Kashmir: A Thorny Issue Between Pakistan And India From The Outset – Analysis
On April 22, an attack occurred in the Baisaran Valley, located in the mountainous region of Kashmir in the western part of the Indian subcontinent, sparking a brief military conflict between New Delhi and Islamabad. India received support from Russia, while Pakistan was aided by the United States and China.
Recent tensions in South Asia are part of a turbulent geopolitical context following the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to Kabul. The Indo-Pakistani confrontation has two dimensions: the first is religious, and the second is nuclear, as both countries possess nuclear weapons.
The Pahalgam tragedy occurred nearly twenty years after the deadly attacks in Bombay, which left 175 people dead. Moreover, India seized the opportunity to label Pakistan a terrorist state once again. In the ongoing tensions between the two countries, the question of Kashmir has been a thorny issue from the beginning.
An old story
Since 1947, India and Pakistan have fought no fewer than five wars, including three over Kashmir. Kashmir was the cause of the first Indo-Pakistani war, which took place from 1947 to 1948. Until the partition of the Indian subcontinent on the eve of the British colonial power’s departure in August 1947, Gilgit-Baltistan—today an administrative region in northern Pakistan—belonged to the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. It borders Afghanistan, Chinese Xinjiang, Indian Jammu and Kashmir, and Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as defined by the boundaries established during the 1947–1948 conflict.
India’s first government claimed Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan under the Treaty of Accession, which the Maharajah of Jammu and Kashmir was forced to sign in October 1947. New Delhi gave up its claim to Gilgit-Baltistan and part of the former Jammu and Kashmir, but obtained the Kashmir Valley, whose population is predominantly Muslim.
The LoC Disputed Territory: Shown in green is Kashmiri region under Pakistani control. The orange-brown region represents Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir while the Aksai Chin is under Chinese control. Credit: CIA World Factbook.The LoC Disputed Territory: Shown in green is Kashmiri region under Pakistani control. The orange-brown region represents Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir while the Aksai Chin is under Chinese control. Credit: CIA World Factbook.
By the end of the 1980s, the Kashmir Valley had taken up arms and claimed “azadi,” a term meaning “freedom” or “independence” in Urdu and Persian. There are three main types of Kashmiris. Some want Kashmir to be an independent state, and they chant the slogan “azadi.” This group represents about 40% of the population. Another group wants Kashmir to be part of Pakistan.
Obviously, these people don’t chant the slogan “azadi.” They also represent about 40% of the population. There are also people who want Kashmir to remain part of India. Currently, these people are in the minority, representing about 20% of the population. It’s important to note that the United Nations’ resolution on Kashmir only mentions two options: India or Pakistan. An independent Kashmir is not mentioned as an option. The idea of Azad Kashmir is merely a figment of some separatists’ imaginations. They refuse to admit the practical infeasibility of a small, independent nation existing among three ambitious nuclear powers.
In India, some observers used the term “militant” for a long time in an attempt to remain impartial when considering the independence aspirations of the Kashmiri population, which they had chosen to defend with arms for a time, at least. However, since Narendra Modi’s rise to power and the assertion of Hindu majoritarianism, Indians have tended to use the term “terrorism,” which emphasizes the danger that azadi would pose to the unity of the Hindu nation. This ignores the fact that the Muslim populations of Jammu and Kashmir (and AJK) have unsuccessfully called for a plebiscite as mandated by the Security Council since the early 1950s. Likewise, Muslims in Kashmir and Jammu have paid a heavy price for seeking azadi because Indian repression following the outbreak of militancy was severe.
The United Nations refers to the region as Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir (i.e., Kashmir, Jammu, and Ladakh), one of the most militarized areas on the planet. Impartial observers estimate that between 350,000 and 700,000 soldiers remain stationed there. The Kashmir Valley, which covers an area of 15,950 square kilometers, is home to a population of 7.5 million. Since the outbreak of the recent armed conflict, there have been 70,000 deaths (half of them civilians), 8,000 missing persons, and more than 6,000 unmarked graves.
Kashmiris had hoped for an improvement in their economic situation, which was adversely affected by the unilateral abrogation of the largely fictitious constitutional autonomy enjoyed by the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019. Jammu and Kashmir were demoted to territory status and brought together under direct administration by the central government in New Delhi, while Ladakh formed a second territory. Kashmir has only recently returned to the polls under a strict regime of exception while leaders of the Kashmiri political class who adhered to republican legality were imprisoned or placed under house arrest.
The few remaining armed groups in Kashmir (and the Muslim-majority districts of Rajouri, Poonch, and Doda in Jammu) continue to use hit-and-run tactics, leaving the civilian population vulnerable to Indian security forces.
The Baisaran Valley attack
On April 22, 26 tourists were killed in the paradisiacal Baisaran Valley, located at the foot of the Himalayas. A guide who tried to intervene was among the victims. This scenario recalls a period that the Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir would like to forget. The victims were singled out based on their religion, then killed in front of their families. A Nepalese tourist whose religion was not Islam was also executed. India claimed that five members of the Resistance Front, a branch of Lashkar-e-Taiba (“Army of the Pious”), were responsible for the attack but did not provide proof.
The circumstances of the attack are all the more disturbing given that tourism is one of Kashmir’s main resources. The attack occurred in a region 32 kilometers from Pahalgam. One thousand five hundred tourists traveled on foot or by pony, without an escort, to a valley inaccessible by road. Given the area’s history of dramatic attacks, observers questioned this anomaly. Could armed men have hidden out in Baisaran well in advance without attracting attention? Indian authorities countered by pointing out that the site was closed to the public, but this assertion was ultimately denied.
Meanwhile, some voices were raised—albeit halfheartedly—against the central government’s propaganda. Until then, the government had strongly asserted that terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir had been eradicated. This encouraged tourists to stay in the valley. This raised questions about the intentions of Hindu nationalists, of whom Narendra Modi is the figurehead, and fueled yet another conspiracy theory involving India and Pakistan.
Omar Abdullah, the Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir, like his fellow Kashmiris, fully grasped the significance of the attack. He strongly condemned the attack, emphasizing Kashmiris’ commitment to dignity and humanity. Recalling the valley’s tradition of hospitality, to which tourists once flocked, Abdullah first sought to appease New Delhi, which portrays all Muslims as enemies within. However, Abdullah’s attempt was in vain. More than 2,000 people were placed under administrative detention, and the homes of individuals deemed close to unidentified militants were destroyed. Ironically, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government boasted that Kashmiri tourist guides, merchants, and citizens came to the aid of threatened tourists.
As usual, Narendra Modi blurred the lines of thought, stirring up anti-Pakistan sentiments among the predominantly Hindu population while mocking national honor. He championed India’s right to retaliate, further asserting its preeminence on the world stage. Modi had long been persona non grata in the West until he became Prime Minister in May 2014. By presenting himself as an international leader, is he now trying to make the world forget his role in the 2002 Gujarat anti-Muslim pogroms, which caused the deaths of 2,000 people? Modi was the chief minister of Gujarat at the time. Although he has since been exonerated of any involvement, no one believes in the impartiality of Indian justice.
Since the Pulwama attack in Indian Kashmir in February 2019, the prime minister has suggested that India could carry out surgical strikes on Pakistani territory if necessary. He is thus taking his cue from the United States’ policy in the aftermath of the War on Terror and, more recently, Israel’s defense policy. These are two countries that half-heartedly proclaim their freedom to instrumentalize international law to address security challenges they deem paramount.
New Delhi has once again accused its neighbor of harboring terrorist training camps in Pakistan-administered Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). However, the term “training camp” is puzzling: many Muslims from Jammu and Kashmir were driven into exile, crossing the ceasefire line that became the 740-kilometer-long Line of Control (LoC) in 1972. They sought refuge in AJK following the conflicts of 1947–1948 and 1965 and the outbreak of insurrection in the Kashmir Valley in the late 1980s. The inhabitants of these refugee camps, which now comprise only hard-standing dwellings, keep alive the hope of returning home. Pakistan taps into this pool from time to time in an attempt to annex the part of the former princely state of Jammu and Kashmir under Indian administration. Meanwhile, New Delhi accuses Pakistan of waging a proxy war to bleed India dry.
Islamabad and Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the “militant” authorities, were quick to organize the first armed pro-independence groups in Kashmir. They instructed the groups to defend the only connection between Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and the Pakistani Muslim homeland. In any case, Islamabad and Rawalpindi continue to show little regard for the impoverished Muslim civilian population of Jammu and Kashmir, who are held hostage by militant groups and Indian security forces.
In addition to New Delhi’s “surgical strikes,” which inevitably targeted civilians, Modi unilaterally suspended the Indus Treaty of 1960, which governs the use of water from the Indus and its tributaries. This has placed agriculture in Pakistani Punjab in a perilous situation. The prime minister is patting himself on the back for his country’s leading role on the international stage. Once again, he is ignoring the timid reactions of world powers worried by China’s assertiveness. He is calling on voters, who are fed up with the meager economic dividends of a third Hindu nationalist mandate, to renew their support for him. However, will he back down since he is undermining the interests of China’s larger neighbor? The Indus River originates in the Tibetan plateau, and Beijing also aims to control its water.
Modi has seized upon Pakistan’s delicate situation, as the country is dependent on Western financial aid. The country is also dealing with separatism in Baluchistan and the resurgence of the Taliban movement, which is supported by the new regime in Kabul. Shortly before his first imprisonment in May 2023, former Prime Minister Imran Khan urged his compatriots to resist and question the privileges of the unpopular army.
The People’s Republic of China has remained discreet, even though Beijing, Islamabad, and Rawalpindi boast an ironclad friendship, calling each other all-weather friends. However, China remains India’s great rival in the Himalayas and disputes several parts of its territory. In April 2015, Pakistan and China established the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This initiative, also known as the “New Silk Road,” aims to link Kashgar in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region with Gilgit-Baltistan in Pakistan, as well as the ports of Karachi in Sindh and Gwadar in Baluchistan. Gilgit-Baltistan, home to K2 in the Karakoram mountain range, is also an important geostrategic location.
Two nuclear powers trapped in narrow nationalism
Since 2020, both India and Pakistan have considerably strengthened their air arsenals. In 2016, India signed an initial contract to acquire Rafale aircraft equipped with long-range missiles. This enabled India to strike enemy targets along the LoC without entering Pakistani territory during the recent conflict. Meanwhile, Islamabad and Rawalpindi have replaced their Mirage aircraft with Chinese J-10CE fighters. Russia has recently signed contracts to supply India with naval equipment and tanks and continues to provide New Delhi with nearly 60% of its military equipment.
It is still too early to assess the consequences of Operation Sindoor, which marked the beginning of hostilities. The term “Sindoor” has religious connotations and refers to the vermilion powder that Hindu brides put in their hair. The four days of military confrontation initiated by India on May 7 extended beyond the borders of the two Kashmirs to include four declared terrorist sites in Pakistan’s Punjab province. Rawalpindi prided itself on its moderation, even though its response paid scant regard to the civilian population of Kashmir and Jammu.
In the second phase, the two belligerents used drones to attack enemy military bases. One of these bases is located in the holy city of Rawalpindi. Analyzing satellite images will help us support or refute the theories of both sides. The website of the opposition newspaper The Wire has been blocked for relaying information from CNN. According to a French intelligence source, Pakistan damaged a Rafale, though Pakistan announced that it had shot down several. Additionally, India claimed to have targeted a Pakistani nuclear site near Sargodha in Pakistani Punjab, a claim that was denied by Rawalpindi. In a context where everything is locked down, information warfare is becoming another way of continuing the war.
The 15 million Kashmiris living on both sides of the border remain the main victims of this bloody history. War and repression in Indian Kashmir affect the daily lives of citizens who are arbitrarily arrested and have their homes destroyed. Following the recent attack, Indian tourists have once again fled the valley. It should be noted that tourism is the region’s second most important activity after agriculture.
A provisional ceasefire has been declared, and the Indian states bordering Pakistan (Gujarat, Punjab, and Rajasthan) remain under increased surveillance. Donald Trump seized the opportunity to present himself as the promoter of the cessation of hostilities, which he claims could have led to a nuclear confrontation. However, he bruised Modi’s ego in the process. Since the 1972 Treaty of Shimla ended the fourth Indo-Pakistani military confrontation, India has emphasized that resolving the Jammu and Kashmir conflict is a bilateral matter.