Indonesia And BRICS: Should Indonesia Join Or Not? – Analysis

The bloc composed of Russia, Brazil, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) has emerged as one of the most influential economic and political alliances in the 21st century. With a combined GDP of over $25 trillion, BRICS represents a significant force in global economics and international diplomacy. For Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy and a member of the G20, joining BRICS presents both opportunities and challenges. The question arises: should Indonesia join BRICS? This essay argues that while BRICS offers Indonesia notable prospects, such as enhanced geopolitical influence and access to larger markets, the risks – including geopolitical tensions, trade imbalances, and conflicts with Indonesia’s democratic principles require a cautious approach.

BRICS and Background Global Influence

BRIC was coined in 2001 by economist Jim O’Neill to describe the fast-growing economies of Brazil, India, Russia, and China. Initially an economic concept, BRIC developed into a political and economic bloc aimed at challenging the dominance of Western powers like the United States and the European Union. The bloc’s influence extends beyond economics, affecting global governance, trade policies, and international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In 2010, South Africa joined, transforming the group into BRICS. BRICS has emphasised creating a multipolar world where economic and political power is more evenly distributed among developed and developing nations. One example is the New Development Bank (NDB), which provides financial support to infrastructure and sustainable development projects in member and partner countries.

Opportunities for Indonesia to join BRICS

Economic Growth and Trade Expansion

One of the most attractive prospects for Indonesia in joining BRICS is the potential to enhance trade and investment. As an emerging market, Indonesia could benefit from access to the extensive markets of BRICS countries, particularly China and India. These countries offer significant opportunities for Indonesia to boost its exports in commodities such as palm oil, coal, and electronics.

In addition, foreign direct investment (FDI) from BRICS nations could accelerate Indonesia’s infrastructure development, especially in critical sectors such as transportation, renewable energy, and technology. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a key example of potential collaboration. Indonesia is already part of the BRI, but formal membership in BRICS could deepen ties with China and attract more investments for infrastructure projects. Moreover, BRICS offers Indonesia opportunities for partnerships in technology research and development, especially with India in the digital economy and Russia in energy innovation.

Geopolitical and Diplomatic Influence

By joining BRICS, Indonesia could strengthen its geopolitical position. As the leader of ASEAN and a member of the G20, Indonesia has long advocated for regional stability and economic integration in Southeast Asia. Membership in BRICS would provide Indonesia with a stronger platform to influence global governance, particularly in shaping reforms within international institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Furthermore, BRICS emphasis on South-South cooperation aligns with Indonesia’s foreign policy vision of a more balanced global order. Indonesia could use its membership in BRICS to enhance its role as a mediator between developed and developing nations, as well as between Western powers and the Global South. This would elevate Indonesia’s diplomatic clout on issues such as climate change, trade, and security.

Strategic Realignment in Foreign Policy

Indonesia’s foreign policy has historically been one of non-alignment, balancing relationships with Western powers and emerging economies. By joining BRICS, Indonesia could further diversify its alliances and reduce over-dependence on Western countries like the United States and the European Union. This diversification would provide Indonesia with greater leverage in negotiations on trade, investment, and political matters. Moreover, by becoming a bridge between ASEAN and BRICS, Indonesia could strengthen its regional leadership.

Challenges and Risks for Indonesia in Joining BRICS
Geopolitical and Diplomatic Challenges

Joining BRICS would come with significant geopolitical risks for Indonesia, particularly in managing its relationships with Western powers. The United States and the European Union are major economic partners for Indonesia, and aligning too closely with BRICS could strain these ties. The growing tensions between BRICS members, particularly China and Russia, and Western nations could force Indonesia into difficult diplomatic positions, complicating its non-aligned stance.

Moreover, Indonesia’s leadership role in ASEAN could be jeopardized. ASEAN has traditionally maintained a neutral position in global affairs, focusing on consensus and regional-building. Membership in BRICS could be seen by some ASEAN members as compromising Indonesia’s commitment to regional cohesion, especially if it aligns more closely with China and Russia. This could undermine ASEAN’s principle of managing neutrality in great power rivalries in Southeast Asia.

Economic Competition and Trade Imbalances

Another major concern is the risk of exacerbating trade imbalances, particularly with China. Indonesia already runs a significant trade deficit with China, and deeper economic integration through BRICS might worsen this imbalance. While China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner, the competition between the two countries in sectors such as manufacturing and energy could create further economic vulnerabilities for Indonesia.

In addition, BRICS countries like China and India are also competitors in key areas where Indonesia seeks growth, such as technology, advanced manufacturing, and digital infrastructure. Membership in BRICS could expose Indonesia to increased competition from more advanced economies within the bloc, making it difficult for Indonesian industries to thrive in the global market.

Ideological Differences and Democratic Values

Indonesia’s commitment to democracy and human rights is another potential area of conflict. Some BRICS members, particularly China and Russia, have governance models that differ starkly from Indonesia’s democratic system. Aligning too closely with these authoritarian regimes could damage Indonesia’s international reputation as a model of democracy in Southeast Asia.

Furthermore, Indonesia’s Western allies may view closer ties with BRICS as a drift toward authoritarianism, which could lead to diplomatic isolation and economic repercussions.

Indonesia’s participation in BRICS could be perceived as undermining its democratic values, particularly if it aligns with countries that have been criticized for human rights abuses and lack of transparency.

Recommendations for Indonesia

Given the potential opportunities and challenges, Indonesia should approach BRICS membership cautiously. Rather than rushing to join, Indonesia could pursue a “strategic partnership” with BRICS members, particularly China and India, to enhance economic cooperation while maintaining its independence. Such an approach would allow Indonesia to benefit from BRICS’ economic and geopolitical advantages without fully committing to membership.

Indonesia should also focus on strengthening its role in ASEAN, ensuring that any decision regarding BRICS aligns with its regional priorities. By maintaining its leadership in ASEAN, Indonesia can continue to promote regional stability and economic integration while balancing its global ambitions. Finally, Indonesia should work to mitigate the risks of trade imbalances by negotiating more favourable trade agreements, particularly with BRICS member China. This would help ensure that Indonesia’s economic growth is sustainable and that it does not become overly dependent on any single country.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the prospect of Indonesia joining BRICS presents a complex set of opportunities and challenges. While membership could enhance Indonesia’s economic growth, geopolitical influence, and strategic alignment in a multipolar world, the risks of trade imbalances, diplomatic tensions, and ideological conflicts cannot be ignored. Indonesia’s decision to join BRICS should be guided by careful consideration of its long-term strategic interests, ensuring that it balances its relationships with both BRICS members and traditional Western partners. A cautious and pragmatic approach, focused on partnership rather than full membership, would enable Indonesia to navigate the shifting dynamics of global power while safeguarding its economic and political sovereignty.