Baloch Rebellion Poses New Challenges To Pakistan – OpEd
The long-drawn out armed secessionist movement in Balochistan (Pakistan’s largest and poorest province) is evolving into more dangerous and sophisticated forms, posing a significant challenge to the country’s stability.
In a daring and novel attack last Tuesday, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) hijacked the Quetta-Peshawar Jaffar Express, carrying nearly 400 passengers, near a series of mountain tunnels 160 km from Quetta. A firefight with security forces resulted in the death of 21 civilians and four paramilitary personnel. The rebels used passengers as human shields
The year 2024 was particularly violent for Pakistan, with the BLA carrying out more than 150 attacks. However, Tuesday’s incident was unprecedented, involving hijacking, hostage-taking, and prolonged combat. It was the first case of hijacking and hostage taking by the BLA.
Political commentator Najam Sethi described the attack as a wake-up call for the Pakistani State, urging the military and political leadership to set aside differences and formulate a united strategy to eliminate the BLA. He also accused foreign powers of aiding the group and suggested Pakistan adopt an “offensive-defensive” strategy, targeting BLA bases and supply routes in Afghanistan and Iran.
To curb suspected Indian support for the BLA, he urged the restarting of “Jehadist” (Islamic militant) infiltration into the India’s Kashmir region. But Sethi regretted that despite frequent accusations, Pakistan has failed to provide credible evidence of Indian involvement, reflecting the incompetence of its military establishment.
He acknowledged the political and economic roots of the Baloch rebellion but insisted that military suppression must come first before any political or economic concessions. Otherwise, he warned, the rebels would perceive negotiations as a sign of weakness.
Afghanistan Factor
The BLA’s funding sources remain unclear, though analysts suggest extortion, smuggling, and drug trafficking from Afghanistan play a role. According to The Khorasan Diary, the BLA also benefits from weapons left behind in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal from that country in 2021. However, Pakistan’s strained relations with Afghanistan limit its ability to take counter action.
The trigger for the souring of Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan was Pakistan’s air attacks against hideouts of armed groups including the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Afghanistan. The TTP has been wreaking havoc in Pakistan by its attacks against the Pakistan army and civilians. A report by the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) said that terrorist attacks killed around 500 civilians and a similar number of security forces in 2023.
The Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces bordering Afghanistan accounted for most of the terror attacks and the resulting casualties.
Pakistan has repeatedly demanded from the Taliban government in Afghanistan effective management of 2,600-kilometer border. But so far, the situation has not been brought under control. In October 2023, Pakistan decided to expel illegal Afghan nationals staying in Pakistan. This decision further damaged the goodwill that some Afghans had for Pakistan.
Iran Factor
There have been military hostilities between Pakistan and Iran too. Iran’s Shia theocratic regime has felt ideologically discordant with Sunni-majority Pakistan. Pakistani leadership has also at times viewed the relationship through a sectarian lens. Iran has had a negative perception of Pakistan due to its strong relations with geopolitical forces opposed to Iran: such as the US and the Gulf powers, especially the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
For Pakistan, Iran has been a difficult and not very useful neighbour due to its bad relations with the US. Iran has also had a close relationship with Pakistan’s arch rival India. Pakistani leaders have long suspected Iran of supporting and providing haven to anti-Pakistan ethno-nationalist groups on its soil.
Internal Causes
While external factors have had a role to play, the Baloch rebellion is primarily rooted in local factors. Though rich in natural resources like coal, gold, copper, and gas, Balochistan remains Pakistan’s most underdeveloped province. Despite being home to the strategically important Gwadar port and the US$ 60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Balochistan sees little benefit from these projects. Since the mid-1970s, its share of the national GDP has declined from 4.9% to 3.7%. The province also suffers from the highest infant and maternal mortality rates, the highest poverty levels, and the lowest literacy rate in the country.
The royalties from its natural resources are disproportionately lower than those received by politically powerful provinces like Sindh and Punjab. Moreover, economic opportunities in Balochistan are monopolized by non-Balochis, fuelling local resentment.
A History of Rebellion
Balochistan’s struggle for autonomy dates back to Pakistan’s formation in 1947 when it attempted to remain independent but was forcibly annexed. Since then, the province has witnessed at least five major separatist uprisings. The BLA, however, emerged only in the late 1990s, led by Baloch Marri, son of veteran nationalist Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri.
The BLA showed its teeth in 2006 after the military, under Gen. Pervez Musharraf, killed prominent Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti. Unlike moderate Baloch nationalist groups seeking autonomy, the BLA has never pursued a middle ground and remains committed to an armed struggle for independence.
Suicide Attacks, Educated Militants
In 2010, the BLA launched its suicide squad, the Majeed Brigade. In 2018, BLA leader Aslam Baloch sent his own son on a suicide mission targeting Chinese engineers in Dalbandin. Later that year, the BLA attacked the Chinese consulate in Karachi, killing four locals. In 2022, the group gained global attention when a female suicide bomber, Shari Baloch, targeted Chinese nationals at Karachi University, killing four, including three Chinese.
Malik Siraj Akbar, a researcher on the Baloch separatist movement, told Al Jazeera that the BLA’s leadership has shifted from tribal chiefs figures to educated middle-class youth, many of whom were once part of the non-violent Baloch Students Organization (BSO). The group now attracts young, educated recruits who see armed struggle as the only path to survival. Many of the BLA’s new recruits include professionals such as IT specialists and data analysts, allowing the group to expand its digital and strategic capabilities.
Historical Mistrust and Military Suppression
Government repression, enforced disappearances, and poor governance have further fuelled the insurgency. Mistrust between the majority Punjabi population and the Baloch minority was exacerbated by the “One Unit Scheme” introduced by military ruler Gen. Ayub Khan in 1955. The plan merged Pakistan’s four Western provinces into a single entity to counterbalance the larger Bengali population in East Pakistan. Baloch nationalists resisted, fearing reduced representation and resource exploitation.
The One Unit scheme ended in 1970, but tensions persisted. In 1973, Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto dismissed Balochistan’s National Awami Party (NAP) government, accusing it of conspiring with foreign powers. This sparked a fresh violent insurgency.
A temporary truce was established under military ruler Gen. Zia-ul-Haq in 1977, but autonomy demands remained unaddressed. Under the rule of Gen. Pervez Musharraf, military operations intensified. In 2009, Baloch militants carried out 792 attacks, resulting in 386 deaths. Violence escalated in 2010, with 730 attacks and 600 fatalities.
No End in Sight
Balochistan remains locked in a cycle of violence and repression. The Pakistani state continues its heavy-handed approach, while the BLA grows increasingly sophisticated. Without addressing the deep-rooted grievances of the Baloch people, Pakistan is unlikely to see lasting peace in its most restive province.