Towards state failure
Since the ouster of elected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, on August 5, 2024, Bangladesh has been experiencing political volatility, social turmoil, and an endless spate of violence. With around a month remaining before the 13th National Parliamentary Elections, scheduled to be held on February 12, 2026, law enforcement agencies have identified more than one-third of Bangladesh’s polling centres as ‘risky’.
As reported on January 7, 2026, according to the Police, 17,556 of the 42,761 polling centres nationwide have been marked as risky, with Dhaka recording the highest number. The data further indicates that out of the 2,131 polling centres under the Dhaka Metropolitan Police (DMP), 695 are ‘highly risky’ and 1,133 are risky. In the Chittagong Metropolitan area, 312 out of 607 polling centres have been classified as highly risky. Significant numbers of centres in Gazipur, Khulna, Sylhet, Rajshahi, Rangpur, and Barisal metropolitan areas have also been placed on the risk list.
This is another indicator of the current disorder in the country.
In order to control anarchy and violence, Muhammad Yunus’s caretaker government launched Operation Devil Hunt in two phases. In the first (February 8 – March 2, 2025): 12, 220 people were arrested; 188 locally made weapons were recovered; and 50 firearms were seized. In its ongoing second phase, which started on December 13, 2025, 15,009 people have been arrested; and 218 firearms were seized (as of January 9, 2026). The second phase began with an escalation in violent incidents, following the shooting of Sharif Osman Hadi, senior leader of the Inqilab Mancha, on December 12, by masked attackers in Dhaka. He eventually succumbed to his injuries on December 18, in Singapore.
Despite the launch of Operation Devil Hunt, continued killings and murders have raised serious concerns ahead of the national election.
So far this year, at least four murders have taken place in Dhaka city alone. In the latest incident on January 8, 2026, unidentified assailants shot dead former Swechchhasebak Dal leader Azizur Rahman Musabbir and injured another man near the Super Star Hotel in Karwan Bazar. On January 6, scrap dealer Shahabuddin was hacked to death in Kadamtali. On January 1, Naeem Kibria, a lawyer, was beaten to death in the Bashundhara Residential Area. On the same day, Shipon, a 24-year-old surgical assistant, was hacked to death in the Hazaribagh Zhauchar area.
Bangladesh is rapidly heading for failed state status, with the caretaker government unable to restore order, and a deteriorating law and order situation.
According to the Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK), 102 people were killed in political violence in 2025. The figure was 100 in 2024, 45 in 2023, and 70 in 2022. ASK noted, further, that 165 people were killed in mob beatings between January and October in 2025. The numbers were 128 in 2024, 51 in 2023, 36 in 2022, and 28 in 2021, a nearly five-fold increase in four years.
The Annual Report of the Human Rights Support Society (HRSS), released on December 31, 2025, recorded 914 incidents of political violence during the year, resulting in 133 people killed and 7,511 injured. Those killed included 93 Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) activists, 23 Awami League activists, three Jamaat-e-Islami members, one Inqilab Mancha activist, one member of the anti-discrimination students’ movement, six United People’s Democratic Front (UPDF) operatives, and one cadre of an extremist group. More than 50,000 people were arrested in various cases, most of them linked to the Awami League, Jubo League, Swechasebak League, and the banned Chhatra League. Police also arrested at least 47 militants of the banned Hizb ut-Tahrir (HuT).
Mob violence and lynching remained a major concern throughout 2025. HRSS documented 292 such incidents, linked to allegations of theft, robbery, extortion, dominance disputes, and alleged religious offences. These incidents killed 168 people and injured 248. Journalists also sustained attacks. In 318 incidents, at least 539 journalists were attacked, injured, assaulted, threatened, or harassed. Three among them were killed, 273 injured, 57 assaulted, 83 threatened, and 17 arrested. In addition, 107 journalists were accused in 34 cases.
Within an enveloping environment of disruption and widening radicalization, no one is currently safe in Bangladesh. The upcoming election will be another major pretext for violence by or against prominent stakeholders.