Why Did Pakistan, Afghanistan Talks Fail and What Could Happen Next

Nearly two weeks after the Doha truce and three busy days of negotiations in Istanbul, the government of Pakistan and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan have failed to conclusively resolve their differences. The failure of negotiations at a moment when South Asia has entered a new normal of violating the sovereignty of neighboring states signifies the growing strategic instability in the region. However, the question remains, why did these negotiations fail, and do they have the potential to be successful in the future?

A Little Backgrounder

The recent conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan was not an isolated event; it was a crisis in the making from the very beginning of Taliban rule. Since the regime’s comeback, Pakistan has urged them to take tough action against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist organizations that are in open rebellion against the state of Pakistan, like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA).

These organizations have, over the years, found safe havens in Afghanistan and used the Afghan soil as an operating base to target military forces and civilians in Pakistan.

Though Pakistan had initially trod lightly with the regime due to historic ties, last year proved to be a breaking point for Pakistan when it suffered the highest number of terrorism-related casualties recorded in a decade. The government in Pakistan responded by making strikes deep inside Afghan territory, targeting terrorist networks.

However, despite the strikes, the Taliban regime showed no progress toward dismantling these networks. In 2025, the instances of terrorist attacks again reached record numbers, with casualties far surpassing the previous year. As a consequence, Pakistan resorted to strength once again on the 9th of October and did cross-border strikes to put pressure on the Taliban regime.

What is Holding the Talks Hostage?

Though the strikes on Afghanistan and crossfire had initially culminated in the Doha truce, the following days proved tense as both countries joined hands in Istanbul to work out a framework for lasting peace in the region. However, after three days of tough negotiations, both sides came back home empty-handed with little to show for it except aggressive posturing. Both have blamed each other for the failure of negotiations, and both have warned of grave consequences if their red lines are crossed.

The failure of negotiations between the Taliban and their former patrons and partners seems rather ironic. However, understanding the reluctance of the Taliban to take a tough stance on TTP requires an understanding of their ideology and their long history of mutual resistance and collaboration with the TTP.

Though Pakistan might have opted for the policy of good/bad Taliban, their counterparts in Afghanistan do not share this worldview. For them, the struggle of TTP against the government of Pakistan is legitimate, and it is their religious obligation to help their brothers in their struggle against an “illegitimate regime.”

Moreover, aside from the ideological alignment, the Afghan Taliban share strong ties with the TTP that stretch back decades. Both groups had been involved in the mutual resistance against the Soviets in the 1980s and the Americans in the first two decades of the 21st century. This long history of mutual resistance has created deep bonds and a sense of brotherhood among the ranks of both groups.

Therefore, even if the top Taliban leadership wanted to distance themselves from the TTP, they would have a tough time purging the TTP-sympathizing elements within the group. There is also the danger that if the top leadership does take a tough stance against TTP, it would come across as compromising the principles of the organization and conceding ground to an “illegitimate regime.” This can further lead to disillusionment within the Taliban ranks, some of whom might join anti-Taliban forces such as ISIS-K.

To prevent such a fiasco, the Afghan Taliban had demanded time from Islamabad since their return to power. However, after four years of growing insurgencies and terrorist attacks in KPK and Balochistan, Islamabad has grown impatient with prospects of progress from the Taliban regime.

What Can Pakistan Do to Succeed in Negotiations?

Though the initial conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan ended in a truce, the governments in both countries have since failed to agree to a peace framework in Istanbul. This development comes at a time when India is increasing its strategic engagement in Afghanistan, which has revived the nightmares of a two-front war in Islamabad. Pakistan has responded to the whole situation with angst and contempt rather than restraint and diplomacy.

The increasing engagement of India and the Taliban’s reluctance to take a tough stance on TTP suggest that Pakistan does not really have many options. Use of strength might seem effective in the short term but it will not deter a battle-hardened group with decades of experience in asymmetric warfare. It will only cause the deaths of innocent Afghans and breed more resentment amongst a population that already has a negative perception of Pakistan.

The use of force will, however, exhaust the military resources in Pakistan that might otherwise be useful in the case of an attack from India. So, what can Pakistan really do to succeed?

At the time, Pakistan does have bargaining power over trade and refugees vis-à-vis Afghanistan. Rather than using the stick, Pakistan should use the carrot by providing positive incentives, like enhancing bilateral trade or adopting a policy of leniency toward the Afghan refugees, to the Afghan regime to take a tough stance on TTP while also allowing them the time to slowly distance themselves from the group. Though this strategy might take some time to work, it is the only viable option Pakistan has. Otherwise, Islamabad will alienate the Taliban, who will, without doubt, welcome India to help them in their troubles with Pakistan.

And with the economy in the doldrums and insurgencies in two provinces, that is something that Pakistan cannot really afford right now.