SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Target Acquired
On October 25, 2024, a 19-year-old under training Army lieutenant, Arif Ullah, who was on leave at his hometown, was gunned down by unidentified militants during prayers in a mosque in the Sarai Naurang area of Lakki Marwat District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Two other persons also sustained injuries in the incident. According to a press release from the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Gentleman Cadet Arif Ullah was offering prayers in the mosque when the attack took place. The cadet was undergoing training in Kakul, but had returned to his hometown of Lakki Marwat on leave, ISPR said.
On October 14, 2024, a Frontier Corps (FC) trooper, Gulzar Ali, was shot dead while two civilians sustained injuries after unidentified assailants opened fire on them in the Tank District of KP. Gulzar Ali was home on holidays.
October 9, 2024, an FC trooper, on leave and visiting his family, was abducted in the Tank District of KP. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) affiliated channels claimed responsibility for the abduction.
These incidents of targeting ‘on-leave’ SFs point to a new trend in recent months in KP. Though target killings SF personnel, particularly when they are off duty or visiting their homes, has been ongoing since 2023, when two such fatalities were recorded, there has been a sharp rise in such killing in 2024. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 16 SF personnel have been killed in 16 incidents of such targeted attack in the current year.
There is also a wider surge of attacks on SFs in the province. According to partial data compiled by SATP, KP has recorded 324 SF fatalities in 2024 (data till October 27, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, there were 260 SF fatalities. During the whole of 2023, there were 329 such fatalities. In fact, with almost two months remaining in the current year, SF fatalities in 2023 threaten to be the highest in a year since 2009, when 494 such fatalities were recorded.
According to a Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) report published on September 19, 2024, as many as 337 personnel of law enforcement agencies (LEAs) were killed while 616 injured in terrorist attacks carried out by terrorist outfits in the province this year. Dera Ismail Khan suffered the largest number of SF casualties, at 63, while Bannu suffered 58, North Waziristan 50 and South Waziristan 38 fatalities. At least 29 SF personnel were killed in Bajaur, 22 in Khyber, 18 in Peshawar and 16 in the Kurram District. Eleven SF personnel each were killed in Malakand and Mardan, 10 in Kohat, eight in Dir, two in Mohmand and one in Hazara District.
Some of the major targeted attack on Security Forces in the current year include:
October 24: At least 10 Frontier Constabulary (FC) personnel were killed and another three sustained injuries when their post was targeted by militants in the Draban area of Dera Ismail Khan District.
October 8: At least eight SFs personnel were killed and two were injured in a militant attack in Kurram District. The Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) faction of TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
July 15: A total of 12 terrorists, including two suicide bombers, and eight SF personnel were killed in a terrorist attack in the Bannu Cantonment of Bannu District. Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad, a faction of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group of TTP took responsibility for the attack.
March 16: Seven soldiers, including two officers, were killed in a suicide attack on an SF post in the Mir Ali area of North Waziristan District. Hafiz Gul Bahadur affiliated Jaish Al-Fursan claimed responsibility for the attack.
February 5: At least 10 Policemen were killed and another six personnel sustained injuries in a terrorist attack on the Chaudhvan Police Station in the Dera Ismail Khan District.
January 8: At least five Police personnel were killed and 22 were injured in a bomb attack on a Police vehicle in the Mamond tehsil (revenue unit) of Bajaur District. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack.
The surge of targeted attacks against SF personnel can be attributed to the three principal factors: the United States (US)-Western withdrawal from neighbouring Afghanistan; the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 14, 2021; and finally, the collapse of ‘official talks’ between the Pakistan Government and TTP on November 28, 2022. The spike in violence in KP in 2023 was foreseeable, when TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali asked his fighters to resume attacks in the wake of the collapse of peace-talks.
On January 2, 2024, the Federal Ministry of Interior informed the Senate (Upper House of Parliament) that the continuous influx of TTP cadres in significant numbers, with recruitment, training and deployment of suicide bombers, in the merged Districts [districts which were part of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and now merged with KP] of KP was “cause for concern”.
Significantly, when the US pulled its forces out from Afghanistan in 2021, it left behind around USD 7 billion worth of military equipment and weapons, including firearms, communications gear, and even armoured vehicles. The Afghan Taliban seized the weapons during the chaotic US withdrawal. On September 8, 2023, the Pakistan Foreign Office expressed concern over the “advanced weapons” being used by terrorists operating out of Afghanistan, in attacks in Pakistan, particularly on its security agencies. “These modern weapons have fallen into the hands of terrorists in Afghanistan, who are using these [weapons] to attack Pakistan and its security agencies,” Foreign Office Spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch stated.
Meanwhile, the TTP is now the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan, enjoying operational and logistical support from both the Afghan Taliban and factions of the Al Qaeda terrorist network. “The Taliban do not conceive of TTP as a terrorist group: the bonds are close, and the debt owed to TTP significant,” states the 15th report of the ISIL (Daesh) and Al-Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring Team, submitted to the UN Security Council. Estimating its strength at around 6,000-6,500 fighters, the report notes that TTP is now the largest among the two dozen or so such groups that enjoy freedom to manoeuvre, under the oversight of the Taliban regime. The report notes that TTP “continues to operate at significant scale in Afghanistan and to conduct terrorist operations into Pakistan from there, often utilising Afghans”. “TTP has intensified attacks against Pakistan, significantly increasing from 573 in 2021 to 715 in 2022 and 1,210 in 2023, with the trend continuing into 2024,” the report, updated until May 28, 2024, states.
Further, a new United Nations Security Council (UNSC) report released July 31, 2024, highlighted the severe threat to Pakistan’s security from TTP, noting increased collaboration between the TTP and the Afghan Taliban in cross-border terrorist attacks, primarily targeting Pakistani military posts. “With Taliban acquiescence, and at times support, TTP has intensified attacks inside Pakistan primarily targeting military installations,” the report from the UNSC’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team concerning ISIL (Daish), Al-Qaeda and associate groups, noted.
Earlier on December 15, 2023, Pakistan urged a United Nations (UN) panel to investigate how TTP was acquiring modern weaponry to carry out terrorist attacks in the country. Usman Jadoon, Pakistan’s Deputy Permanent Representative, highlighted the alarming trend during a UN Security Council (UNSC) open debate on the threat posed by the diversion, illicit trafficking, and misuse of small arms and light weapons. He argued that terrorist groups like TTP acquire such weapons “from illicit arms markets or receive them from entities that want to destabilise a particular region or country.”
On September 9, 2024, frustrated with targeted killing by terrorists, Police personnel of Lakki Marwat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa staged a protest sit-in against the terrorist attacks targeting law enforcement personnel. A consultation was held at the Police lines, where they presented their demands, including a call for full authority for police operations, and protection for officers. Following the discussions, they blocked the Bannu-Mianwali Road of the Indus Highway as part of their demonstration.
Further on September 11, the Bajaur District Police announced the boycott of duties for Anti-Polio Campaigns because of Police consistently being targeted and killed while protecting polio eradication teams. The announcement was made in a video clip by scores of Policemen. The 50-second clip, seen by Dawn, shows several Policemen gathered at the Police Lines in Khar, announcing their decision to boycott the vaccination drive in protest. Policemen from at least three Southern Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had already been protesting against the targeted attacks over the preceding week.
In the wake of this new development, while the terrorists were equipped with modern sophisticated weapons, including sniper rifles and thermal sensors, the provincial Police forces who stand on the first line of defence, remain ill-equipped. On October 1, 2024, the Chief Minister of KP, Ali Amin Gandapur, chaired a high-level meeting in Peshawar to discuss peace and security in the province, particularly in the merged Districts of the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and southern KP. To enhance the capabilities of Police, 122 bulletproof vehicles were allocated to former FATA Districts, PKR 7 billion was provided for the Police in the merged districts, and PKR 1 billion was released for the purchase of Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs). Additionally, 1,300 Police positions were announced for the Tank and Lakki Marwat Districts in Southern KP. Measures proposed by the Tribal Grand Jirga are also to be considered, including compensation for losses suffered by Tribal Districts’ residents.
Despite the Provincial government’s claim of anti-terrorism measures to curb terrorism in the province, the terrorists continue to thrive and to target SF personnel with impunity.
Maharashtra: Gadchiroli – Deepening Containment
On October 21, 2024, five Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres were killed in an encounter with Security Forces (SFs) in a forest area under the Bhamragadh Taluka (revenue division) in the Gadchiroli District of Maharashtra. The slain Maoists were identified as Sukhmati, Rita aka Deve and Jaya (women cadres), and Basant and Saoji (male cadres). Many criminal cases, including encounters, arson, murder, etc., were had been registered against these Maoists, who carried a combined bounty of INR 3.8 million. One Policeman also sustained injuries in the encounter. Police also recovered five guns from the encounter site.
A press release, subsequent to the incident, issued by the office of the Gadchiroli Superintendent of Police (SP) stated,
In view of the November 20 elections, a group of Maoists had gathered in the forest on the Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh border for the last two days and was planning an attack. As many as 22 teams of C-60 commandos and two squads of the CRPF [Central Reserve Police Force] under the supervision of senior officers launched an anti-Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] operation. As soon as they reached the area, the SFs faced indiscriminate firing from Naxalites. The security personnel immediately retaliated, and in the ensuing exchange of fire, five Maoists were killed.
Earlier, on July 17, 2024, 12 CPI-Maoist cadres were killed in an encounter between C-60 commandos and Maoists at Wandoli village in Gadchiroli District. 12 bodies of Maoists were recovered from the spot along with seven automatic weapons, including three AK-47s, two INSAS (Indian Small Arms System) assault rifles, one carbine, and one SLR (self-loading rifle). Two SF personnel, including a C-60 sub-inspector and one jawan, were injured in the encounter. SP Neelotpal disclosed,
Credible information was received yesterday morning that 12 to 15 members of Korchi-Tipagad and Chatgaon-Kasansur joint Local Organisation Squad (LOS) are camping in a forest area near Chhattisgarh border in Wandoli village with an aim to carry out subversive activities in view of the upcoming Martyrs’ Week observed by Naxalites (between July 28 and August 3). Entire Korchi-Tipagad and Chatgaon-Kasansur LOS of Naxalites, including three senior cadres of the rank of divisional committee member, five area committee members and four Dalam (squad) members carrying a total reward of Rs 86 lakhs [INR 8.6 million] were wiped off in the encounter. Most of north Gadchiroli has been cleared of armed Maoist formations.
On May 13, 2024, three Maoists were shot dead in an encounter near Katrangatta village in Bhamragad Taluka in Gadchiroli District. The killed Maoists included Permili Dalam (armed squad) ‘commander’ Vasu Samar Korcha, who carried an INR 2.2 million bounty; Reshma Madkam, an ‘Area Committee Member’ and Kamla Madavi. Arms, including three automatic weapons — one AK-47, one carbine, and one INSAS assault rifle — and Maoist literature and other belongings were recovered from the incident location. “Korcha and the two women were the last of the three remaining members of the dalam. The trio was trying to mobilise villagers and plan subversive activities,” SP Neelotpal said. At one time, the Permili Dalam lorded over a 1,000-square-kilometres patch in the Maharashtra.
These incidents in Gadchiroli are indicative of the deepening containment against the rebels in the district, with the aggressive action against the Maoists resulting in the decimation of the rebel formations.
According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 24 Naxalites have been killed by SFs in the Gadchiroli District in 2024 (data till October 27). During the corresponding period of 2023, SFs had neutralised four Naxalites, and another two rebels in the remaining period of 2023, taking the total to six Naxalites through 2023. Two Naxalites were neutralised in 2022, and another 49 in 2021.
On the other hand, in the fight against the Naxalites, SFs have not lost a single trooper in the district in the current year (till October 27). During the corresponding period of 2023 also, no SF trooper was killed, nor any in the remaining period of 2023. Moreover, no SF fatality was registered in 2022 as well as in 2021. The last SF fatality was recorded on August 14, 2020, when a Police Constable, Dushyant Nandeshwar (26) was killed while another Constable, Dinesh Bhosale was injured when a CPI-Maoist ‘action team’ shot them in a market at Kothi village under Bhamragad tehsil in Gadchiroli District.
Significantly, since 2021, the SFs have emphatically crushed rebel activities/developments in Gadchiroli. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started documenting Naxalite violence and activities in the district and the State, the kill ratio emphatically remained in favour of SFs in 2006 at 1:16.5; 2007 at 1:4; 2008 at 1: 1.75; 2011 at 1: 2.22; 2013 at 1:3.85; 2016 at 1:11; 2017 at 1: 4.66; 2018 at 1: 25.5; and 2020 at 1:3. On the other hand, the Maoists got the better of SFs in 2005, with a ratio of 2.12:1; 2009 at 1.40:1; 2010 at 5:1; 2012 at 2.6:1; 2014 at 1.1:1; and 2015 at 2:1. Nevertheless, the overall kill ratio in the district remained in favour of SFs at 1:2.09.
In the interim, according to the SATP database, SFs have already arrested nine Naxalites in 2024 (data till October 27) in the Gadchiroli District, in addition to seven in 2023. 366 Naxalites have been arrested in the district since March 6, 2000. Moreover, at least 12 Naxalites have surrendered in 2024, in addition to three in 2023. 281 Naxalites have surrendered in the district since March 6, 2000. The total number of arrests in the state is 490 since March 6, 2000, while 307 Naxalites have surrendered.
Civilian fatalities, a key index of security, have been following a cyclical trend in the district, without considerable relief. Three civilians have been killed in the district in the current year (till October 27). During the corresponding period of 2023, the Maoists killed one civilian. Through 2023, five civilian fatalities were recorded, in addition to five civilians killed in 2022 and four in 2021. The most common alibi given by the Maoists targeting the civilians was that their victims were working as ‘informers’ or ‘spying’ for the Police.
Several other parameters indicate that the Naxalites are losing their sway in Gadchiroli and are also unable to orchestrate significant violence or disruptive activities due to aggressive SF consolidation in the district over the past four years and 10 months, since 2020. No major incidents (each involving three or more fatalities) in the civilian or SF category have been reported since 2020. At peak, four such incidents each were recorded in 2009 and 2010. Eight arson-related incidents have been recorded since 2020 – three in 2020, one in 2021, three in 2022, and one in 2023. At peak, 11 such incidents were recorded in 2019. The Maoists have engineered one incident of explosion since 2020, on May 27, 2019, during an exchange fire with a team of elite C-60 Commandos in Gadchiroli District. At peak, five such incidents were recorded in 2005.
Gadchiroli, with a total area of 14,412 square kilometres, of which 11,694 square kilometres, i.e., 78.40 per cent, fall under forest cover, has, for long, provided an ideal and safe landscape for the Maoists to operate in, as the task of locating and sanitising extremists’ sanctuaries becomes difficult due to the exigencies of the terrain. Moreover, the district shares borders with Chhattisgarh, the worst Naxalite-affected Indian state, as well as with Telangana, historically the heartland of the insurgency, making it a perfect hideout for the Maoists. As a result, the district emerged as the epicentre of LWE violence in Maharashtra. Since March 6, 2000, Gadchiroli has recorded at least 721 Maoist-linked fatalities, including 166 SF personnel, 348 Maoists, 195 civilians and 12 in the unspecified category. At its peak in 2009, Gadchiroli recorded at least 99 fatalities, including 52 SF personnel, 37 Maoists, and 10 civilians. Thereafter, however, the district has seen a noticeable weakening of rebel strength.
According to an October 25, 2024, media reportage, 10,000 additional paramilitary forces, approximately 150 drones, and 100 anti-mine vehicles have been deployed for poll preparations in Gadchiroli and Gondia, the two Maoist-affected districts of Maharashtra, to contain any potential sabotage the rebels during the upcoming Assembly election on November 20, 2024. SFs focused on sealing off the borders with neighbouring states, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Madhya Pradesh, from where Maoists could sneak in to disrupt polling. Further, SFs also decided to launch joint operations in the heart of the Maoist headland, Abujhmadh, to cut off possible entry and exit routes. The passage connecting Abujhmadh and the Maoists’ alternative stronghold in the Maharashtra-Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh (MMC) zone is also being cut off, with strong deployment.
Sustained SF efforts to completely sanitise the ostensible ‘Red Corridor’ are essential to restoring an enduring peace in Gadchiroli and the region. The declining trends in violence in the district suggest that Maoist capacities are at a terminal stage in this erstwhile area of dominance. Aggressive operations to consolidate the gains are necessary to establish a lasting peace in the region.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
October 21-27, 2024
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.