Geopolitical Contest: India And China In The Indian Ocean
The words of American maritime strategist, Alfred Thayer Mahan rings true in contemporary world politics as the Indian Ocean is very active ocean, where many players are contesting to gain maritime influence.
The Indian Ocean, recognized as the third-largest ocean in the world, has acquired growing strategic significance in contemporary global affairs. A major factor contributing to this importance is the network of vital trade routes that traverse the region. Notably, four out of the world’s seven most critical Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) pass through the Indian Ocean, often referred to as the “highways” of the modern global economy. This centrality in maritime trade and energy transportation has led to increasing interest from extra-regional powers—most prominently China—seeking to secure their strategic and economic interests in this geopolitically vital area.
‘Realism, a prevalent paradigm in international relations that emphasises the anarchic structure of the international system, the centrality of states, and the primacy of power and national interest, can be used to analyse the geopolitical competition between China and India in the Indian Ocean also. Within this perspective, both China and India can be understood as natural state actors engaged in the strategic pursuit of national security and power maximization in a region of considerable geostrategic significance.’
In recent years, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)—and the Indian Ocean in particular—has emerged as a major strategic hotspot in global geopolitics. Although the region has long held strategic importance due to its role as a critical conduit for international trade and energy transportation, its relevance has increased significantly in the contemporary era.
This renewed focus is especially evident in China’s foreign policy, which has increasingly prioritized the Indian Ocean as a key area of strategic interest. Through various diplomatic, economic, and military initiatives, China has actively sought to expand its presence across the region. These efforts form part of a broader strategic vision aimed at securing maritime routes and projecting influence in the IOR.
China’s growing involvement in the Indian Ocean—whether through infrastructure development, political and cultural engagement, or military presence—has significantly altered the existing security architecture of the region. Much of this expanded influence stems from Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which has facilitated China’s deeper penetration into the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This increased presence has markedly intensified the longstanding strategic rivalry between India and China.
For India, the Indian Ocean holds immense strategic value. It is not only central to India’s national security but also critical to its economic interests and overall development. India has traditionally positioned itself as a net security provider in the region, working actively to uphold maritime stability and security.
Moreover, the implications of China’s presence in the Indian Ocean extend beyond India. Regional and global powers such as Japan, the United States, and Australia are also increasingly concerned, as the evolving dynamics have the potential to reshape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. These developments underscore the need for cooperative frameworks and strategic recalibrations to maintain peace, security, and a rules-based maritime order in the region.
China’s interest in the Indian Ocean
China’s interest in the Indian Ocean is not a recent development. Historical links between China and this maritime region can be traced back to the voyages of the famed Ming Dynasty Admiral Zheng He, who utilized key Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) in the Indian Ocean to reach parts of Africa and Asia. However, following this period of early maritime engagement, China remained largely absent from the region for an extended time.
In recent years, the Indian Ocean has once again gained prominence in China’s security and strategic calculus—primarily due to economic imperatives. As China continues to fuel its industrial and economic growth, the demand for natural resources and raw materials has increased substantially. Much of these resources, particularly energy supplies, originate from the Middle East and must be transported via the Indian Ocean.
China, often regarded as the world’s manufacturing hub, depends heavily on the uninterrupted flow of raw materials to sustain its production networks. These critical supplies traverse the Indian Ocean through strategic SLOCs. Notably, 75–80 percent of China’s energy imports are seaborne, and a significant portion of these shipments pass through the Indian Ocean. This dependence underscores the strategic importance of the region to China’s long-term economic and security interests.
China’s expanding Maritime Footprints
China initiated its naval deployment in the Indian Ocean in 2008, primarily as part of international anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. Since then, Beijing has steadily expanded its maritime footprint in the region. A major development in this trajectory was the launch of China’s first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017, located strategically at the Horn of Africa.
However, this was only the beginning of China’s deeper engagement in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Through the development of key ports along what is often referred to as the “String of Pearls,” China has established a network of strategic maritime infrastructure. Many of these ports are situated near critical Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), raising concerns among regional and global observers about their underlying strategic intentions.
China currently has active port-related infrastructure projects in several IOR countries, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, Kenya, and Tanzania. A significant and increasingly observed trend is the potential “dual-use” nature of these ports—designed for commercial activities but capable of serving military functions when required. Analysts have expressed concerns that deep-water ports in countries such as Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives could be repurposed for military use, further extending China’s strategic reach in the Indian Ocean.
Implications of increasing China’s influence
China’s maritime expansion in the Indian Ocean has significant and far-reaching implications for the region. One of the primary consequences is the potential transformation of the regional security architecture. As China increases its influence, it poses a strategic challenge to the traditional dominance of regional powers, which may lead to heightened tensions and strategic competition.
At the political level, China’s growing involvement in regional governance mechanisms and its efforts to shape rules according to its interests can raise concerns regarding the sovereignty of smaller nations. This influence is often perceived as undermining the independent decision-making capacity of states within the region.
From a military standpoint, China’s expansion—whether through the establishment of naval bases or agreements that provide access to military facilities—contributes to an emerging arms race. This development not only alters the regional balance of power but also increases the potential for conflict escalation.
Economically, a major area of concern is the so-called “debt trap” diplomacy, whereby infrastructure investments and loans extended by China lead to unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. This phenomenon has already been observed in several South and Southeast Asian nations and raises broader questions about economic dependency and strategic vulnerability.
Way forward for India
In the short term, India may respond to China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean by enhancing its maritime military capabilities. However, such measures alone are unlikely to be sufficient in countering China’s long-term strategic ambitions. Therefore, India must adopt a comprehensive and forward-looking strategy that goes beyond immediate military responses.
This long-term approach should focus on strengthening diplomatic, economic, and strategic ties not only with South Asian nations but also with countries in Southeast Asia. Building resilient regional partnerships will be critical in creating a collective and coordinated response to China’s maritime expansion.
Additionally, India should take an active role in advocating for a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific. By championing this vision on international platforms and through multilateral engagements, India can contribute to the establishment of a rules-based regional order that upholds sovereignty, freedom of navigation, and mutual respect among nations.