SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW Volume 23 No. 35

Maharashtra: Reinforcing Gains

On February 11, 2025, the inspector of a special commando unit C-60, Mahesh Kavadu Nagulwar (39), died, succumbing to injuries sustained during an anti-Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) operation in the Bhamragad Tehsil (revenue unit) of Gadchiroli District. Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis confirmed the Police inspector’s death during an exchange of fire at Bhamragadh, where the Police team was dismantling a Maoist camp. Following the encounter, the Police team conducted a thorough search of the area and recovered significant Maoist materials, including an approximately 100 feet of Cordex wire, 15 Gelatin sticks, four detonators, solar plates, walkie-talkies, and other equipment used in daily operations by the rebels.

On February 1, 2025, ex-panchayat samiti (local governing body) chairman Sukhram Madavi was killed by CPI-Maoist cadres at Kiyer village in the Bhamragad Tehsil of Gadchiroli District for allegedly helping Security Forces (SFs) set up permanent posts in the region. The Maoists left a pamphlet near the body stating that Madavi earned the Maoists’ ire for assisting the Police in opening posts to facilitate mining operations by private companies. The Maoists were also angered by Madavi’s alleged role in helping disenchanted cadres surrender to the Police. However, Superintendent of Police (SP) Neelotpal claimed that the Maoists falsely accused Madavi of being a ‘police informer’ and of assisting the Police set up new camps, including one at Pengunda.

Two persons have thus been killed (one SF Inspector and one civilian) in the two incidents of Left Wing Extremist (LWE)-linked violence in Maharashtra in 2025, thus far (data till February 16).

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), three civilians were killed through 2024 in Maharashtra. There were five such killings in 2023. Since March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE-linked violence across the country, a total of 205 such killings have been documented in the state, including a high of 36 civilian fatalities in 2011.

Significantly, SFs did not suffer any loss in Maharashtra through 2024, as well as in 2023. The state recorded no loss in this category through 2022 and 2021. The last SF fatality recorded was on August 14, 2020, when a Police constable was killed and another constable sustained injuries, when a CPI-Maoist ‘action team’ opened fire on them in a market at the Kothi village under the Bhamragad Tehsil of Gadchiroli District. In remaining part of the year, another two fatalities were recorded in 2020, bringing the count of SF fatalities to three through 2020. The SF category recorded a high of 52 fatalities in 2009. A total of 171 such killings have been recorded since March 6, 2000.

Meanwhile, SFs neutralised at least 24 Maoists in 2024, in addition to six in 2023. A maximum of 51 Maoist fatalities was recorded in 2018. A total of 351 such killings have been recorded in the state since March 6, 2000.

Significantly, the last SF:Maoist kill ratio recorded was 1:3 in 2020. There were no SF fatalities between 2021 and 2024. Meanwhile, the favourable kill ratio for the SF was 1:25.5, recorded in 2018. Significantly, the overall SF:Maoist kill ratio in the state since 2000 has been 1:2.05, in favour of the SFs.

In 2024, SFs arrested nine Naxalites (LWEs), in addition to seven such arrests in 2023, according to the SATP database. Since March 6, 2000, 490 Maoists have been arrested. Mounting SF pressure also resulted in the surrender of 19 Naxalites in 2024, in addition to five in 2023. Since March 6, 2000, total surrenders stand at 333, including 21 such surrenders already recorded in the current year (data till February 16). In the most recent surrender, on February 10, 2025, four wanted CPI-Maoist cadres, collectively carrying a bounty of INR 2.8 million, surrendered before the Police and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Gadchiroli District. The surrendered Maoists include Ashok Pochya Sadmek aka Balanna aka Chandrashekhar (63), a ‘divisional committee member (DVCM)’, Vanita Dohe Zore (54), ‘area committee member (ACM)’, Sadhu Lingu Mohanda aka Shailesh aka Sameer (30) and Munni Podiya Korsa (25), both Platoon Members of Platoon No. 32.

Other parameters of LWE-linked violence also indicate significant improvement in the security situation in the state. There was no major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) involving the Maoists in 2024, as well as in 2023. The last major incident was recorded on May 1, 2019, when at least 15 SF personnel of the special commando unit C-60 of the Maharashtra Police, and one civilian driver, were killed in an ambush by CPI-Maoist cadres, who triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) explosion on the Dadapur Road near Lendali Nullah in Jamburkheda village under Kurkheda Police Station limits in Gadchiroli District.

The Maoists failed to carry out any incident of arson in 2024, as against one such incident in 2023. On March 2, 2023, a group of CPI-Maoist cadres set three road construction machines on fire between Pursalgondi and Alenga in the Etapalli Tehsil in Gadchiroli District. Further, the Maoists did not issue any bandh (shut down strike) call in 2024, as against one such call in 2023. On November 23, 2023, the CPI-Maoist called for a ‘Gadchiroli bandh’ on November 30 in protest against Police action in dispersing anti-mining protesters from Todgatta village in Etapalli Tehsil, Gadchiroli District. The CPI-Maoist ‘western sub-zonal bureau’ called for the bandh.

According to the SATP database, all Maoist-linked fatalities Maharashtra in 2024 were reported from Gadchiroli District alone. Likewise, in 2023, all fatalities were reported from Gadchiroli. Meanwhile, an analysis of underground and over-ground activities of the Maoists in 2024 indicated that, while Gadchiroli remained highly-affected, Gondia and Pune were considered marginally affected. By comparison, in 2023, Gadchiroli remained highly-affected, while Gondia was marginally affected.

An analysis of the overall fatalities recorded in Maharashtra since March 6, 2000, indicates that, out of 738 fatalities (205 civilians, 171 SF personnel, 351 Naxalites and 12 Unspecified), at least 722 (196 civilians, 167 SF personnel, 348 Naxalites, and 12 Unspecified) were recorded in Gadchiroli alone, followed by seven (five civilians and two SF personnel) in Gondia, three (one civilian and two SF personnel) in Bhandara, two (one civilian and one LWE) in Nagpur, and one civilian in Aurangabad. The location of three fatalities (one civilian and two Maoists) remains unspecified. Maharashtra has a total of 35 districts. The last fatality outside Gadchiroli was recorded on October 18, 2019, in Gondia District, when CPI-Maoist cadres shot dead a civilian, Bhagchand Dhurve (50), suspecting him of being a ‘police informer’.

Against the backdrop of the declining impact of the CPI-Maoist, especially in Gadchiroli district, the epicenter of Maoist violence in Maharashtra, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) has taken several steps against LWE elements in Maharashtra. Most recently, on January 2, 2025, NIA chargesheeted four CPI-Maoist cadres for the abduction and brutal killing of a youth in Gadchiroli District. The accused, Doba Wadde, Ravi Pallo, Sattu Mahaka, and Komati Mahaka, were charged with the abduction and murder of Dinesh Pusu Gawade in November 2023. Tha NIA stated, “They had kidnapped and killed Gawade on suspicion of being a police informer and a member of RSS [Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh].” In its chargesheet filed before the NIA Special Court, Mumbai, Maharashtra, in case RC-03/2024/NIA/MUM, the agency stated that the accused were active members of CPI-Maoist and had committed the crime in furtherance of the outfit’s conspiracy to spread terror in the minds of the local villagers. The case was initially registered at Dhodraj Police Station by Gadchiroli Police, which arrested the accused and seized a Bharmar gun, along with explosives and other incriminating materials.

Meanwhile, according to a November 8, 2024, report, security and intelligence agencies joined forces to increase surveillance on around 180 pro-CPI-Maoist private (front) organisations spread across Maharashtra. These frontal organisations project various socio-political agendas, but their main aim is to ensure that no parties inimical to the Maoist cause come to power in Maharashtra. The end goal is to prevent the formulation and implementation of plans to eradicate Maoism from the region. The frontal organisations are reportedly active in many Maharashtra cities, including Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Kolhapur, Satara, Nanded, Yavatmal, Akola, Buldhana, Chandrapur, Wardha, Bhandara, and Gondia. Moreover, Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah has urged Maoist-affected states such as Maharashtra to set a deadline for the complete elimination of Maoism. The Maharashtra government, which is planning a law against front organisations of the banned CPI-Maoist, titled the Maharashtra Security Act, has reportedly set a deadline of April-December 2025.

The Maoists are failing in their appeals to secure the support of the local masses. On June 14, 2024, seven tribal hamlets of Bhamragadh Tehsil in the foothills of Abujhmadh, which houses the People’s Liberation Guerrilla Army (PLGA) headquarters on the Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh border, banned the CPI-Maoist from entering their hamlets under the government’s ‘gaonbandi’ scheme of rewarding villages for not giving support or providing assistance to Naxalites. The tribal hamlets of Paraynar, Nelgunda, Kucher, Kawande, Gongewada, Midadapalli, and Mahakapadi are escaping Maoist influence after four decades of forced indoctrination in the ultra-Left ideology. On June 14, 2024, they took a historic vow during a ‘krishi melava’ or agricultural congregation at the Dhodraj Police outpost, to shun the Maoists and extend support to SFs, in lieu of government benefits which form the bulwark of the ‘gaonbandi’ scheme. They promised to shut out Maoists, boycott their meetings, and ban their entry into villages, which are often used as launchpads for guerrilla operations, as well as to propagate LWE ideology, or organise political and military training camps.

To bolster security against the rebels and curb their activities, a new Police Station was inaugurated on January 30, 2025, at Nelgunda in the Bhamragad sub-division of Gadchiroli District, to strengthen security and promote overall development in the remote and inaccessible parts of the district, which has long been affected by Maoist activity.

On January 1, 2025, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis inaugurated the 32-km-long Gatta-Gardewada-Wangeturi Road and bus services of the Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation on the Wangeturi-Gardewada-Gatta-Aheri route in the Gadchiroli district. The road link will connect Maharashtra directly to Chhattisgarh.

On December 11, 2024, a new Police Assistance Centre was opened at village Pengunda under Bhamragad Sub-Division, with the objective of providing security and overall development to the citizens of the extremely remote Pengunda and surrounding villages, to bring them into the mainstream of development.

Meanwhile, according to a January 3, 2025, report, Chief Minister Fadnavis reintroduced the Maharashtra Special Public Security Bill, 2024, during the winter session of the State Assembly, asserting that the proposed law does not attempt to suppress genuine dissenting voices, but to close down the dens of ‘urban Naxals’ instead. The Bill has been sent to a Joint Committee and will be brought up again during the monsoon session later this year.

Despite important security and developmental components, Maharashtra continues to suffer critical gaps of strength and quality in the State Police Force meant to fight against any kind of internal challenge. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as on January 1, 2023, the sanctioned strength for the States’ Police was 232,965, but only 172,382 personnel were in position, yielding a vacancy of 60,583 (26 percent). Police personnel per 100,000 population in Maharashtra currently stand at a sanctioned 184.92, while those actually available are 136.83. Further, the Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometers) for Maharashtra is just 56.02, as against the national average of 65.14. Both the State and national averages on the Police/Area ratio are well below their sanctioned strength, at 75.71 and 82.82, respectively. Further, of a sanctioned strength of 317 apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State, 41 posts, i.e., 12.93 per cent, remained vacant, substantially weakening executive command of the Force. At least two out of 1,191 Police Stations had no telephones.

The Maharashtra Police has been able to ensure a relatively safe environment on the ground, and has substantially contained the Maoist challenge. This is an opportunity for SFs to further consolidate their gains and eradicate Naxalism from the state.

Treading Cautiously

Maldives recorded no terrorism-linked fatality in 2024. The abduction and killing of blogger Yameen Rasheed by a local affiliate of Al-Qaeda on April 23, 2017, was the last terrorism related incident of the country. There have, nevertheless, been at least nine terrorist attacks in the country since the Rasheed killing, including three in 2019, four in 2020 and one each in 2021 and 2022. Further, there have been no incidents of terrorism-linked arrests in Maldives in 2024, continuing with the trend of 2023, as against 26 such arrests in 2022.

Nevertheless, as reported in January 2024, according to the country’s intelligence sources, Maldives not only remains a hub of Islamic State (IS) operatives but also of Pakistan-based terrorist groups, as well as of narcotics smugglers with international linkages. Sources indicate that a Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) base has also been identified in Maldives in the past.

Maldives faces a major problem from radical Islamist fundamentalists who fund local governments, with the involvement of some big business houses. These business houses have also been drawn towards China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Moreover, key Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) operative Umar Nisar Bhat alias Qasim Khorasani, who was arrested in 2021, stated in his confession that he was in regular touch with the Bangladesh and Maldives-based Islamic Ameer (chief), who could have used this link to expand terrorist propaganda networks.

However, at the official level, on October 1, 2024, Maldives participated in the 10th Ministerial Meeting of the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS (D-ISIS) hosted by then U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington, D.C. and reiterated Maldives’ unwavering belief that terrorism must never be associated with any religion, nationality, or ethnicity. With the Maldives engagement at the Ministerial Meeting, Malé also reaffirmed its commitment to fostering global security, promoting dialogue, and advancing the shared aspiration for a peaceful and prosperous world. This marks Maldives’ inaugural participation in the D-ISIS Ministerial, following its formal membership of the Coalition in August 2023.

In 2024, the Ministry of Homeland Security and Technology undertook strategic initiatives targeting four challenging areas that needed to be addressed to ensure the country’s internal security and safety, including persisting drug issues.

On November 24, the President of Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, stated that it is one of the highest priorities of the government to transform Maldives into a drug-free environment. Muizzu’s statement came in a post on ‘X’, after the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) seized 468.6 kg of illicit drugs from a Sri Lankan vessel that illegally entered into Maldivian waters. Maldives have been dealing with various narcotics-related issues that have plagued the archipelago for many decades, and adequate reform has not been brought about to date.

Nevertheless, as reported on December 9, President Muizzu disclosed that his government has stepped up efforts to combat drug trafficking, and six times more drugs were seized in 2024, as compared to 2023. President said the drugs seized so far this year are estimated to have a street value of around USD 84 million. He added that over 150 expatriates linked to drug trafficking have been deported so far this year (2024), which is twice that of 2023, and that the Police had raided over 13,435 establishments in 2024, amid a nationwide crackdown on trafficking, as compared to around 8,500 raids conducted in 2023.

Further, as reported on January 9, efforts have been commenced to detect the Maldives’ main gateway, Velana International Airport’s (VIA’s) camera blind spots and increase security to address the smuggling of drugs via air. Efforts are also ongoing to install vessel tracking devices to tackle drug trafficking via sea.

The archipelago is also grappling with an increased rate of cybercrime. The number of reported cybercrimes in Maldives nearly doubled in 2024, as compared to 2023, as revealed by Police Commissioner Ali Shujau on December 11, 2024. Shujau emphasised the urgent need to curb the spread of cybercrime and expand cyber security measures across the nation. “In 2023, the Maldives Police Service recorded 99 cybercrime cases. This year, the figure has risen sharply to 173,” Commissioner Shujau disclosed.

In a positive direction, Maldives has enacted legislative amendments to criminalise cybercrime. On December 17, the amendments to the Penal Code, the Criminal Procedure Code, and the Act on Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters, were ratified by President Muizzu. The amendments to the Penal Code formally recognise cybercrime within the legal framework and categorizes 10 activities as cyber offenses:

• Unauthorized access to computer systems
• Accessing unauthorized computer systems with the intention of committing a crime
• Intercepting unauthorized data on computer systems
• Interfering with unauthorized computer systems
• Misuse of computer systems or similar devices
• Acts of cyber violence
• Computer-related forgeries
• Acts of fraud and misrepresentation related to computer systems
• Infringement of copyright and associated rights
• People found guilty of such offenses will be subject to upwards of one year in prison.

Comprehensive economic reforms are urgently needed in Maldives, to address fiscal and external imbalances, build investor confidence, and reduce debt over the medium-term. On October 10, 2024, a World Bank report titled Maldives Development Update: Seeking Stability in Turbulent Times, underlined heightened external and fiscal vulnerabilities that required the urgent implementation of comprehensive economic reforms. While overall inflation remained low at 0.5 per cent in the first half of 2024, food prices rose by 6.7 per cent in the same period, as compared to the previous year. Foreign exchange reserves are also low, enough to cover only 1.5 months of imports. Dollar reserves fell from USD 590.5 million at the end of 2023 to USD 443.9 million in August 2024. Further, in the month of December 2024, the Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) reported that the inflation rate, which was at 0.3 per cent during the second quarter, had risen to 1.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2024. The Central Bank released its Economic Quarterly Bulletin, in which it emphasized that this increase in inflation could mainly be attributed to price changes in the energy sector.

President Muizzu of the People’s National Congress (PNC) party won the September 2023 presidential elections, with a 54.06 per cent of the vote in the run-off contest, defeating incumbent President Ibrahim Solih. In April 2024, the PNC won a super-majority in the People’s Majlis (Parliament), with 66 seats, while its allies won 9 seats, giving Muizzu the support of 75 of the 93 members of the Majlis.

It won’t be wrong to say that the economic disturbances of the country are the reason for Muizzu’s tip-toeing between India and China. With his ‘India Out’ campaign at the forefront, Muizzu visited Beijing in January, 2023, signing infrastructure and climate deals with China – but he has not burned bridges with New Delhi. He described India as a ‘valued partner’ and in the aftermath of his Indian visit in October, 2024, India approved a USD 400 million currency swap agreement, to support the cash-strapped Maldivian economy.

With a string of domestic issues and economic challenges, Maldives needs to tread cautiously to sustain itself under Mohamed Muizzu’s leadership. The archipelago is in dire need of better management of regional players, of economic crises, of the challenge of radicalization, and of the increased narco-threat.

Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
February 10-16, 2025

Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.