Operation Sindoor: From Retaliaation To Strategic Restraint – Analysis
The Baisaran meadow in Pahalgam is 200 odd kms from the LoC, inside the Kashmir Valley. It is not a border town that someone can sneak into the area at will, kill civilians and go back unscathed. The CRPF and Army camp is barely 5-7 kms away from Baisaran. It defies logic that in one of the most militarized zones in the world, 4 terrorists with sophisticated firearms emerged out of nowhere, committed a heinous assault on tourists and got away. How come they were so confident that they would not be confronted or interdicted? Why was Baisaran left unguarded, or the security relaxed?
Initially, the Army had said that there was no specific intelligence alert, and the government policy had directed them to ‘stay away from tourist places.’ Later, the security agencies had clarified that they had tipped off the government over a possible attack. Why was there a lapse in communication among the concerned authorities, or why didn’t the government act on the intelligence input, if any?
Why did the EAM, S. Jaishankar, alert Pakistani authorities when India was launching Operation Sindoor? The MEA cannot evade responsibility by claiming later that his statement was misrepresented. Much later, the CDS had to clear the air that the EAM had informed Pakistan on May 7 at about 7 am. Why didn’t the MEA clarify immediately? This was a monumental PR debacle.
Why did India agree to a ceasefire when our armed forces were beating the pulp out of the Pakistanis? Indira Gandhi didn’t buckle under Nixon’s explicit pressure. Why did Modi buckle under Trump’s threats? ‘In a democracy, the government must, within the constraints of national interest, take the people into confidence, and not stonewall any questions on what brought the war so abruptly to an end,’ writes Pavan K. Varma in an opinion piece titled, ‘Govt must clearly explain what led to the ceasefire,’ for the Deccan Chronicle.
Why couldn’t New Delhi lobby successfully with the IMF members to block economic aid for Pakistan? 23 of the 24 IMF members; Russia, Italy, and France included, voted for Pakistan’s bail out. On June 1, Modi met the ADB president, Masato Kanda, and on June 3, the ADB approved $800 million loan for Pakistan despite India’s ‘staunch opposition.’ New Delhi had argued that the funds could be used for other means.
Why was it that Moscow, along with Washington and Beijing, urged New Delhi to resume direct talks which remain suspended for the last 12 years? Major world powers were seen to be endorsing Pakistan’s plea for resumption of the “composite dialogue” with India. Pakistan fared better in the perception war. Reputed international media outlets latched on to the Pakistani narrative which includes; Reuters, Bloomberg, Telegraph UK, Asia Nikkei, France 24, and the BBC. How come India being a more resourceful country, was outfoxed in the narrative war? New Delhi subsequently blocked over 8000 X accounts including those of reputed media organizations and prominent X users.
The SC’s dismissal of a PIL seeking a judicial probe into the Pahalgam attack adds a layer of ambiguity. While the court stressed public unity and the importance of upholding soldiers’ morale during a crisis, critics argued that some form of independent scrutiny could have helped India in rallying international support for action against Pakistan. On the other hand, Pakistan had successfully captured global perception. By calling for an international investigation involving China and Russia while denying its involvement, Islamabad won the backing from China, Russia, Iran, Turkey, and Malaysia, in demanding a “fair probe” into the terror attacks. ‘There are questions about India’s limitations in shaping the global narrative during Operation Sindoor,’ points out Rajat Pandit of TOI.
Knowing full well that Turkey was openly hostile to India, why did the Modi government let Celebi Aviation Holding handle sensitive ground tasks in our airports, and engage Asisguard – the maker of Songar drones – in Indore and Bhopal airports, or allow a Turkish firm to conduct a survey of the strategic Bilaspur-Mandi-Leh railway project? India, however, is unlikely to halt trade with Turkey since India runs a bilateral trade surplus of $2.73 billion.
Why did the Modi government send 9 delegations of 51 MPs and 8 former diplomats to 33 foreign capitals just to impress upon them that Operation Sindoor was India’s response to Pakistan sponsored terrorism? Why couldn’t the MEA officials do that? There are reports that some of these delegations were given a ‘lukewarm’ reception in certain capitals. How many of the 33 countries that India reached out to, extended explicit support to India? ‘The high-profile diplomatic outreach found little to no mention in the international press,’ writes Ananya Tandon for Newslaundry.
India’s concurrence to end Operation Sindoor has reinforced Pakistan’s belief that its threat of ‘nuclear first use’ worked well, and that its ‘nuclear deterrence’ is intact. Interestingly, Shehbaz Sharif told journalists he is not worried about another Indian attack in substantial part because of the “Trump factor.” PM Modi declared that, “nuclear blackmail won’t work,” but the question remains, if nuclear blackmail wasn’t working, then why was a ceasefire agreed upon? Under what pressure or deal was it done? If Trump had no role, as the MEA claims that it was a bilateral understanding worked out by the two DGMOs, then how did he become the first person to make the ceasefire public?
PM Modi said: “Terror and talks can’t go together. Terror and trade can’t go together. Terror and water can’t flow together.” Then, how could terror and ceasefire go together? He also said in his first public comments on the ceasefire, “We have only suspended our retaliatory actions on Pakistan’s terrorist and military bases for now.” But suspension of action against Pakistan means more terror from that country.
SINDOOR AND ITS AFTERMATH
India struck PAF bases and terror camps which will be re-built over time, but 16 civilians lost their lives in Poonch from Pakistani shelling, many suffered grievous injuries, the fate of the 4 terrorists involved in the Baisaran attacks remain unknown, there was no support for India in blocking the $2.4 billion IMF loan for Pakistan among the IMF members, and also 5 jawans were martyred. Sindoor did not accomplish what BJP always boasted of; taking back PoK or at least some parts of it – the Haji Pir Pass or Skardu – at a time when the IAF had an upper hand over the PAF, on the morning of May 10 after 3 days of hostilities, only to be squandered away in ‘a ceasefire deal proposed by the Pakistani DGMO’, as per Indian reports. What happened in its aftermath are; the internationalization of the Kashmir issue, India’s re-hyphenation with Pakistan, and the possibility of resumption of the bilateral composite dialogue.
China will now supply 40 J-35A stealth jets with PL 17 missiles to Pakistan. ADB has approved $800 million loan to Pakistan, and the World Bank has pledged another $ 40 billion. Russia is in advanced talks with Pakistan for reviving the Soviet built and operated Karachi steel mills, with a proposal to build a new steel plant near Port Qasim, reports Asia Nikkei, and both are also collaborating in the Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline, according to Arab News.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has hinted at the possibility of Pakistan joining BRICS in the July Summit in Brazil on being proposed by Russia and China. Kuwait and the UAE have eased visa restrictions for Pakistanis, with offers of $10 billion in investments. Shehbaz Sharif and Mohammad bin Salman have agreed to boost their strategic partnership during their meeting on June 7. Germany – the approved partner for India’s Project 75I – is now quietly marketing its IRIS-T SLMs with the Pakistanis, which performed well in Ukraine against the Russian P-800 Oniks missiles that are similar in performance to India’s BrahMos.
CHINESE SUBTERFUGE
Since 2009, India gradually shifted its strategic gaze from the Pakistan border to the China border. In recent years, the defense preparedness against China has vastly improved. After the Ladakh disengagement, Beijing would certainly want India to return to its fixation with the LoC. Beijing benefits if India-Pakistan tensions escalate, draining India’s military resources and weakening its leverage on the LAC. Commentators in India have lambasted Turkey and Azerbaijan for their support to Pakistan, but just a few have called out China’s perfidious role in supporting Pakistan. China has benefited from both the India-Pakistan conflict, and the Russia-Ukraine war, and continues to be aggressive on India’s Achilles’ heel – Ladakh. The West must understand that there is a larger dynamic at play, and it must not lose sight of the Indo-Pacific. Rather than hyphenating India and Pakistan, the West needs to support India to counter China. Pakistan is an outlier in the Indo-Pacific equation.
Just as the West used Ukraine to deplete Russia’s military strength and expose its vulnerabilities, China used Pakistan to test India’s preparedness. China’s radars, avionics, and missiles were in full display. If the war was protracted, argue some commentators, a second front could have opened up. India perhaps got a cue, and decided to wind up the operation, they claim. However, this is a flawed analysis. History shows that China had never opened up a second front against India during the India-Pakistan wars of 1965, 1971, and 1999. The risk is even more remote at the present juncture owing to China’s attractive returns from the Indian market which help in boosting its ailing economy. Despite boasting of formidable military capabilities and engaging in noisy saber-rattling, China tries to avoid direct military entanglements, choosing instead a path of deception, diplomacy, and debt entrapment to score strategic goals.
AMERICAN WHEELING-DEALING
Trump facilitated an IMF bail-out for Pakistan, while threatening India with tariffs. Indira Gandhi was unfazed by Nixon’s explicit threats, but Modi yielded to US pressure. Pakistan didn’t have the military and economic heft to confront India for long, and India could not find much moral support from its international partners for its military action. Delhi’s closest friends are embroiled in their own wars; Russia in Ukraine, Israel in its neighborhood, and, France is heavily invested in the Ukraine war.
On Feb 25, 2025, the US government gave $450 million to Pakistan to upgrade its F16 fleet. US will continue to have a tactical engagement with Pakistan. Washington needs Islamabad to curb the growing Chinese military footprint in Pakistan by recalibrating its vexed relationship with Rawalpindi. Pakistan serves as the gateway to Afghanistan, and onward to Central Asia which makes it pivotal for the US to counter China’s BRI in that region. Pakistan also shares borders with war-torn Iran. That’s why Islamabad is often treated with kid gloves. The previous US intervention in 1999 resulted in President Clinton averting an all-out war by pressurizing Musharraf to withdraw his invading forces from Kargil. This time, however, US mediation has helped bail out Pakistan from India’s full-blown military reprisal. There were reports of Pakistani COAS Asim Munir getting an invite for the US Army Day on July 14, which turned out to be misleading. Instead, he was hosted by Trump over lunch on June 18 – the man whose provocative remarks were directly linked to the Pahalgam terror attacks. Pakistan has also been taken off from the FATF grey list despite India’s objections.
RAFALE QUANDARY
Rafales’ Kashmir ‘wreck’ sparked US’ F-35 plot in India. Are some big powers angling to scuttle our future Rafale deals? India has recently placed an order for 26 Rafale-M jets for the navy at a staggering cost of $7 billion. ‘Could it be the US, to sell its pricey F-35s?’ an article in Bulgarian Military pointed out. Even JD Vance is believed to have lobbied for the F-35 Lightning during his visit to India.
The US Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, did not mince words in telling India not to buy Russian military equipment, and walk out of BRICS. Nothing can be more insulting for India with a 1.4 billion strong people to bear such US tantrums. The Russian media also asked India to dump the Rafale and buy the Su-57E with the ‘Super 30’ configuration instead, at the height of Operation Sindoor. Russia is offering India the Su 57E source codes ‘on the table,’ since France is not letting India customize the Rafale fighters according to its needs. Paris has refused to share the Rafale source codes. Experts had advised Modi to cover this clause before signing the Rafale deal but he rushed through it.
INDIA’s MUTED RESPONSE
India was initially reluctant to admit its aircraft losses, even though a bevy of credible media sources had reported on downed Indian planes, until the CDS Anil Chauhan opened up on our loss of aerial assets to Bloomberg media in Singapore on the sidelines of the Shangri La Dialogue. Air Marshal AK Bharti also spoke of combat losses but declined to specify the losses. Earlier, the IAF had declined to comment on a downed plane in Bhisiana near Bathinda airbase.
Distinguished foreign commentators and senior fellows of reputed think-tanks pointed out the Rafale’s loss. Marc Chavent, a French MP, cited NATO intelligence on the Rafale’s loss and questioned ‘SPECTRAs efficacy.’ He asked the French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noel Barrot, to address the strategic and industrial implications of the loss of the Rafale. Even Dassault CEO, Eric Trappier, held out the possibility of a Rafale’s loss. Maintaining secrecy and getting exposed by foreign sources is no Kautilyan strategy. Are we saying we can’t lose a plane ever? Our forces inflicted huge damage to Pakistan, and that won’t change even if we lost a plane or two. Hiding details which are out in the open source domain is not only pathetic, but makes us look like North Korea as if false bravado is all we have to lean on.
India should have acknowledged its combat losses much earlier, and taken control of the perception war. India’s delay in doing so, helped Pakistan make all sorts of wild claims amplified by the Turkic and Mandarin social media, which helped the international media to continue to speculate about India’s losses, and do wide-eyed reporting with fear and fanfare about Chinese military capabilities. A Bloomberg report noted that the ‘success of Chinese jets against India has raised alarm in Asia and challenged the long held perceptions of inferiority of Chinese weapons compared to Western ones.’ Even France24 remarked, ‘Chinese weapons pass combat test in India-Pakistan clash with flying colors.’
The Centre has institutionalized a policy of silence on Sindoor. No parliamentary debate is likely on the premature cessation of hostilities. At a time when the blood of the slain tourists on Baisaran’s soil is still fresh, PM Modi hit the BJPs campaign trail for Bihar elections. The Telegraph noted wryly: ‘PM at Sindoor campaign ground zero, BJP’s Bihar poll preparations in full swing.’ The suspended war is going to create more problems down the road, but its fragile peace for now. South Asia now stands precariously balanced between unstable peace and precipitous war. India wanted to prove that terrorist attacks will have consequences. Pakistan wanted to convey to New Delhi that it will not roll over and play dead. Both sides have managed to make their points, and the four-day war ended as a ‘frozen conflict’.