Maoists: The End Of A Rebellion In India? – Analysis

On August 29, 2024, three alleged Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres were killed in an anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] operation carried out by the Security Forces (SFs) in the Narayanpur District of the Bastar division of Chhattisgarh. After the firing stopped and a search was carried out around the encounter site, bodies of three uniformed female Maoists, .303 rifles, .315 bore guns, a large amount of explosive material, and items of daily use were recovered. Inspector General of Police (IGP), Bastar Range, Sundarraj P. disclosed, “Initially, all the killed Maoist cadres have been identified as members of the North Bastar Division Committee and PLGA Company No. 05. Detailed identification proceedings are being carried out.”

On August 28, 2024, CPI-Maoist cadres abducted and killed a villager, Sudru Karam (27), on suspicion of being an ‘informer’, in Patelpara Timnar village under Mirtur Police Station limits in the Bijapur District of the Bastar division of Chhattisgarh. The ultras killed him by slitting his throat and then threw the body on the outskirts of the village.

On August 25, 2024, a villager, Situ Madvi, was killed by CPI-Maoist cadres accusing him of being a ‘police informer’, in the Bhairamgarh area of Bijapur District in the Bastar division. The Maoists held a ‘Jan Adalat’ (people’s/kangaroo court organised by the Maoists) in the Bhairamgarh area, and Situ Madvi, a resident of Jagur village, was accused of giving information to the Police. A pamphlet was left beside his body by the Bhairamgarh Area Committee of the Maoists, claiming that Madvi had been informing the Police since 2021, which led to his killing. The Maoists took Madvi and another person with them. They left the other villager after a warning, but killed Situ Madvi.

On August 23, 2024, suspected CPI-Maoist cadres killed Zamindar Lancha Punem of Poosanar village, under Gangaloor Police Station limits in Bijapur District, accusing him of working as a ‘police informer’.

On August 21, 2024, CPI-Maoists allegedly killed Pallepati Radha aka Neelso aka Banti Radha, a female Maoist cadre who worked as a ‘protection team commander’ in the Andhra-Odisha Border (AOB) area, branding her as a ‘police informer’. Radha was killed in a forest area near Chennapuram in Cherla Mandal (an administrative subdivision) in the Bhadradri Kothagudem District of Telangana. In a letter purportedly written by the Maoists that was found on the woman’s body, she was accused of being a ‘Police informer’.

According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), there have been a total of 256 fatalities (52 civilians, 20 SF personnel, and 184 Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists) in LWE-linked violence in the current year (data till August 31, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, the number of such fatalities was 100 (40 civilians, 24 SF personnel, and 36 Naxalites). An overwhelming surge of 156 per cent in the overall fatalities has been recorded in the comparative eight months’ timeframe.

Significantly, the surge in the overall fatalities in this timeframe demonstrates is overwhelmingly accounted for by LWE fatalities, signalling an escalation of SF operations to neutralize the Naxalites in their erstwhile areas of dominance.

In the fight against the rebels, SFs have lost 20 of their personnel, while neutralising 184 Naxalites across the country in 2024, maintaining a kill ratio of 1:9.2, the strongest in the last five years. In the corresponding period of 2023, the kill ratio was at 1:1.5; 2022 at 1:3; 2021 at 1:1.56; 2020 at 1:2.25; and 2019 at 1:2.80.

On a year-on-year basis, as well, the kill ratio has consistently favoured the SFs over the past five years: 2023 at 1:1.83; 2022 at 1:4.4; 2021 at 1:2.5; 2020 at 1:3.40; and 2019 at 1:3.14. The last recorded kill ratio favouring the Maoists was in 2010, at 1.01:1. Significantly, 2010 recorded the maximum fatalities in a single year, at a total of 1,180 (630 civilians, 267 SF personnel, 265 Naxalites, and 18 unspecified).

Nonetheless, the overall kill ratio has favoured the SFs at 1:1.67 since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on Left Wing Extremism (LWE)-linked violence across the country.

Civilian fatalities, a key index of security in a region, however, continue to take place with numbing regularity. 52 civilian fatalities have been recorded in the current year (data till August 31, 2024), as against 40 such fatalities in the corresponding period of 2023, yielding a significant spike of 30 per cent. The fatalities in this category stood at 42 in 2022, 40 in 2021, 30 in 2020, and 65 in 2019.

Annual data also suggests some sources of additional concern. Over the past five years, though civilian fatalities declined between 2019 and 2022, dropping from 99 in 2019 to 53 in 2022, they recorded a reversal to 61 in 2023, and are already at 52 in 2024, with almost four months remaining (data till August 31).

Similarly, in the SF category, while fatalities dropped from 49 in 2019 to 44 in 2020, they increased to 51 in 2021. SF fatalities dropped again to 15 in 2022 and more than doubled, at 31, in 2023. 20 SF fatalities have already been recorded in 2024 (till August 31). At peak, 630 civilians were killed in 2010 and 319 SF personnel in 2009.

Several visible parameters of violence indicate significant improvement in the situation relating to LWE activities across the country.

The number of overall LWE-linked terrorist incidents fell from 420 in 2023 to 382 in 2024 in the comparative eight-month timeframe. In particular, incidents of explosions orchestrated by the Maoists came down from 39 in 2023 to 30 in 2024. Incidents of arson carried out by the rebels came down from 25 in 2023 to eight in 2024.

Meanwhile, in the continuing campaign against the rebels, SFs have engaged in at least 85 incidents of exchange of fire with the Maoists in 2024, as compared to 61 such incidents over the same period in 2023. Through 2023, there were 89 such incidents. Further, at least 17 major incidents of killing (each involving three or more fatalities) in which SFs neutralised the rebels were registered in 2024, as compared to three such incidents over the same period in 2023. Through 2023, there were five such major incidents.

While declaring the observance of their ‘Martyrs’ Week’ (Shaheed Saptah), from July 28 to August 3, in a press release issued on July 22, 2024, CPI-Maoist party ‘secretary’ Ganesh declared that the Martyrs’ Week would be observed to honour the sacrifices of the comrades who had laid down their lives for the cause. Ganesh added,

In the last 6 months, 140 comrades have been martyred in Chhattisgarh alone. The Chhattisgarh government has launched a massive operation called Operation Kagar to suppress the Naxalites, which the organization has termed as a conspiracy to loot the wealth and resources of the dalits and tribals. The central and state governments are trying to eliminate our organization, but it’s impossible. The central government has announced Operation Kagar to eradicate Naxalism from the country within the next 3 years. In this war of destruction, the police are the main enemy, who are torturing people, molesting them, and killing them without any reason.

Ganesh also alleged that the government was trying to crush the movement by killing innocent people after branding them as Naxalites.

Significantly, on August 24, 2024, in a sensational pronouncement, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah asserted that the outlawed CPI-Maoist would be eliminated from the country by March 2026, under the strategy aimed at a final assault against the rebels. While chairing the review meeting of the inter-state coordination committee in Raipur, Chhattisgarh, UHM Shah asserted,

The fight against the Maoists has reached its final stage, and the country will be free from the Maoist problem by March 2026. The top 14 Maoist leaders were neutralised. From 2014 to ’24, there were a minimum number of cases related to Maoists registered.

Shah added that the strategy to counter the Maoists had twin objectives. First, the efforts were directed at establishing the rule of law in the Maoist-affected areas; and second, at developing the area that long witnessed destruction. Further, Shah claimed that Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra were the states that had been freed from the Maoist menace.

In another line of attack against the CPI-Maoist, on August 30, 2024, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) conducted searches in multiple locations across Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh to scuttle Maoist attempts to revive their presence in the Northern Regional Bureau (NRB) area. As part of the crackdown, nine locations linked with various accused and suspects in a case were searched. These included four locations in Punjab, two each in Uttar Pradesh and Haryana and one in Delhi. Several digital devices, including laptops, mobile phones, and pocket diaries, were seized during the searches conducted at the premises of suspects believed to be close aides of various accused in the case. According to the NIA, these suspects were receiving funds for the propagation of CPI-Maoist ideology from the erstwhile Eastern Regional Bureau (ERB) head Prashant Bose [a top Maoist leader who was instrumental in the merger of two prominent Maoist groups, the Maoist Communist Centre of India (MCC) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) People’s War (also known as the People’s War Group or PWG), to form CPI-Maoist in 2004. Bose is currently lodged in prison in Jharkhand]. The ERB, particularly Jharkhand, had been funding the suspects, believed to be long-time associates and over-ground workers (OGWs) of the accused, to recruit cadres and revive the organisation in the northern states.

On August 28, 2024, the NIA arrested CPI-Maoist leader, Bihari Paswan aka Rakesh aka Rishikesh, following extensive searches conducted at multiple locations in Bihar. A total of nine locations – seven in Begusarai and two in Gaya districts – were searched by NIA teams. The searches were conducted in the houses of associates of arrested CPI-Maoist top leaders/ ‘commanders’, OGWs, suspects, and supporters/sympathisers. Bihari Paswan, a CPI-Maoist ‘zonal committee member’, was arrested during the searches. Several mobile phones, SIM cards, and incriminating documents were seized during the searches. The case emanated from the arrest of two top CPI-Maoist leaders at Tekari Police Station, Gaya, on August 10, 2023. Subsequently, NIA registered a case on August 31, 2023, against three members of the proscribed outfit, identified as Pramod Mishra aka Sohan Da, a ‘Politburo’ member; Anil Yadav aka Ankush, a ‘sub-zonal committee member’; and Vinod Mishra, a CPI-Maoist sympathiser. They were found to be actively involved in the conspiracy to revive and strengthen the rebel group and were in the process of recruiting cadres and collecting ‘levies’ for this purpose.

Similarly, on August 13, 2024, NIA carried out searches at the premises of Konath Muralitharan aka Ajith aka Murali Kannamballi, a former CPI-Maoist Central Committee (CC) member and key aide of Maoist leader Sanjay Deepak Rao, in the Ernakulam district of Kerala, and seized several incriminating digital devices and documents. The searches were part of a case related to a conspiracy to wage war against the government by the members of the proscribed group. The accused had conspired to raise funds and recruit cadres to promote the activities of the CPI-Maoist in the Western Ghats region.

Meanwhile, focusing on the current epicentre of the Maoist insurgency, the Chhattisgarh Government has adopted several measures to keep the youth and children away from joining the Maoists, despite aggressive efforts by the rebels to expand recruitment. According to an August 31, 2024, report, for instance, the Chhattisgarh government has introduced interest-free education loans for students pursuing higher studies in Maoist-affected districts, with the aim of enhancing educational opportunities in these areas. The initiative is part of the ‘Chief Minister’s Higher Education Loan Interest Subsidy Scheme,’ which aims to provide financial relief to students pursuing technical and vocational courses. Students from Maoist-affected districts of Bastar, Bijapur, Dantewada, Jashpur, Kanker, Koriya, Narayanpur, Rajnandgaon, Surguja, Dhamtari, Mahasamund, Gariabandh, Balod, Sukma, Kondagaon, and Balrampur will be eligible for loans with zero per cent interest. Besides, students belonging to economically weaker families in other districts will be offered a reduced interest rate of 1 per cent for their higher education.

According to a February 7, 2024, PIB release, to address the LWE problem holistically, the Government of India (GoI) approved the “National Policy and Action Plan to address LWE” in 2015, envisaging a multi-pronged strategy involving security related measures, development interventions, ensuring rights and entitlements of local communities, among others.

On the development front, apart from the flagship schemes of the GoI, several specific initiatives have been taken in LWE-affected states, with a special thrust on the expansion of road networks, improving telecom connectivity, skill development, and financial inclusion. Some of the measures include:

For expansion of the road network, 13,620 kilometres of roads have been constructed in LWE-affected areas.
To improve telecom connectivity, 13,823 towers have been sanctioned in LWE-affected areas. More than 3,700 towers have already been commissioned so far. 
For financial inclusion of the local populace in the LWE-affected districts, 4,903 new Post Offices have been opened. Further, 955 Bank Branches and 839 ATMs have been opened in 30 of the most LWE-affected districts since April-2015.
For skill development, 46 ITIs and 49 Skill Development Centres (SDCs) have been made functional in LWE-affected districts.
For quality education in tribal blocks of LWE-affected districts, 130 Eklavya Model Residential School (EMRS) have been made functional in LWE-affected districts. 

Other crucial initiatives includes, inter alia:

Civic Action Programme (CAP): This Scheme is being implemented as a sub-scheme of the Umbrella Scheme ‘Modernization of Police Forces’ to bridge the gaps between SFs and local people through personal interaction and bring the human face of SFs before the local population. Under the Scheme, funds are released to the CAPFs, deployed in LWE-affected areas, for conducting various civic activities for the welfare of the local people. INR 1.2321 billion has been released to CAPFs since 2017-18.
Media Plan: This Scheme is being implemented as a sub-scheme of the Umbrella Scheme ‘Modernization of Police Forces’. The Maoists have been misguiding and luring the innocent tribals/ local population in LWE-affected areas through petty incentives or by following their coercive strategy. Their propaganda is targeted against the security forces and the democratic setup. The Government is implementing this Scheme to counter LWE propaganda and recruitment. Under the scheme activities such as the Tribal Youth Exchange programmes organised by Nehru Yuva Kendra Sangathan (NYKS), radio jingles, documentaries, pamphlets etc. are being conducted. INR 4.539 billion have been released under the scheme since 2017-18.
Aspirational District: The Ministry of Home Affairs has been tasked with the monitoring of the Aspirational Districts programme in 35 LWE affected districts.

Aggressive SF consolidation has squeezed the rebels out of most of their strongholds across the country, while they struggle to survive in their remaining safe havens, even as SF advances continue to erode such areas relentlessly. The Centre has, of course, announced a March 2026 deadline for the final ‘resolution’ of the Maoist insurgency across the country, and this is an attainable goal. The outcome could be hastened if the Maoists are provided a face-saving ‘political’ alternative at this juncture, when they are at their weakest. It is not necessary to kill every last Maoist to establish security and the national interest in the erstwhile areas of Maoist dominance.