SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
PAKISTAN: Hostage Nation
“The bickering nation”. This one sentence aptly describes the current state of Pakistan, where the two major terrorist/insurgent formations – the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella group of 56 terrorist outfits, and the Baloch insurgents – have created havoc. A third terrorist group – the Islamic State – is also on a rampage. Meanwhile, the political landscape is turbulent, while the economy is in complete disarray.
Indeed, within a span of a week, between March 10 and March 16, 2025, Pakistan recoded at least 38 terrorist attacks, resulting in 104 confirmed deaths [including 14 civilians, 45 Security Force (SF) personnel and 45 terrorists). Unconfirmed reports, however, put the death toll to 406.
In the deadliest attack during this period, one that was brazenly audacious even by the Pakistani standards, on March 11, militants hijacked a train, the Jaffar Express, with over 400 passengers-onboard, after they blew up the railway track between Quetta, Balochistan, and Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which took responsibility for the attack at Dhadar in the Bolan area of Balochistan, according to varying media reports, freed around 80 passengers, mostly women and children, but held hundreds of other passengers, most of them Pakistani Army personnel, hostage. They were demanding that authorities release jailed militants.
On March 12 the Pakistan Army launched an operation to end the crisis. On March 14, the Army declared that the operation had ended with the killing of all 33 militants involved in the attack. It further disclosed that 26 hostages, including 18 SF personnel, three railway officials and five civilians, were killed by the terrorists before the start of the Army operation. During the operation, apart from 33 terrorists, five Frontier Corps (FC) soldiers were also killed. The Army stated that a total of 354 hostages were rescued, including 37 injured passengers. The BLA, on the other hand, claimed that its fighters inflicted a “devastating and unforgettable defeat” on the Pakistani military as it has executed all 214 Pakistani military hostages taken during the seizure of the train.
Some of the other major attacks (involving three or more fatalities) during this week included:
March 10: Seven FC soldiers were killed when Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) targeted their vehicle with improvised explosive device (IED) in the Mehnaz area of Buleda tehsil (revenue unit) in the Kech District of Balochistan. While claiming responsibility for the attack, the BLF reiterated its determination to continue targeting Pakistani SFs and state-backed projects, declaring, “We reaffirm our commitment to continue our struggle until Balochistan’s liberation is achieved.”
March 10: Three non-local people from Sindh were shot dead when unidentified assailants opened fire at a barbershop in Katagari area of Panjgur District in Balochistan. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, so far.
March 14: SFs thwarted a terrorist attack on a check post and killed 10 militants, following a suicide attack in the Jandola area of South Waziristan District in KP.
March 16: Three FC personnel were among five persons killed when a vehicle-borne BLA suicide bomber targeted an FC convoy in the Rakshani Mill area of the Regional Corporate Development N-40 Highway in the Nushki District of Balochistan. However, the BLA claimed, “Immediately after the attack, the Fateh Squad of the BLA advanced and completely surrounded another bus, systematically eliminating all military personnel on board, bringing the total number of enemy casualties to 90.”
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), Pakistan has already recorded at least 849 fatalities (120 civilians, 277 SF personnel and 452 terrorists) in 2025 (data till March 16). During the corresponding period of 2024, 369 persons (120 civilians, 115 SF personnel, 130 terrorists and four Not Specified, NS) were killed. Through 2024, there was a total of 2,236 fatalities (582 civilians, 754 SF personnel, 896 terrorists, four Not Specified). Significantly, terrorism-related fatalities are again surging in Pakistan since 2020, with 365 in 2019; 506 in 2020; 664 in 2021; 971 in 2022; and 1,513 in 2023.
Though violence has been reported from across Pakistan, KP and Balochistan accounted for the maximum number of fatalities. According to SATP data, of the 849 fatalities recorded in 2025, 504 were reported from KP, followed by 336 in Balochistan, six in Sindh and three in Punjab. In 2024, KP recorded 1,363 fatalities, followed by Balochistan, 774; Punjab, 59; Sindh, 38; and the Islamabad Capital Territory and Gilgit-Baltistan, one each.
The surge coincides with the ascendency of the Afghan Taliban since the February 29, 2020, Doha deal, and the subsequent capture of power in Kabul.
Significantly, the return of Afghan Taliban has helped TTP regroup and has strengthened the outfit, which had been on a decline due to successive military operations that followed the June 8, 2014, attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Sindh. With violence on a rise in KP, SFs had to divide their focus between Balochistan and KP, creating opportunities for the Baloch insurgents to intensify their operations as well.
Reports indicate that efforts were also made to form some sort of ‘working arrangement’ between TTP and the Baloch separatists. Speaking during the United Nations Security Council briefing on Afghanistan in New York on March 10, 2025, Pakistan’s Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador Munir Akram claimed that TTP was collaborating with other terrorist groups present in Afghanistan, including BLA and the Majeed Brigade, the BLA’s ‘special forces unit’, adding that the latter sought to destabilise Pakistan’s ties with China. Earlier, on June 26, 2024, the Balochistan government claimed that TTP and BLA were trying to establish a joint base for terrorist operations in Balochistan, but the attempt was foiled. During a press conference, Zia Lango, Balochistan Home Minister, observed that Nasrullah alias Maulvi Mansoor and ‘Commander’ Idris alias Irshad, who had come to Balochistan to plan terrorist acts in collaboration with BLA, had been arrested.
Former Balochistan Chief Minister and President of the Balochistan National Party, Akhtar Mengal, wrote on X on March 12, 2025,
There is not a single inch of Balochistan left where the government can claim authority. They have lost this war-completely and irreversibly. It is over. We warned them, just as those before us warned them. But instead of listening, they mocked us. They dismissed our words as empty threats, while they fueled a system of oppression, looting, and bloodshed. Every single government-without exception-has played its role in the systematic genocide of the Baloch people. This is the one issue where every institution, every administration, every so-called leader has always stood united-against us. And rather than acknowledge their crimes, they have done what they do best: shift the blame onto others. But today, I want to make something very clear. To the federal government, to the political parties, to the judiciary, to the establishment-you have brought Balochistan to the brink of destruction with your own hands. But this time, it is beyond our control. And it is beyond yours as well.
Further, on March 14, National Party lawmaker, Phullain Baloch, claimed that the BLA is so heavily stocked with potential suicide attackers that it has suspended further recruitment. He warned that the security situation in Balochistan has deteriorated to the point where elected representatives can no longer visit their constituencies safely. He asserted that “the voices of Balochistan’s representatives are not heard,” and lamented that without genuine electoral and governance reforms, Balochistan’s ongoing conflict will only intensify.
Meanwhile, the Islamic State continues to operate in Pakistan as well. The Islamic State-Khorasan Province/Islamic State-Pakistan Province (IS-KP/IS-PP) claimed 29 attacks in the country in 2024, in which 58 persons, including SF personnel, were killed and 105 were injured. IS-KP/IS-PP have already claimed three attacks in 2025, in which one person has been killed and two injured.
Meanwhile, the country’s socio-economic condition remains dire. According to the World Bank’s latest updates,
Over one-third of school-age children across Pakistan were found to be out of school; nearly two-thirds of those in school in Financial Year (FY) 24 were learning deprived; and alarmingly high rates of stunting – 40 percent in FY23 – persist. Critical constraints, including recurrent fiscal and current account deficits, protectionist trade policies, unproductive agriculture, a difficult business environment, a heavy state presence in the economy, and a financially unsustainable energy sector, have remained largely unaddressed, leading to slow and volatile growth… The estimated lower-middle income poverty rate is 40.5 percent (USD 3.65/day 2017 PPP) for FY24 with an additional 2.6 million Pakistanis falling below the poverty line from the year before.
And further,
Downside risks to the outlook remain high, with the recovery expected to continue but predicated on the new IMF-EFF [International Monetary Fund/Extended Fund Facility] program remaining on track and on additional external financing inflows. Continued fiscal restraint will dampen aggregate demand, income, employment, and poverty alleviation. Heavy banking sector exposure to the sovereign, domestic policy uncertainty, federal-provincial government political misalignments and geopolitical instability pose significant risks.
Political volatility continues as well, with the puppet civilian government, which came to power after heavily rigged elections and direct involvement of the Military Establishment in forming post-elections alliances. Meanwhile, the ‘people’s choice’, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf leader Imran Khan continues to languish in jail. Summing up the current situation in a tweet on January 9, 2025, Imran Khan stated,
There is a plan to impose a ten-year dictatorship in Pakistan, of which two years have already passed. Judges or police officers who become a party to oppression are rewarded with promotions here… Economic prosperity requires investment, which is impossible without institutions adhering to their boundaries and responsibilities as defined by the Constitution. Surging terrorism in the country is causing irreparable damage to the confidence of the investors.
In an apparent reference to the military, Khan added,
Tragically, those responsible for countering terrorism are using all their resources and energy to corner our party.
Pakistan is hostage, not only to multiple terrorist groups, but to the Military Establishment as well, which, unhinged by its weakening grip over the public, has intensified political manipulation and repression. Under the prevailing circumstances, the country can only look forward to a future in chaos.
INDIA: Tripura: Border challenges
Tripura remains free of terrorism. The year 2024 marked a milestone achievement in the state of Tripura, where Chief Minister Manik Saha announced the state “insurgent-free or zero insurgency” with the signing of the peace agreement, the Memorandum of Settlement (MoS), on September 4, 2024, between the Government of India (GoI), the Government of Tripura, the National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT) and the All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF), in the presence of the Union Home Minister (UHM) Amit Shah, at North Block, in New Delhi.
The agreement followed the laying down of arms ceremony on September 24, 2024, where the ‘presidents’ of the Biswamohan Debbarma faction of the NLFT (NLFT-BM), Biswamohan Debbarma; the Parimal Debbarma faction of the NLFT (NLFT-PD), Parimal Debbarma; NLFT Original (NLFT-ORI), Prasenjit Debbarma; and ATTF’s Alindra Debbarma handed over their AK series rifles. Also, a total of 584 cadres of NLFT and ATTF laid down their arms: NLFT-BM, 261 cadres; NLFT-PD and NLFT-ORI, 100 cadres each; and ATTF, 123 cadres. The weapons handed over included 89 country-made guns, 13 pistols, nine AK series rifles, eight factory-made guns, seven land mines, one revolver and one rifle.
According to official figures, between September 24, 2024, and December 11, 2024, a total of 902 cadres of NLFT, ATTF and other groups abjured violence and joined the mainstream of society. No further surrenders have taken place thereafter.
On May 20, 2024, before these developments, an Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) Tribunal had declared NLFT and ATTF and their factions, wings, and front organisations, unlawful associations, stating that their cadres were involved in kidnapping for ransom, extortion, etc. The notification highlighted that the two groups sought to create an independent nation by secession of Tripura from India through armed struggle, in alliance with other armed secessionist organisations of Tripura, and to incite the indigenous people of Tripura. It further noted that NLFT had been working in close nexus with other North-East insurgent organisations having their bases in Bangladesh, including the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), Kanglei Yaol Kanba Lup (KYKL), Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO), National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC). The ATTF had connections with the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K) and Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO).
For long years, since the inception of NLFT on March 12, 1989, and ATTF in 1993, which was originally named All Tripura Tribal Force (formed on July 11, 1990), the two militant outfits have been involved in violent activities, with the common objectives of deporting all foreigners who entered Tripura after 1956 and restoring alienated tribal lands.
The present agreement is, however, an example of militant outfits choosing a peaceful path to resolve the issues surrounding the indigenous population of Tripura.
The decline in the number of insurgent-related incidents and fatalities in Tripura was one of the factors that made this possible. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), since 2010, fatalities have been recorded in single digits for eight of the 15 years, while no fatality was reported in the remaining seven years (data till March 16, 2025). There was a total of 13 insurgent-related killing incidents in which 16 fatalities were recorded [five civilians, seven Security Force (SF) personnel and four terrorists] from 2010 to March 16, 2025. Of these, NLFT was involved in 10 incidents, including two NLFT-BM-related incidents in 2021 and 2022, while ATTF was involved in only one incident, on January 4, 2023, which also resulted in the last reported insurgent-related fatality in Tripura. Of the remaining, two incidents involved the Bru National Liberation Front (BNLF), while the third could not be attributed to any identified militant group.
Moreover, since March 6, 2000, a total of 3,824 militants have surrendered in the state.
2024 and 2025 (to date) have not reported any arrests associated with particular insurgent outfits. The trends of arrest, in recent times, have been associated with the possession of firearms. Some of the incidents of this kind in 2025 include:
February 13: Police arrested Rajkumar Debnath and Palash Pal from South Jagatpur in Sidhai, Tripura’s West District, in connection with a case registered under the Arms Act in December 2024. Police recovered a 7mm pistol along with an empty magazine from the residence of Rajkumar Debnath on February 15.
February 7: In a joint operation with the Border Security Force (BSF), Police arrested Anjan Das from Konaban Radhanagar in Sepahijala and recovered a pistol and three live rounds from his possession.
January 25: Police carried out an operation and arrested two persons, Niraj Kumar and Indar Mukhia, in possession of a pistol, from the Dharmanagar Sub-division of North Tripura District.
At least 13 insurgents were arrested in six separate incidents in 2023. The last insurgent-related arrest was on December 16, 2023, when the Tripura Police arrested three NLFT-PD militants – self-styled ‘major’ Ganaram Rang aka Baileng, Rai Bahadur Reang and Rai Taingha Reang – from the Khasnam Para Bru Settlement Camp in North Tripura District. A total of 1,114 militants have been arrested in Tripura since March 6, 2000.
The MoS of September 2024 is accompanied by aid, rehabilitation and relief packages. In the latest agreement, the Centre approved a special INR 2.5 billion package for the development of the tribal population in Tripura. A monthly stipend of INR 6,000 and a fixed deposit of INR 400,000 for each of the rebels who renounce violence, with the deposit accessible after a three-year lock-in period, were also promised.
However, the likelihood that packages announced and promises made at the time of the agreement being fulfilled remain bleak. On February 21, 2025, Tripura United Indigenous Revolutionary Peoples’ Council (TUIRPC) leader Daniel Borok Debbarma announced a protest aimed at pressing their 21-point charter of demands, with support from all surrendered militant organisations. On February 25, 2025, the organisation staged a daylong blockade on the Assam-Agartala National Highway at Hatai Kotor in West Tripura District, which is the fifth protest of such kind over the past years. The demands included rehabilitation, land allotment, housing, and economic assistance for surrendered militants. The group claimed that the Government failed to fulfil its promises and had not done anything for surrendered militants over the past 30 to 35 years despite assurances. TUIRPC leader Daniel Borok Debbarma stated,
The government made numerous promises, but none have been realised. Many of our demands remain pending, which is why we have resorted to this road blockade as a form of protest. This is the fifth time we are taking such an action. Our key demands include the withdrawal of all court and police cases against us. Even now, we are being summoned by the police for various cases. We were promised pucca houses, but none have been provided. We also demand the use of the Roman script for the Kokborok language, replacing the current Bengali script. Additionally, the government must ensure proper infrastructure, including water, electricity, and roads, in rehabilitation areas. Free education for our children from Class 1 up to the university level must also be guaranteed.
In response, Minister of Tribal Welfare Department Bikash Debbarma met with representatives of TUIRPC on March 4, 2025, and assured them of the Government’s support, adding, “The government is committed to addressing the issues of surrendered militants. We will work towards resolving their grievances at the earliest.”
Meanwhile, the porous international border with Bangladesh (parts of Tripura’s 856-km-long border with Bangladesh are still unfenced due to local disputes) remains a hindrance, with numerous infiltration attempts by Bangladeshis and Rohingyas owing to the tumultuous conditions in the neighbouring country. As reported on November 3, 2024, Chief Minister Saha urged UHM Amit Shah to take steps to complete the unfenced border. Saha observed, in this regard,
We are all keeping watch on the situation in Bangladesh and it may take time to practically see its possible impact on our ties with the country. But since we have seen an increase in influx, we have raised the matter with the Centre and sought complete fencing of the border.
According to an official release by the Border Security Force (BSF) on December 1, 2024, a total of 675 illegal immigrants, including 55 Rohingyas, 620 Bangladeshi nationals and 260 Indian nationals, were apprehended by the BSF’s Tripura Frontier in various operations, from January 1 to November 30, 2024. The BSF added contraband worth more than INR 46 crore was seized, including substantial quantities of narcotics. The seizures included 66,316 bottles of Phensedyl, 9,203.24 kilograms of cannabis, 605,334 Yaba tablets, 1,222,894.5 kilograms of sugar, 496.26 grams of gold, 381.01 grams of brown sugar, one pistol and 210 rounds of ammunition.
Both the border guard organisations, BSF and Bangladesh Border Guard (BBG), collaborated in addressing the security challenges of the two nations. However, the political situation in Bangladesh has had a ripple effect in Tripura. On December 2, 2024, a protest was launched in front of the Bangladesh Assistant High Commissioner in Agartala, focusing on atrocities against Hindu minorities and a demand for the release of Hindu leader and ISKCON member Chinmoy Das Prabhu. The protest was also joined by a right-wing organization, called Hindu Sangharsh Samity. In response to the protest, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) took up security measures and emphasised that “diplomatic and consular properties should not be targeted under any circumstances.”
As Tripura reached its milestone in achieving the zero-insurgency status, with a larger vision of the Government of India’s policy towards “insurgency-free, peaceful and prosperous North East”, the issue of addressing the grievances of surrendered militants lingers on. The Government must revisit its surrender cum rehabilitation programme and address the protracted failures of implementation. Moreover, the state is crippled by other challenges, particularly along its international border with Bangladesh. The influx of illegal migrants along the border, part of the larger border crisis across India’s Northeast, needs to be addressed at the earliest, as it constitutes a serious security threat.
Weekly Fatalities: Major Conflicts in South Asia
March 10-16, 2025
Provisional data compiled from English language media sources.