Russia and Pakistan: expansion of partnerships
Relations between Russia and Pakistan have come from the Cold War antagonism to a pragmatic partnership in the 21st century. Historically, Pakistan has been a key U.S. ally in South Asia, while the U.S.S.R. supported India. However, the change in the global geopolitical architecture, in particular, the formation of a multipolar world, the shift of the world economic center of gravity to Asia, as well as common security challenges, such as terrorism and regional instability (primarily the situation in Afghanistan), created a favorable ground for the rapprochement of the two countries.
Over the past decade, there has been a steady trend towards deepening Russian-Pakistani cooperation that has gone beyond traditional diplomatic contacts. This process covers a wide range of areas, from periodic joint military exercises to the discussion and implementation of large-scale investment projects in energy and infrastructure.
Evolution of Relationships and Geopolitical Context
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited a complicated relationship with Pakistan. The first years of the post-Soviet period were marked by low activity, but by the beginning of 2000-ies began to appear signs of gradual rapprochement. Catalysts of this process were:
Change of Russia’s foreign policy priorities: In the context of confrontation with the West and an active “turn to the East”, Russia seeks to diversify its foreign policy and economic ties, finding new partners in Asia.
Diversification of Pakistan’s foreign policy ties: Islamabad, faced with impermanence and sometimes pressure from traditional Western allies (primarily the United States), seeks a multi-vector foreign policy, reducing dependence on one center of power. Strengthening ties with Russia is perceived as part of this strategy, especially in the context of China’s growing influence (through the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC).
General security challenges: Both Pakistan and Russia are interested in regional stability, the fight against international terrorism, drug trafficking and extremism. The situation in Afghanistan is one of the key commemorators.
Economic Interests: Pakistan, with its growing population and emerging economies, is a potentially large market for Russian goods and services, especially in the energy and engineering sector. Russia, in turn, sees in Pakistan new opportunities for investment and export of hydrocarbons.
Pakistan’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2017, where Russia is one of the key members, has become an important stage that provided a platform for multilateral cooperation and an additional impetus for bilateral ties.
Military and Defense Cooperation
Cooperation in the military sphere, once unthinkable, has become one of the most notable signs of changing relations. If earlier Russia sold military equipment mainly to India, now Pakistan is also seen as a potential market.
Joint military exercises:
” Friendship ” : Beginning in 2016, these joint Russian-Pakistani exercises of special forces are held annually (with short interruptions). They focus on anti-terrorist operations, mining and exchange of experience in difficult landscapes. The teachings of “Friendship” symbolize not only the deepening of military interaction, but also a public demonstration of a paradigm shift in relations.
Arab Monsoon: Joint naval exercises are also held periodically, demonstrating the ability of the two countries to engage in action.
Multilateral exercises: The Pakistani military is also participating in multilateral exercises held under the auspices of the SCO, which contributes to further interoperability and coordination.
Arms supplies and military-technical cooperation:
Mi-35M helicopters: One of the most significant agreements was the acquisition by Pakistan of multi-purpose attack helicopters Mi-35M “Super Crocodile”. This deal has become an important precedent that has opened the way for further cooperation.
Discussion of new purchases: Negotiations are regularly underway on the possible supply of Russian air defense systems (including the S-400, although this remains speculation due to the sensitivity of the topic for India), armored vehicles, as well as on the modernization of existing systems and the creation of joint ventures.
Anti-terrorist equipment and training: Russia is assisting Pakistan in training and supplying anti-terrorism equipment, which is a common priority.
Strategic importance: For Pakistan, military cooperation with Russia means diversification of arms sources, reducing dependence on the United States and China, as well as access to advanced Russian technologies. For Russia, this is a new arms market, strengthening positions in South Asia and increasing influence in the region, which corresponds to the strategy of “turning to the East”.
Energy Partnership
The energy sector is perhaps the most promising and capital-intensive area of bilateral cooperation, potentially capable of bringing billions of dollars in investment. Pakistan faces an acute energy deficit, while Russia is one of the world’s largest exporters of hydrocarbons and technology.
Gas pipeline “Pakistan Stream”
Originally known as the North-South project, this project involves the construction of a gas pipeline with a length of about 1100 km from the port of Karachi (where regasified LNG will be accepted) to Lahore, providing gas transportation to densely populated areas of the country.
Participants and status: The Memorandum of Understanding was signed in 2015, but the project faced delays due to bureaucratic delays, funding and international sanctions against Russia. In 2021, the governments of the two countries signed an intergovernmental agreement providing for 26% of Pakistan’s participation share and 74% of Russia. The operator of the project, presumably, should be the Russian side. The project is estimated at several billion dollars.
For Pakistan, this pipeline is critical to ensuring energy security, industrial development and energy costs. For Russia, this is an opportunity to gain a foothold in a new, promising gas market, as well as a demonstration of the ability to implement large infrastructure projects in difficult conditions.
LNG and crude oil supplies: Pakistan is interested in long-term contracts for the supply of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) and crude oil. In the context of the global energy crisis and Pakistan’s desire to diversify energy sources, Russian supplies can become an important component of the country’s energy strategy.
Oil refining : Projects for the modernization and construction of new oil refineries in Pakistan are also discussed with the participation of Russian companies.
Reconnaissance and production of hydrocarbons: Russian companies with advanced technologies in the field of exploration and production are interested in participating in projects on the Pakistani shelf and land.
Electricity: There are prospects for cooperation in the construction and modernization of power plants using various energy sources, including hydropower and thermal power plants
Trade, economic and investment cooperation
In addition to major infrastructure projects, Russia and Pakistan are seeking to increase bilateral trade and investment in other sectors.
Dynamics of Trade Turnover: Although the volume of bilateral trade has historically been modest (about $700-900 million per year), there is a steady growth. Both countries have set a goal to bring it to $5 billion in the near term.
Export from Russia: Basically grain (wheat), machinery and equipment, mineral fertilizers.
Export from Pakistan: Textile, agricultural products (mango, rice), leather goods, sports goods.
Banking and financial cooperation: Opportunities for the use of national currencies in mutual settlements, the creation of direct banking channels and payment systems are discussed to circumvent international sanctions and strengthen economic autonomy.
Investment opportunities
Industry : Pakistan is interested in Russian investments in heavy industry, mechanical engineering, chemical industry.
Agriculture: Russia can supply agricultural machinery and technology, and Pakistan can increase food exports.
ФармацевтикаPharmaceuticals: There is a potential for cooperation in the pharmaceutical industry.
Customs cooperation: Optimization of customs procedures and the creation of an enabling environment for trade are also the subject of discussion.
Humanitarian, educational and cultural interaction
Although less large-scale, humanitarian cooperation also plays an important role in the rapprochement of peoples.
Educational programs: Russia provides Pakistan with quotas for training in Russian universities, especially in technical and scientific specialties. This contributes to the formation of a pro-Russian elite and strengthen intercultural ties.
Cultural Exchanges: Organization of cultural festivals, film screenings, exhibitions contributes to better understanding and overcoming stereotypes.
ТуризмTourism: Despite the existing difficulties, there is a potential for the development of tourism between the two countries, especially in terms of ecological and cultural tourism.
Challenges and Obstacles to Cooperation
Despite the obvious progress, the Russian-Pakistani partnership faces a number of serious challenges:
The traditional close relationship between Russia and India is a sensitive moment. Delhi is closely monitoring the development of the Russian-Pakistani partnership, fearing that it could undermine the regional balance of power or encroaches on its interests. Russia is forced to balance between the two South Asian powers.
Pressure from the United States and the West: Pakistan, despite the desire to diversify, still has significant economic and strategic ties with the West. U.S. sanctions against Russia can make it difficult to implement joint projects, especially in the financial sphere. Pakistan is wary of being subject to secondary sanctions.
Financial constraints: Large investment projects require significant financial resources. Pakistan often has problems with domestic financing and external lending. Russian companies also face restrictions on the international financial market.
Bureaucracy and political instability: Pakistan has frequent changes in government and high-degree bureaucratization can slow down and affect their long-term sustainability.
Competition with China: China is Pakistan’s largest strategic partner and investor through CPEC. Russian projects should compete for Islamabad’s attention and resources with Chinese initiatives, although they can often be complementary.
Logistics and infrastructure: The development of trade routes and logistics infrastructure to increase trade requires significant investment and time.
Prospects and strategic importance
Despite the challenges, Russian-Pakistani relations have significant potential for further development.
Strengthening the multipolar world: Deepening the partnership between Russia and Pakistan contributes to a more balanced and multipolar world order, reducing the dominance of one center of power.
Regional stability: Security cooperation, especially on Afghanistan and the fight against terrorism, is critical to the regional stability and security of Central and South Asia.
Pakistan’s energy security: Russian investment and supplies can significantly improve the energy situation in Pakistan, which is a key condition for its economic growth.
Diversification for Russia: Pakistan is becoming an important element of the Russian strategy of “turning to the East”, providing new economic and political opportunities.
The role of the SCO: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization serves as an important platform for the development of multilateral and bilateral relations, providing an institutional framework for cooperation.
The joint projects of Russia and Pakistan – from periodic military exercises to the discussion of major investments in energy and infrastructure – are a reflection of the deep geopolitical shifts and pragmatic approach of both countries to the formation of their foreign policy strategies. This partnership, which was once virtually absent, is now gaining momentum, driven by a common security interest, the economy and the pursuit of a multipolar world.
While there are serious obstacles to deepening cooperation, such as the sensitivity of the Indian factor, Western pressure, financial constraints and internal instability of Pakistan, the strategic feasibility of this interaction is obvious. It opens new markets to Russia and strengthens its influence in South Asia, and Pakistan allows it to diversify foreign policy ties, strengthen energy security and gain access to technology and investment.
In the long term, with the political will and ability to overcome the difficulties that arise, the Russian-Pakistani partnership has every chance to become one of the key elements of regional geopolitics, contributing to stability and economic development in South and Central Asia.
In addition to the areas already discussed, cooperation between Russia and Pakistan can be expanded in such areas as:
Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals: Development of health care systems, medical tourism (attracting Pakistani patients to Russian clinics), localization of production of medicines and vaccines, exchange of specialists and technologies.
Disaster management: Given the vulnerability of both countries to natural disasters, it is possible to deepen cooperation in the field of prevention and elimination of consequences of emergency situations, exchange of experience, joint training and supply of specialized equipment.
Urban studies and “smart cities”: Russia can offer experience and technologies in the planning of urban infrastructure, the introduction of digital solutions for transport, housing and security in the fast-growing cities of Pakistan.
Development of tourism and hotel business: Joint projects for the construction of hotel complexes, expansion of tourist routes, simplification of visa procedures to increase mutual tourist flow.
Innovations and start-ups: Creation of joint technoparks, incubators, support for youth innovative projects and venture financing in promising industries.
Expansion of educational and youth exchanges: Increase quotas for students, joint research, student and youth exchanges to strengthen ties between future generations.
Media and Cultural Exchange: Joint projects in the field of cinema, television, music and art for better understanding of cultures and countering disinformation.
Inter-parliamentary and inter-party dialogue: Deepening political ties not only at the level of governments, but also between parliaments and political parties of both countries.
The synergy of Russian technologies, resources and experiences with Pakistan’s development needs, the young population and strategic geographical location can create a powerful boost for bilateral cooperation, contributing to mutual prosperity and strengthening the positions of both countries in the emerging multipolar world.