrorists tried to infiltrate. “After an intense fire exchange, two terrorists — Hazrat Umer and Rehman Niaz — were also sent to hell, while three other terrorists got injured,” said an ISPR press release.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), seven violent attacks by militants from across the border (including the six mentioned above), resulting in 24 deaths (23 terrorists and one SF trooper) inside Pakistan, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan-border, have been reported in the current year (data till May 19, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, three such incidents, resulting in eight deaths (all SF personnel) and one trooper injured, were reported. In the remaining part of 2023, another six such incidents were reported, resulting in 27 fatalities (18 terrorists and nine SF personnel) and 50 persons injured (40 terrorists and 10 SF personnel). Seventeen such incidents, resulting in 40 deaths (31 SF personnel, seven civilians and two terrorists) were reported in 2022. There were 12 such incidents, resulting in 19 deaths (16 SF personnel and three militants) were reported in 2021; seven such incidents in 2020, resulting in 11 fatalities (10 SF personnel and one militant); and another seven in 2019, with 22 fatalities (20 SF personnel and two militants).
Meanwhile, on May 16, 2024, tension escalated in the Danday – Pattan Kharlachi area, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, in Kurram District, as heavy cross border firing took place in the area. “There were heavy arms and ammunition used from both sides,” an unnamed Pakistani security official from the area disclosed, adding, “However there was no loss of life reported on the Pakistani side.” The Taliban Government in Afghanistan also did not comment on casualties on the Afghan side.
Earlier, on May 11, 2024, at least four Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants were killed and a few others were injured in an aerial strike by Pakistani forces at an unspecified location inside Afghanistan, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, adjacent to the Waziristan District of KP. An unnamed senior TTP affiliate confirmed the attack and declared, “We have dispatched a team to identify the exact location, killed militants and their affiliations, and determine the exact casualty count. We await their report.”
Prior to that, on March 18, 2024, Pakistan carried out “intelligence-based anti-terrorist operations” inside the border regions of Afghanistan, and killed eight people. A press release from Pakistan’s Foreign Office said the prime targets of the operation conducted in the morning were terrorists belonging to the Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group, adding that the outfit, along with the TTP, was responsible for multiple terrorist attacks inside Pakistan, resulting in “deaths of hundreds of civilians and law enforcement officials.”
In response to the Pakistani attack, the Afghan Interim Government carried out multiple retaliatory attacks on security installations along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in the Parachinar area of Kurram District in KP, in which one Army captain was killed and two Army personnel sustained injuries. Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that they had responded to the Pakistani attacks and targeted Pakistani military centres with heavy weapons. The statement declared, “Once again, Pakistani military and reconnaissance jets have entered Afghanistan’s territory and bombarded the homes of civilians in Barmal of Paktika and Spera of Khost.”
The volatility at the Af-Pak border has increased since the return of the Afghan Taliban to power in Kabul, belying Islamabad’s hope of improvement in the situation. Indeed, on May 10, 2024, Asif Ali Durrani, Pakistan’s Special Representative on Afghanistan, expressed regret that TTP attacks in Pakistan emanating from Afghanistan had significantly increased since the Afghan Taliban took over Kabul. Durrani noted,
Earlier, it was hoped that with the arrival of the Taliban, the security situation on the Pak-Afghan border would improve but unfortunately the attacks emanating from Afghanistan had increased by 60 per cent in the last two years.
Earlier, on March 6, 2024, Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Munir Akram, responding to border incidents, stated that the Pakistani armed forces respond to “cross-border attacks by the TTP and its affiliates against the country’s border posts and installations… We would expect the UN to call on the Afghan interim government to prevent such cross-border attacks and infiltration by the TTP and other terrorists into Pakistani territory.”
On March 20, 2024, Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif alleged that the cross-border attacks continued and warned that Pakistan would not tolerate any more such incidents on its soil.
On the other hand, the Afghan Taliban has blamed Pakistan. On May 8, 2024, Enayatullah Khwarazmi, spokesperson for Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense, denying Pakistani claims that Afghanistan’s soil was being used by the TTP against Islamabad, claimed that occasionally the soil of Pakistan was being used against Afghanistan, and Islamic State elements entered Afghanistan from there. Khwarazmi added, “We have cases where ISIS [Islamic State] extremists have entered Afghanistan from Pakistan and are using Pakistani soil against our land. Pakistan must answer for this.”
The conflict over the Durand Line appears irreducible, as no regime in Afghanistan has ever accepted its legitimacy, even as Pakistan continues to assert irrevocable sovereignty over all territories up to the Line. As the Taliban regime entrenches itself further in Afghanistan, the friction along the Durand Line can only escalate.
Chhattisgarh: Belated homecomings
On May 14, 2024, as many as 30 Maoists [Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist)], nine of them carrying a cumulative bounty of INR 3.9 million on their heads, surrendered before Security Forces (SFs) in Bijapur District in the Bastar Division of Chhattisgarh. The Maoists, among them six women, surrendered before senior officials of the Police and Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), declaring that they were disappointed with atrocities committed by Maoists on tribals and the “hollow” Maoist ideology, the Police stated in a release. Of the 30 surrendered cadres, Mitki Kakem alias Sarita (35/F), a member of ‘military company No. 2’ of the Maoists, and Muri Muhnda alias Sukhmati (32/F), a member of ‘platoon No. 32’, carried bounties of INR 800,000 each on their heads. Rajita Vetti (24/F), Deve Kovasi (24/F), and Ayta Sodhi (22/F), all ‘platoon members’, and Sinu, a member of ‘battalion No. 1’ of the Maoists, carried a reward of INR 500,000 each on their heads. The others, Munna Hemla (35), Aytu Midiam (38) and Aytu Karam (50), were active as heads of ‘janatana sarkar’ (people’s government) groups of the Maoists, and carried rewards of INR 100,000 each. These nine cadres were allegedly involved in multiple attacks on security personnel, the release said. The identities of the remaining 21 lower-ranking cadres are yet to be disclosed.
On May 9, 2024, six Maoists, who were allegedly involved in the killing of 65 SF personnel, surrendered in Sukma District in the Bastar Division. The Maoists carried a combined bounties of INR 3.6 million. The surrendered Maoists were identified as Dudhi Pojja (27) and Dudhi Pojje (24), from the ‘People’s Liberation Guerilla Army (PLGA) Battalion 1’, and they carried bounties of INR 800,000 each; Kawasi Mudha (30), Karam Naranna (65), Rainu Madkam (35), and Jayakka alias Aayte Korsa (51), a woman cadre, who carried rewards of INR 500,000 each. They were all involved in the 2017 Burkapal ambush that claimed the lives of 25 SF personnel, the 2020 Minpa attack that killed 17 SF personnel, and the 2021 Tekulguda attack that killed 23 SF personnel
On May 8, 2024, three Maoists, including two women, surrendered in the Dantewada District of the Bastar Division under the Lon Varratu (a local Gondi dialect expression, meaning return to your home/village) scheme. The surrendered Maoists were part of the Maoists’ ‘Malanger Area Committee’ and belonged to the Krantikari Mahila Adivasi Sangthan (KAMS), a Maoist front organisation, and the Chetna Natya Mandali (CNM), the CPI-Maoist ‘cultural wing’. The surrendered Maoists were identified as Kumari Nande Markam, a KAMS member; Kesha Gonche, a Gonderas Panchayat ‘militia’ (people’s army of the Maoists) member; and Kumari Malle, a Gonderas Panchayat CNM member. The surrendered Maoists stated that they had lost faith in the ‘hollow ideology’ of the Maoists and their exploitation, and had thus decided to lay down their arms.
On May 5, 2024, 35 Maoists, including three cadres with bounties on their heads, surrendered in Dantewada District. The surrendered Maoists were previously active in the Bhairamgarh, Malanger, and Katekalyan Area Committees, often involved in disruptive activities like road digging, tree cutting, and dissemination of Maoist propaganda during bandhs (general shut-down strikes). Dantewada Superintendent of Police (SP) Gaurav Rai confirmed that the surrendered Maoists had renounced violence and expressed their belief in democracy and the Constitution.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 135 Maoists have surrendered in the Bastar Division in the current year, thus far (data till May 19, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, 89 Maoists had surrendered in the division. Another, 98 surrendered in the remaining part of the year, taking the total number of surrendered Maoists to 187 through 2023. 182 had surrendered in 2022. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in India, at least 4,105 Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) have surrendered in the Bastar Division.
Significantly, around 96.33 per cent of surrenders have taken place in the Bastar Division (4,105) as compared to the total surrender (4,261) in Chhattisgarh since March 6, 2000. The total number of surrenders in the state is 4,261 since March 6, 2000, while such surrenders across the country stood at 16,931.
The Bastar Division, spread over a geographical area of over 40,000 square kilometres, comprises seven of Chhattisgarh’s 33 districts: Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Kanker, Kondagaon, Narayanpur, and Sukma.
On April 18, 2024, Chhattisgarh Deputy Chief Minister (CM) and State Home Minister Vijay Sharma, stated that the Chhattisgarh Government is working on a new surrender policy in which Maoists who give up arms may have their FIRs quashed, but the terms would not be lenient for hard-core commanders. He thus stated,
Our govt [Government] is holding discussions to bring major changes in the surrender policy for Maoists. We want to encourage more insurgents to give up violence, join the mainstream and avail benefits of the state’s progress. Also, it is mulling wiping out FIRs of those who surrender.
However, on being asked if FIRs against Madvi Hidma or other top Maoist ‘commanders’ will also be quashed if they give up arms, the deputy CM asserted,
It’s Maoist central committee members who have fanned the fire of violence and launched this unending conflict in society. We are ready to talk with anyone, be it Hidma or any of the central committee members. They can surrender, but the provisions will not be the same for them. Quashing their FIRs will be difficult because of the harm they have caused. But there’s no ill-feeling towards them, we welcome them to surrender. Since govt is one of the parties in cases related to Maoist violence, it has a valid say in requesting the courts to quash FIRs.
Later, on April 22, 2024, during his visit to the Kanker District of the Division, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah asserted that the central government had eliminated terrorism from the country, as he issued a stern warning to Maoists in Chhattisgarh, asking them to surrender or else they would be rooted out from the state in two years:
As long as there is Naxalism, tribal brothers and sisters will not have access to electricity, schools, ration shops and hospitals. I would like to tell them (Naxalites) to surrender, otherwise the result of the fight is certain. We will finish them. We will root them out from Chhattisgarh.
Previously, the comprehensive ‘Naxal Eradication Policy’ of May 17, 2023, ensured that the Naxalites would get immediate assistance of INR 25,000 at the time of surrender. An active Naxalite with a reward of INR 500,000 or more on his or her head will be given an additional INR 1 million on surrender (this money will be in addition to the reward amount declared on them and the compensation payable for handing over their weapon). This additional amount of INR 1 million will be kept in a fixed deposit in a bank, and the interest earned on it will be given to the surrendered Naxalite. The entire amount will be handed over to the surrendered Naxalite after three years, following a review of his or her conduct. Naxalites buying agricultural land within three years of their surrender will get a full rebate in stamp duty and registration fees for land up to two acres.
In a specific initiative to facilitate the surrender of rebels, the then state government launched the Lon Varratu Scheme on June 12, 2020, in the Dantewada District, which offered a range of incentives to encourage insurgents to abandon their fight against the State and clear their names from the Police records. Speaking on the scheme, Dantewada SP Abhishek Pallava disclosed on August 12, 2021,
We launched the Lon Varratu campaign in June last year [2020] which has yielded good results as 400 ultras have quit violence under the drive so far [August 12, 2021]. Along with this drive, police have also been conducting a survey to assess the security situation, in view of the Maoist threat, in each and every village in the district. The villages are coded in three categories – red (hypersensitive), yellow (sensitive), and green (normal).
According to a report on May 5, 2024, 796 Maoists, including 180 cadres with rewards, have surrendered under the Lon Varratu campaign of the Dantewada Police since June 2020.
Similarly, ‘Poona Narkom’ (a local Gondi dialect expression, meaning New Dawn) was launched by the Sukma District Police on August 9, 2021, under which medical camps were organised in different places of the district, including the district headquarters, for the tribal villagers of rural areas, in collaboration with the district health department. Along with this, useful materials of daily use were also distributed to the villagers. Under the campaign, work was to be done to create awareness of the policies of the government, along with education, health, and employment. Under the Poona Narkom campaign, the youth will be made aware and trained in the field of employment by the Sukma Police. Regrettably, the specific number of surrenders under the campaign have not been recorded.
It is useful to mention here that most of the surrenders that have taken place in the Bastar Division have occurred under flagship campaigns like Poona Narkom and Lone Varratu, which are turning out to be success stories for the SFs in the hinterlands of Chhattisgarh.
The Bastar Division has accounted for 3,425 fatalities (893 civilians, 1,115 SF personnel, 1,395 Naxalites, and 22 Not Specified) in LWE-linked violence, since March 6, 2000. Appallingly, the Division recorded 91.16 per cent of the total LWE-linked fatalities in the state [3,757 fatalities (1,009 civilians, 1,223 SF personnel, 1,501 Naxalites, and 24 Not Specified)]. In the current year 128 fatalities (20 civilians, eight SF personnel, 100 Naxalites) had been recorded in the Bastar Division, so far (data till May 19, 2024).
With increasing surrenders in the ‘heartland’ areas of the Bastar Division, LWE violence has seen a dramatic decline in the rebels’ areas of activity in the Division and across the state. The proposed new surrender and rehabilitation policy, coupled with continued SF pressure and aggressive developmental initiatives, particularly in infrastructure and communications, could bring back increasing numbers of the remaining Maoists in the Bastar Division.
AFGHANISTAN
Taliban no longer enemy of Russia, says Russian official: In an interview with the Telegraph Agency of the Soviet Union (TASS), the Russian special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, stated that the Taliban in Afghanistan are no longer considered an enemy by his country. He said, “I don’t mean to say that the Taliban are our number one friend, but obviously, they are not enemies. The Taliban openly say that they trust Russia as the former Soviet Union’s successor.” Amu TV, May 16, 2024.
Meeting between Afghan activists and Taliban representatives taking place in Norway, says report: A meeting is currently taking place in Norway between representatives of the Afghan civil society and members of the Taliban. This meeting is being held at the invitation of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The two sides are discussing the human rights situation in the country and the future of Afghanistan. It has also been reported that the representatives are discussing political dialogue and economic empowerment. Hasht e Subh, May 14, 2024.
INDIA
China-Myanmar module of NSCN-IM helped banned outfits in Manipur, says NIA: The National Investigation Agency (NIA) said in a chargesheet that the “China-Myanmar module” of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) supported the cadres of two banned Meitei outfits, Kanglei Yaol Kanba Lup (KYKL) and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to infiltrate India in order to exploit the current ethnic unrest in Manipur with a larger goal to destabilise the State and wage a war against the Government of India (GoI). The Hindu, May 14, 2024.
UMHA extends ban on LTTE for five years: On May 14, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) extended the ban on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) for another five years as the group “continues to foster a separatist tendency amongst the masses” and as its affiliates “enhance the support for the LTTE in India, and particularly in Tamil Nadu,” which will impact the territorial integrity of the country. The UMHA said, “LTTE sympathisers living abroad continue to spread anti-India propaganda among Tamils, holding the Government of India responsible for the defeat of the LTTE, which, if not checked, is likely to develop a sense of hate among Tamil populace towards the Central government and the Indian Constitution.” The Hindu, May 15, 2024.
NIA attaches 33 properties belonging to Khalistani separatists since 2019, says report: National Investigation Agency (NIA) has attached 33 properties belonging to Khalistani separatists and their supporters since 2019. The Indian Express, May 17, 2024.
NIA attaches 100 properties linked to terrorists and separatist in J&K since 2019, says report: National Investigation Agency (NIA) has attached 100 properties in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) linked to terrorists and separatist leaders, since the amendment of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) in 2019. The Indian Express, May 17, 2024.
Committee to oversee Naxal-surrender policy of Karnataka appeal to Naxals to give up armed struggle, join mainstream: On May 16, the members of the State committee to oversee implementation of the rehabilitation policy to surrender/assimilate Left-Wing Extremists (LWEs) have appealed to LWEs to give up their armed struggle and join the mainstream. In a joint media conference in Shivamogga on May 16, writer Banjagere Jayaprakash, journalist Parvatheesh and advocate K.P. Sripal announced that Naxals willing to join the mainstream could contact the committee. The Hindu, May 17, 2024.
PAKISTAN
Twelve militants and one Army soldier killed during a cross-border infiltration attack along Pak-Afghan border in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: On May 14, 2024, at least 12 terrorists and one Army soldier were killed while five other Security Forces (SF) personnel sustained injuries when terrorists from Afghanistan in their attempt to infiltrate inside Pakistan attacked Pakistani checkpoints in the Teri Mangal area, along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, in Kurram District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The attack, launched with heavy weapons, targeted security installations within a 10 kilometres radius. Dawn, May 15, 2024.
62 people working on the CPEC project killed in last four years, says Federal Interior Ministry: In the last four years, 62 people working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have been killed in eight attacks across Pakistan, Federal Interior Ministry said. According to Federal Interior Ministry, a total of eight attacks on foreigners working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) took place between 2020 and 2024, resulting in the death of 62 people. Two attacks on Chinese engineers working on CPEC projects took place in Balochistan, four in Sindh and two in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Balochistan Post, May 17, 2024.
76 suspects killed in Karachi encounters this year, says Sindh IGP Ghulam Nabi Memon: Sindh Inspector General of Police (IGP) Ghulam Nabi Memon on May 18 said that 76 suspects have been killed in Karachi encounters from January to May 15 of 2024. Speaking to a delegation from the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) that called on him to discuss the law and order situation in Sindh, particularly in Karachi, the IGP said that 546 encounters were held in Karachi during the period. He said that 2249 suspects have also been nabbed from January 1 to May 15, 2024. The IGP said that 1480 Police encounters were held in different Districts of Sindh in which 146 suspects were killed while 7696 have been arrested. Ary News, May 19, 2024.
CTDs lacks clarity on militant groups’ dynamics and operational strategies, says PIPS report: A research report, ‘Pakistan’s Evolving Militant Landscape: State Responses and Policy Options’, released by Islamabad-based think tank Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) on May 14 said the Provincial Counter Terrorism Departments (CTDs) lack clarity on militant groups’ dynamics, connections and operational strategies, apart from facing issues related to coordination, funding and intelligence gathering. While CTDs have established their own specialised intelligence units and analysis wings to study militant behavior, they often lack skills to process data effectively and remain largely dependent on premier intelligence agencies. Dawn, May 16, 2024.
Pakistan and US recognise TTP as threat to regional and global: Pakistan and the United States on May 13 recognised that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Daesh terrorist group are posing a threat to regional and global security, underscoring close cooperation between the two countries to deal with the challenge. The two countries held a counter terrorism dialogue in Washington and a joint statement issued on May 13. The Express Tribune, May 14 , 2024.