Deadly Attack in Kashmir Further Raises India-Pakistan Tensions

Bottom Line Up Front

• A group of four militants from Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) opened fire on civilians earlier this week in the tourist destination of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 26.
• The attack is considered to be the deadliest against civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attack, also carried out by Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, where over 160 people were killed during a four-day-long siege of the hotel.
• The aftermath of the recent attack in Kashmir could lead to increased communal tensions between Muslims and Hindus in India, likely providing the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi an opportunity to further marginalize religious minorities.
• Pakistan has long relied on terrorist proxies as part of its asymmetric strategy against India, and has renewed its focus on the issue of what Islamabad considers India’s occupation of Kashmir, likely a strategic attempt to divert attention from domestic discontent.

A group of four militants from Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), a Pakistani-based terrorist group, opened fire on civilians earlier this week in the tourist destination of Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered state of Kashmir. At least 26 individuals have been confirmed dead and 20 more seriously injured, in an attack where the gunmen allegedly singled out Hindus, asking for names and separating the Hindu men among the tourists staying in the scenic holiday town, located in the valley of Muslim-majority Kashmir.

According to the Indian news publication, The Print, all four gunmen are from the LeT, despite a shadowy group calling itself The Resistance Front (TRF) claiming responsibility for the attack on social media, expressing its discontent with the influx of “outsiders” settling in the region. However, the group is considered to be a front and proxy of LeT – which has been active since 1993 and whose primary objective is the annexation of Kashmir into Pakistan. LeT has carried out attacks in both the Kashmir valley and other parts of India since its formation – including the 2008 Mumbai attacks – with covert support from elements within Pakistan’s state apparatus.

The timing of the attack is significant, coinciding with U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia – a trip that was cut short due to the incident. Additionally, Pakistan army chief General Asim Munir gave a speech last week underscoring Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, stating that “Pakistan would stand by Kashmiris in their fight against Indian occupation,” further calling Kashmir Pakistan’s “jugular vein.” Islamabad has since released a statement condemning the attack, reiterating that it was not involved.

Widespread outrage has engulfed India, with both Prime Minister Modi and Indian Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah cutting short overseas trips to return to India. The attack notably took place less than two weeks after Amit Shah reviewed the security forces’ response capabilities in the Union territory. The scale of the attack, the high number of casualties and what is widely perceived as a clear failure of the Indian security forces – despite a steady escalation of attacks by Pakistani separatists over the past 11 months – are likely to place significant pressure on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government to respond forcefully.

Indian security agencies have launched an extensive manhunt to track down the perpetrators of the recent attack, believed to be of both Pakistani and Kashmiri origin. They have also announced plans to reassess security and deployment strategies in the mountainous region around Pahalgam, which had previously lacked a permanent security presence. This move comes amid criticism of the Modi administration for overstating claims of restored peace in a region long troubled by anti-Indian insurgencies – criticism intensified by such a high-profile security lapse.

Since 2019, India has adopted a heavy-handed approach to Kashmir, aiming to consolidate control over a region long affected by an insurgency opposing Indian governance. A 2019 report by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) documented human rights abuses committed by the Indian state, such as arbitrary detentions, summary killings, and a range of other serious abuses. The government has employed draconian legislation to suppress dissent and create the appearance of having contained the militancy that has persisted since independence. This has led to an uptick in attacks targeting Hindu civilians in the region.

Military escalation between India and Pakistan in the coming weeks is a distinct possibility, potentially echoing the aftermath of the 2019 Pulwama attack – a suicide bombing carried out by another separatist terrorist outfit, Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). The attack resulted in the fatalities of 47 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) personnel in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pulwama district. Occurring just six months before the Indian government revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status with the goal of asserting greater federal control over a region that has been disputed since the 1947 partition of British India. This move sharply escalated tensions between the two countries, following increased border skirmishes and India’s retaliatory airstrikes against Pakistan. The strikes were in response to allegations that the Pakistani government and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which has long cultivated relationships with a range of terrorist proxy forces, were complicit in the Pulwama attack.

The aftermath of the recent attack could also lead to increased communal and sectarian tensions between Muslims and Hindus in India, risking reprisal attacks against Muslim minorities in India. It will likely provide the Hindu nationalist BJP and Prime Minister Modi an opportunity to further marginalize religious minorities and cement their messaging of the Muslim threat in India. Following the attack, Modi tweeted: “Those behind this heinous act will be brought to justice … they will not be spared!”

The attack is considered the deadliest targeting civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, in which over 160 people were killed during a four-day siege on the Taj Hotel. That attack, also orchestrated by LeT, remains one of the most significant acts of terrorism on Indian soil. The recent incident comes just days after the extradition from the U.S. and subsequent arrest in Delhi of the alleged architect of the Mumbai attacks by the National Investigation Agency (NIA). India has consistently accused Pakistan of harboring militants. The allegation aligns with Pakistan’s history of leveraging extremist groups to advance its strategic interests, particularly given its relative disadvantage in military and economic power compared to India. There is credible evidence that Pakistan’s ISI provided training, funding, and logistical support to LeT in executing the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Pakistan has been grappling with ongoing domestic turmoil and renewed focus on the issue of Indian occupation, made clear by the comments made by Army Chief General Asim Munir shortly before the attacks. These can be interpreted as a strategic attempt to divert attention from internal discord, including widespread public discontent over the February 2024 elections. The elections resulted in Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) coming to power under what were widely viewed as heavily manipulated electoral conditions. The popular opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), was banned from contesting, exacerbating popular dissatisfaction with the ruling political class.