The China-US Geopolitical Rivalry And Myanmar’s Civil War – Analysis

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Naypyidaw to meet junta boss Min Aung Hlaing in August has rocked Myanmar’s political landscape. Two days after Wang’s visit to the Myanmar capital, officials from the US State Department held talks with leaders of the shadow National Unity Government and “K3C”, pledging full support for Myanmar’s revolution and the restoration of democracy.

The K3C comprises four of Myanmar’s oldest ethnic armed organisations – the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and Chin National Front (CNF).

Junta media reported that Wang stressed three points during his visit; that China opposes armed conflicts in northern Shan State, will provide technical and financial assistance for the junta’s proposed poll next year, and does not accept foreign interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs.

Meanwhile, changes are also taking place in Myanmar’s neighbours. Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned and fled the country after weeks of deadly anti-government protests, and a new prime minister has taken office in Thailand.

Today, the global political landscape is shaped by the rivalries between world powers seeking to promote their national and geopolitical interests. In this context, many governments subscribe to the theory that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” when it comes to protecting and promoting their national interests.

The rivalry between the global powers US and China, which has developed by leaps and bounds over the past five decades, keeps growing, affecting many smaller countries in various ways.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, China has been the global geopolitical order’s flagship communist state. China has demonstrated that communism can create economic prosperity more swiftly than liberal democracy. Its foreign policy features non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. It upholds the “One China policy.”

China is implementing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), an ambitious infrastructure programme covering more than 70 countries. The project is intended to promote “Chinese Civilization.” Though by no means an inevitability after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rivalry between democracy and communism has indeed resurfaced in the 21st century.

Let’s take a look at how it is affecting conflicts in Myanmar, and the popular uprising in Bangladesh.

The Myanmar military seized power in a coup from the democratically elected government in February 2021. The regime carried out a brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters who opposed the coup, killing more than 5,000 people and jailing more than 20,000 others. Many young people took up arms against the regime in response, ushering in a widespread armed revolt.

In October 2023, the Brotherhood Alliance of three ethnic armies launched Operation 1027 against the regime, seizing 11 townships in northern Shan State, and 10 townships in Arakan State over the months since. Thousands of junta soldiers including high-ranking officers have surrendered in the fighting.

After losing Lashio, the capital of northern Shan State bordering China, the junta boss in a televised address alleged that foreign countries are meddling in Myanmar’s affairs, indirectly referring to China.

The next day, Myanmar military sympathisers who portrayed themselves as common folk staged a protest against China, and pro-junta media also spread anti-Chinese sentiments. It was followed by Wang Yi’s visit to Naypyidaw.

China has good ties with some revolutionary groups in Myanmar, and is also a traditional ally of the Myanmar military.

But China neither likes nor trusts junta boss Min Aung Hlaing. On the other hand, the National Unity Government (NUG), which is made up mostly of National League for Democracy (NLD) party members, is seen as close to the West, so China has not yet made visible relations with it. However, in terms of interests, Myanmar is of vital importance to China for the access that the Southeast Asian nation provides to the Indian Ocean. China has received permission to build a deep-sea port in the Bay of Bengal for its BRI plans in Myanmar’s Arakan State and Bangladesh.

China does not, however, seem to accept the slogans of the revolutionary groups about rooting out the Myanmar military. This is probably why China has officially said it supports the junta’s planned election. Today, China cannot say that all stakeholders have discussed the issue of Myanmar in the peace dialogue.

The United States, the world’s most powerful democratic country, has said that it does not recognise the Myanmar regime, nor does it accept the junta’s planned sham election. That is why the Burma Act was passed in the US Congress in 2023, to stand with the democratic forces and help them. But to this day, the Myanmar revolutionary forces have not received any material support from the United States.

The US will never support Myanmar’s revolutionary forces in the way that it does with Ukraine and Israel. The reason is that the Myanmar conflict will never threaten the national security of the United States. The US will symbolically support the anti-regime forces as long as it deters Chinese interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs.

Neighbouring Bangladesh, which saw the opposition party crushed in consecutive elections – paving the way for the reappointment of long-ruling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and precipitating the popular revolt this August – has drawn closer to China over the past 10 years, accepting and approving many parts of the BRI. Everyone knows that China has actively contributed to Bangladesh’s many development projects over the past decade.

A few months before Sheikh Hasina fled Bangladesh, she claimed there was a plot afoot by a Western power or powers to “carve out a Christian country taking parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar with a base in the Bay of Bengal,” and potentially to include part of northeast India, which also shares borders with Myanmar and Bangladesh.

And ahead of the Bangladesh elections in January of this year, Hasina claimed that a “white man” had offered her a smooth return to power in exchange for an airbase. Speculation was rife that she was referring to a US overture, and that the land-for-airbase in question was St. Martin’s Island in the Bay of Bengal.

It must be said that there is no reason why the United States needs a military base in the Bay of Bengal.

On the other hand, India has kept Myanmar’s military regime from leaning completely toward China, and is still quietly observing the military regime and the resistance forces. Apart from India selling arms to the military regime in the Myanmar conflict, it has not made any political dealings public.

In sum, the Myanmar issue is directly related to the interests of China and the United States. We must take into account whether a group leaning to the left of China and the US will become the government in elections to be held by the interim government in Bangladesh, and what game plan China might have had behind the overthrow of the Hasina government.

If China were to completely side with the military in Myanmar, the civil war could become even more intense, and Myanmar could go from a failed state to a disintegrating country. Even if the military regime releases Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and holds an election during this period, there will be very few places where elections can be held and the futility of a deeply flawed and partial election will be laid bare for all to see.

No matter how you look at it, China’s influence in the Myanmar conflict cannot be completely ruled out, nor can Myanmar afford to unquestioningly carry out China’s agenda. Myanmar’s revolutionary forces will need to deepen their relations with Bangladesh. The government changes in neighbouring countries and China’s willingness to take steps in Myanmar’s internal affairs will greatly affect the development of Myanmar in the future.

Fierce competition and growing interests in the Bay of Bengal among powerful countries are inextricably tied to Myanmar’s civil war. It has become more important in the revolution against the military dictatorship to practice a clever politics that balances Chinese and the US interests in Myanmar and the Bay of Bengal.