Beijing’s Minerals Brinkmanship May Backfire

The Communist Party’s anxiety reflects how quickly investor confidence and allied coordination hardened after the announcement.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s call for a coordinated response to Beijing’s coercion is long overdue (“Allies United Against China on Rare Earths,” Review & Outlook, Oct. 17). But Xi Jinping’s latest moves suggest something deeper than strategy—a sign of strain.

China controls roughly 70% of global rare-earth mining and more than 90% of refining. It is now extending that control from production to permission. Under new rules, even finished goods containing trace amounts of rare earths could require Chinese approval. The policy is a form of miscalculated brinkmanship.

The restrictions are driven by overconfidence that Washington and its allies must deal with Beijing on its terms—and by a growing recognition that China’s leverage is eroding as global supply chains diversify and its economy falters. It’s a familiar pattern from Beijing’s earlier coercion campaigns against Japan, South Korea and Lithuania, each of which backfired, spurring greater resilience and alignment among partners.

That miscalculation is already evident in China’s response. The People’s Daily—the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper—in recent days has scrambled to reassure global audiences that Beijing’s export controls are “legitimate actions,” not bans, meant to “preserve stability in global supply chains.” The Party’s anxiety reflects how quickly investor confidence and allied coordination hardened after the announcement, culminating in last week’s G-7 statement reaffirming unity against coercive trade practices.

The question is whether Washington can turn Beijing’s short-term leverage into long-term liability by accelerating efforts to build secure, diversified supply chains. That will require sustained investment in domestic processing, faster permitting and deeper coordination with countries already expanding capacity. The surest path forward is collective resolve—not concession.