India: Maoist Eclipse In Odisha – Analysis

On March 10, 2025, Odisha Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi informed the Assembly that Security Forces (SFs) had eliminated 118 Communist Party of India-Maoist (CPI-Maoist) cadres in the state over the past decade. Chief Minister Majhi was responding to a written question of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) Kanhai Charan Danga, and stated that, between 2015 and January 25, 2025, security operations resulted in the deaths of 118 CPI-Maoist cadres. Over the same period, SFs arrested 315 individuals linked to Maoist activities, while 238 militants and militia members surrendered. The Chief Minister emphasized that the state aims to eradicate the Maoist threat by 2026.

According to partial data collated by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 147 CPI-Maoist cadres have been killed between 2015 and January 25, 2025, while 206 Maoists were arrested, and 5,747 Maoists and ‘militia’ (people’s army of the Maoists) members surrendered in Odisha.

Odisha recorded 10 fatalities, including three civilians and seven Naxalites (Left Wing Extremists, LWEs), in LWE-related violence in 2024. In 2023, there were nine such fatalities, including three civilians, and six Maoists.

It is significant to note here that the trend of overall fatalities on a year-on-year basis in LWE-linked violence in the state has been cyclical in nature 2016, when 72 fatalities were recorded. Declines were registered for three consecutive years thereafter: 2017 to 38, 2018 to 32, and 2019 to 19. 2020 recorded an increase to 23, with a sharp drop the next year, to 11 in 2021. The trend reversed again, to 17 in 2022, down again to nine in 2023. 10 fatalities were recorded in 2024.

Three civilian fatalities were recorded in 2024 as well as in 2023. There were seven fatalities in this category in 2022, three in 2021, and four in 2020. For 13 consecutive years, between 2007 and 2019, Odisha recorded double-digit civilian fatalities, the highest March 6, 2000, when SATP started compiling data on LWE in India, in the State, in 2010, at 62.

Significantly, SFs did not lose any personnel for a second consecutive year, in 2024 as well as in 2023. Three fatalities were recorded in 2022. On the other hand, SFs neutralised seven Maoists in 2024 in addition to six in 2023. The overall kill ratio since March 6, 2000, favours the SFs at 1:1.48.

Meanwhile, at least seven Naxalites were arrested in 2024, as against five in 2023. Mounting pressure also resulted in the surrender of at least 21 Naxalites in 2024, in addition to five in 2023.

Other parameters of violence registered a considerable decline in 2024 as compared to 2023, even though the influence and impact of the rebels continued to be felt in the State. No major incident (resulting in three or more fatalities) was carried out by the Maoists in 2024 or in 2023. The last major incident was recorded on June 21, 2022, when three Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel were killed in a CPI-Maoist attack in the Patadhara Reserve Forest of the Bheden Block (administrative division) in Nuapada District. The Maoists were not involved in any incidents of arson in 2024, as compared to three such incidents in 2023. The Maoists did not issue any bandh (shutdown) call in 2024, while three such calls were issued in 2023.

However, the total number of LWE-linked incidents marginally went up to 50 in 2024 from 48 in 2023. Two such incidents have already been recorded in the current year: On February 26, 2025, the BSF personnel unearthed a huge cache of cannabis and arrested at least 24 ganja peddlers in the Kantamal and Matakupa Forests in Boudh District A syndicate of cannabis peddlers was unearthed, and 672 kilograms of ganja and seven cell phones were seized. An unnamed Police officer told the media on January 6, 2025, “Maoists are the biggest promoters of ganja cultivation in Odisha as they get huge commission from the illegal business. Maoists often instigate villagers to cultivate ganja and provoke them to attack enforcement officials during raids.” Indeed, a January 21, 2024, report also revealed that as ganja smuggling is a highly profitable business, Maoists have been promoting ganja cultivation and taking a huge ‘levy’ (extortion) from villagers in Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, Rayagada, Boudh and Kandhamal districts, where Ganja is cultivated under their patronage. Further, on November 4, 2021, in a two-page letter written in Telugu, Ganesh, the ‘secretary’ of the CPI-Maoist Andhra Odisha Border Special Zonal Committee (AOBSZC) had accepted that, in the absence of any alternative source of income, Ganja cultivation has become the mainstay for the tribals.

In the second incident this year, on February 6, 2025, an exchange of fire between security personnel and CPI-Maoist cadres took place in the Gandhamardan Hills near Hanupali village under the Bhanupur Panchayat (village level local self-Government institution) in Bolangir District, following credible tips about the presence of Maoist elements hiding in the area. No casualties were reported in the confrontation.

Meanwhile, an analysis of overground and underground Maoist activities in Odisha suggests a decline in the ‘moderately affected’ category as well as in the ‘marginally affected’ category. According to SATP, in 2024, Maoist activities were reported from five of Odisha’s 30 districts. One district, Kandhamal, fell in the ‘moderately affected’ category, while the remaining four districts, Bargarh, Boudh, Malkangiri and Nabarangpur, were ‘marginally affected’. By comparison, in 2023, Maoist activities were reported from nine districts, Boudh, Kandhamal, Koraput, Kalahandi, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, Rayagada, and Sundargarh, each of them ‘marginally affected’.

Further, according to the latest available Government data (December 10, 2024), seven of Odisha’s Districts, Kalahandi, Kandhamal, Bolangir, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Nuapada, and Rayagada, are among the 38 districts from nine States affected by Left Wing Extremism (LWE) in the country, as classified by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA). Significantly, according to this data, eight of Odisha’s districts, Angul, Bargarh, Boudh, Deogarh, Koraput, Nayagarh, Sambalpur, and Sundargarh, have been progressively excluded from LWE-affected districts list over the preceding 5 years (Between 2018 and 2024).

Interestingly, on February 27, 2025, amid a visible decline in Maoist activities in the Sundargarh District near the Odisha-Jharkhand border, the process to move the headquarters of the 19th CRPF Battalion out of Rourkela is underway. The 19th CRPF Bn shifted to Nuapada almost 17 years after it was established in Rourkela in 2008. Seven companies of the battalion have already been relocated from Sundargarh. With this, the responsibility of controlling Naxalite movement in bordering areas of the erstwhile Maoist-hit pockets of Sundargarh rests solely on the Special Operations Group (SOG) and District Voluntary Force (DVF) under the disposal of Rourkela Police.

Taking action against Maoist activities in the State, on December 12, 2024, a National Investigation Agency (NIA) team raided a location in Anantapalli village under Motu Police 12 limits in Malkangiri District, over suspected CPI-Maoist activities. The team from Hyderabad reached the village at around 3 A.M. [IST] and carried out the raid at the house of Mantosh Mandal. According to an NIA statement, the operation was linked to Maoist activities, specifically related to the supply of weapons. NIA sources stated, “The NIA raided the residence of a man named Mantosh Mandal at Motu as well as two of his associates. Incidentally, properties belonging to this suspect were also searched before, with crude weapons and explosives being seized then.”

SFs also recovered caches of arms, ammunition, and explosives on 29 occasions in 2024, in addition to 31 such incidents in 2023.

Meanwhile, on February 13, 2025, the Border Security Force (BSF) unearthed multiple CPI-Maoist dumps from four different sites in the Silakota Reserve Forest near Silakota village in Bapanpalli Panchayat under Podia Police Station limits in Malkangiri District. The operation led to the discovery of four Maoist dumps, three hidden beneath stone cavities and one buried under a twin tree, all located within a 50-meter radius. A large cache of arms, ammunition, and explosives, including Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), detonators, electric wires, power banks, and Single Barrel Muzzle Loading (SBML) guns, was recovered from the dumps. The seized items include a pressure cooker IED (5 litres) with an electric detonator, a tiffin IED (5 litres) with an electric detonator, a tiffin IED (3 litres) (approx. 3 kilograms), a tiffin IED (2 litres), three electric detonators, 11 metres of electric wire, a mobile phone, a power bank, and three SBML guns.

Further, on February 6, 2025, an exchange of fire between security personnel and CPI-Maoist cadres took place following credible tips about the presence of Maoist elements hiding in the Gandhamardan Hills near Hanupali village under the Bhanupur Panchayat in Bolangir District. However, no casualties were reported in the confrontation.

On November 30, 2024, BSF Inspector General (Frontier HQ – Special Ops) C.D. Aggarwal stated that Maoist activities had come down substantially in Odisha over the years, and only 60 to 70 members of the proscribed organisation remained active in the state. He added, further,

While significant progress has been made, challenges remain, particularly in the dense forests of Kalahandi, Kandhamal and Boudh, where IED threats persist. Additionally, the socio-economic impact of Naxal-linked narcotics trafficking, especially Ganja cultivation, poses new hurdles.

While the Maoist rebels cannot yet been written off, the Odisha Police continues to face acute deficits in terms of capacities. According to the latest Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) data, as of January 1, 2023, Odisha had 120.58 Police personnel per 100,000 population, significantly below the inadequate national average of 154.84. The Police/Area Ratio (number of policemen per 100 square kilometres) is just 35.74, against the national average of 65.14. Both the State and national averages on the Police/Area ratio are below the sanctioned strength, at 44.76 and 82.82, respectively. The sanctioned strength for the States’ Police is 69,690, but only 55,656 personnel were in position, a deficit of 20.13 per cent. In addition, the sanctioned strength of the apex Indian Police Service (IPS) Officers in the State is 195, but just 120 officers were in position, a deficit of 38.46 per cent, which considerably weakens the executive supervision of the force. Besides, out of the sanctioned strength of 679 Police Stations, at least 17 Police Stations in the State had no wireless or mobiles.

Maoist activities in Odisha have been contained to a large extent, barring a few areas where the Maoists continue to struggle to make their presence felt. Addressing the critical capacity deficits in the Odisha Police will create the permanent resource within the state to ensure that the rebels are not able to recover ground at any stage in the foreseeable future.