Hello weapons! What new military allies did Ukraine get because of the Kremlin’s aggressive ambitions in different regions of the world
At the very beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was difficult for Kyiv to seek military assistance from third countries. The first allies of Ukraine were the countries of Europe and the United States, but it soon turned out that the amount of weapons that they were able to transfer was quite limited. Vladimir Putin came to the rescue: provoking conflicts in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, he deteriorated relations with a number of conditionally neutral countries to such an extent that they began negotiations with Ukraine on military assistance. If successful, Kyiv can rely on Israeli batteries of Patriot air defense systems, South Korean tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, as well as Argentine armored vehicles and artillery pieces.
South Korea: Putin’s visit to Kim changes mood
Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, South Korea has supported Ukraine: Seoul has joined the sanctions against Russia and has repeatedly imposed its own restrictions in response to the supply of North Korean ammunition to Russia and Russian oil to the DPRK. South Korea provides humanitarian and financial assistance to Ukraine, but has so far refused to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with lethal weapons, seeking to maintain relations with Russia no matter what. However, it was the South Koreans who handed over hundreds of thousands of artillery ammunition to the American allies, which allowed the United States, in turn, to send artillery rounds to Ukraine from its stockpiles.
South Korea provides humanitarian and financial assistance to Ukraine, but has so far refused to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with lethal weapons
The situation changed after Vladimir Putin’s visit to the DPRK, where the Russian-North Korean Treaty on Strategic Partnership was signed. After that, the South Korean authorities threatened to reconsider their position on the supply of weapons to Kyiv, and soon drew a red line – the supply of “the entire arsenal” to Ukraine will begin if Russia transfers high-precision weapons or relevant technologies to the DPRK.
It is not yet known on what scale this threat can be carried out, but Seoul has at its disposal both weapons that can be transferred immediately, and a powerful military-industrial complex that produces a variety of weapons and ammunition.
Here’s what South Korea already has. First of all, Ukraine would need the Soviet T-80U and BMP-3 tanks, which the Republic of Korea inherited in the 1990s on account of the Russian debt. In 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to capture a large number of these types of equipment (according to Oryx, 44 tanks and 53 infantry fighting vehicles, respectively), so the Ukrainian military must have experience working with it. The South Korean fleet of these vehicles is capable of becoming a source of spare parts for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In addition, Seoul may send artillery ammunition and air defense systems to Kyiv, for example, Chiron MANPADS (reports of the transfer of complexes to Ukraine have appeared before, but have not been confirmed).
In addition to the available weapons, the country can also produce its own – the Korean military-industrial complex is one of the largest in the world. South Korean companies are fulfilling large-scale long-term contracts for the supply of K2 Black Panther tanks, K9 Thunder self-propelled guns and FA-50 combat training aircraft to Poland and Romania. Most likely, the production lines are already loaded with orders, but with the consent of the recipients, priority may be given to Ukraine, as the United States has already done with missiles for NASAMS and Patriot air defense systems.
Korea also produces its own air defense systems, in particular the Cheongung-II, developed at one time with the technical support of the Russian companies Almaz-Antey and the Fakel Design Bureau. It is alleged to have good anti-missile capabilities (as, for example, the same Patriot or the French-Italian SAMP/T). Although South Korea itself needs to strengthen its air defense due to the missile threat from the DPRK, such complexes are already being produced – in particular, by order of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The possible supply of even one or two batteries will significantly improve the protection of Ukraine’s strategic facilities from Russian missile strikes.
Even two South Korean batteries of air defense systems will significantly improve the protection of Ukraine’s strategic facilities from Russian missile strikes
In a situation where Russia still needs North Korean ammunition to wage war, and soon it may need the Soviet armored vehicles available to the DPRK, it can be assumed that sooner or later the South Koreans will have to carry out their threats.
Israel: Russia’s support for Hamas has not gone unnoticed
For a long time, under Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, relations with Russia remained quite friendly, despite the annexation of Crimea and the “hybrid” war against Ukraine. The Israeli prime minister used his personal acquaintance with Putin in the election campaign and came to Moscow for the Victory Parade, and Putin, in turn, spoke at the Israeli Holocaust Forum.
A certain understanding was reached during the war in Syria: Russian air defense systems did not interfere with Israeli strikes on IRGC and Hezbollah facilities in Syria, and Russian aircraft, in turn, freely deployed over the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights to strike at southern Syria. The situation was not overshadowed even by weapons of Russian origin that periodically surfaced in the hands of Hamas militants.
Russian air defenses did not interfere with Israeli strikes on targets in Syria, and Russian aircraft calmly turned around over the Golan Heights
After the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, Israel became one of the countries that refused direct military assistance to Kyiv, despite the fact that Netanyahu was then in opposition. Then-Prime Minister Naftali Bennett tried to mediate peace talks and refused to authorize the supply of Israeli-made weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from third countries. Netanyahu’s return to the post of prime minister did not change the situation – the country limited itself to deploying a missile attack warning system in Ukraine.
However, Russian-Israeli relations deteriorated sharply with the start of Israel’s war with Hamas in October 2023. The Russian leadership took an openly pro-Hamas position and received the group’s delegations in Moscow. In the ruling Likud party, voices have been heard warning the Kremlin of the price of retribution for supporting Hamas (albeit rhetorical for the most part).
Obviously, the Russian-speaking population of Israel, which mainly stands on pro-Ukrainian positions, also plays a role. In addition, the Israeli leadership is clearly concerned about the growing cooperation between Moscow and Tehran (The Insider talked about it in more detail in the article about dictatorships that are partners of the Kremlin in the war with Ukraine).
At first glance, Israel is now hardly able to significantly help Ukraine – the fighting in the Gaza Strip does not stop, and a large-scale operation against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon may soon begin. However, even in this situation, the IDF arsenals will find equipment that the Armed Forces of Ukraine desperately need. First of all, we are talking about Patriot complexes, which Israel is decommissioning in favor of more modern systems. In June, it became known about negotiations between Ukraine, Israel and the United States on the transfer of these systems to Kyiv.
In addition, Israel may give the go-ahead for the supply of more modern air defense systems to Ukraine – for example, the famous “Iron Dome”, produced in the United States according to an Israeli project. Despite the rather limited range of missiles, they are significantly cheaper than missiles for Patriot, and are definitely suitable for protecting frontline cities, such as Kharkiv and Kherson, from rocket attacks and drone strikes.
Among other Israeli developments, the transfer of which to Ukraine by third countries seems likely, is the Spike ATGM family. Finally, Israel may issue a license to Ukraine or its partners to produce reconnaissance drones, as it previously issued licenses to Russia, where they were produced under the names “Zastava” and “Forpost”.
Israeli tactical radars RADA ieMHR have already been seen at the disposal of the Ukrainian military. However, so far, Israel has not supplied Kyiv with lethal weapons and has not allowed third countries to do so.
Argentina: chooses the United States, not Russia
Unlike the Republic of Korea and Israel, the change in Argentina’s position on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not directly related to the Kremlin’s activities. Putin even congratulated the new president, Javier Miley, on his election victory and said that he was counting on strengthening the partnership. However, Miley took a course in foreign policy towards North Atlantic integration in opposition to his opponents, the “Peronists”. Despite the ritualistic declarations that the British Falkland Islands belong to Argentina, other rhetoric of the Miley government is aimed at rapprochement with the United States and other Western countries. In a sense, Putin has become a hostage to his own propaganda: in recent years, the Kremlin has been so actively implanting in Latin America (as in many other regions) the concept of confrontation between Russia and the United States, hoping to gain political points on anti-American sentiments, that it has narrowed the space for neutrality itself. Now, any Latin American leader who wants to get closer to the United States will naturally consider himself an opponent of the Kremlin.
As part of this new Argentine policy, it has already been announced that Mi-17 helicopters previously purchased from Russia will be transferred to Ukraine. It is also planned to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with Dassault-Breguet Super Étendard deck attack aircraft, which Argentina still cannot use due to the British embargo on the supply of weapons and spare parts.
Argentina’s capabilities to provide military assistance to Ukraine are clearly not limited to aviation equipment. Of interest are more than 200 TAM medium tanks, which are currently undergoing modernization, but have not yet been tested in combat, as well as a line of vehicles created on their basis. In addition, Argentina has American M113 armored personnel carriers and HMMWV armored vehicles, as well as Italian OTO Melara Mod 56 artillery guns and Swedish RBS 70 MANPADS, already used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At a time when a major military conflict with its neighbors is extremely unlikely (despite Miley’s tense relations with Brazilian Socialist President Lula da Silva), Argentina may well transfer some of the equipment, especially if in return it is possible to order new equipment from the United States and other NATO countries, which, in turn, will contribute to strengthening cooperation with the West.
Other “doubters”
There are other states in the world that could provide direct military assistance to Ukraine, but do not do so for various reasons, including the “Russian factor”.
For example, at the beginning of 2024, Japan became the largest financial donor to Ukraine within the framework of international budget support mechanisms. Legislative restrictions imposed at one time to prevent the “revival of Japanese militarism” do not allow for direct military assistance, but Japan has already lifted some of them.
This will make it possible to supply the United States with PAC-3 anti-ballistic missiles for Japanese-made Patriot air defense systems to replace those supplied to Ukraine. Deliveries of 155-mm artillery ammunition can be organized according to a similar scheme, although a similar deal with the UK failed.
Another country that supplies Ukraine with ammunition through unnamed intermediaries is India. 155-mm artillery and 125-mm tank rounds of Indian production regularly “glow” in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (1, 2, 3). Officially, the Indian authorities deny deliveries to Ukraine, but apparently turn a blind eye to the purchase and resale of ammunition by third countries. The ambiguity of the situation is added by the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine simultaneously receive ammunition produced by Pakistan, an implacable enemy of India.
Officially, the Indian authorities deny deliveries to Ukraine, but turn a blind eye to the purchase and resale of ammunition by third countries
Theoretically, India could expand the range of supplies – in particular, it is planned to replace more than two thousand BMP-2s with American Stryker armored personnel carriers. Soviet-designed vehicles would be very useful to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, especially in such numbers, although they are significantly inferior to the American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles.
However, supplies from the Indian army are unlikely due to the policies of incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is trying to maintain relations with Russia despite its partnership with China, another strategic rival of India.
In addition, India is still counting on various arms supplies from Russia, up to warships, although the delivery dates of some of them are being disrupted – in particular, the S-400 air defense system could not be transferred to the customer on time, apparently due to the losses suffered by Russian air defense systems during the war with Ukraine.
Countries supplying weapons to Ukraine risk running into revenge from the Kremlin. Extremely indicative in this sense is the story of Ecuador, which abandoned plans to transfer Soviet weapons (including helicopters and air defense systems) to the United States for Ukraine in exchange for American samples after the Rosselkhoznadzor banned the import of bananas from this country, allegedly for sanitary reasons – after refusing to supply weapons, the ban was lifted. Purchases of ammunition within the framework of the “Czech initiative” have to be carried out within the framework of the strictest secrecy in order to prevent Russia from disrupting them by putting pressure on potential suppliers.
However, some countries do not seek to help Ukraine not because of Russian influence or threats, but because of at least the wary attitude of the current government towards the United States and the military-political bloc led by them.
For example, Brazilian President Lula da Silva is known for ambiguous statements about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and, despite the diplomatic efforts of French President Emmanuel Macron, refused to attend the peace summit organized by Ukraine in Switzerland. At the same time, Brazil could offer Ukraine Super Tucano turboprop aircraft capable of effectively combating Russian loitering munitions and reconnaissance drones, or at least allow the re-export of these aircraft.
So, there are still significant unused resources in the world to provide military assistance to Ukraine. Whether they will be activated depends on the diplomatic efforts of Kiev itself and its international partners, who should offer potential arms suppliers sufficiently favorable conditions and guarantee protection from possible Russian retaliatory measures.