SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Pakistan: KP: Terrorised Police
On November 15, 2022, six Policemen, including an assistant sub-inspector, were killed when two terrorists on a motorcycle opened fire on a Police patrol near a fair in the Dadiwala Police Station area of Lakki Marwat District in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack. TTP ‘spokesperson’ Muhammad Khurasani said the Police patrol was ambushed while it was on its way to carry out a raid in the area. The militants snatched Police weapons before fleeing, Muhammad Khurasani added.
On November 9, 2022, two Policemen were killed and another two sustained injuries when terrorists armed with rockets and grenades attacked the Zaghzai Police Station in the Barmal tehsil (revenue unit) of South Waziristan District in KP. According to the Police, terrorists killed Hameedullah and Farmanullah, set fire to a Police vehicle, and took away Police weapons while escaping. TTP claimed responsibility for the attack. TTP ‘spokesperson’ Muhammad Khurasani asserted that Army troops were their main target and warned the Police to avoid confronting TTP cadres.
On October 30, a Policeman and a civilian were killed and four Policemen were injured, as terrorists attacked the Daraban Police check post in the Dera Ismail Khan District of KP.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 63 Policemen have been killed and another 50 injured in 49 incidents of terrorist attack on the Police in 2022 (data till November 27, 2022). During the corresponding period of previous year, 23 Policemen were killed and another 13 were injured in 21 terrorist incidents. Through 2021, in 24 incidents, 25 Policemen were killed and 14 were injured. Since march 6, when SATP started compiling data on terrorism in Pakistan, at least 812 policemen have been killed and 989 injured in 651 attacks targeting policemen.
As the data suggests, there has been a significant surge in attacks on policemen in the current year, with 2022 recording the highest tally in a year, with over a month still to go, since 2014, when there were 54 incidents. Also, in terms of policemen killed in such attacks, 2022 is the highest in a year since 2013, when there were 106 fatalities, the highest in a year since 2007 and 2008, each of which recorded 207 Police fatalities.
Though not every attack has been claimed, it is well established that the TTP has a strong base in KP and most of the attacks have been carried out by the outfit. Indeed, on September 4, 2022, TTP ‘spokesperson’ Muhammad Khurasani claimed responsibility for three recent attacks on the Police: the killing of a Police official in Lakki Marwat [September 4], an attack on a police constable in Dera Ismail Khan [September 2], and an attack in Peshawar that had claimed the life of one security official and left three others injured [August 10].
Meanwhile, according to a report issued by the Central Police Office on November 19, 2022, as many as 105 Policemen have been killed in 151 militant attacks in 2022 across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). A total of 109 Policemen sustained injuries in these attacks. The report added that the weapons left behind by NATO forces in Afghanistan were being used against KP Police, including thermal imaging devices which enabled the terrorists to stage surprise attacks under the cover of darkness. “These attacks were carried out by militants released from prisons after the fall of Kabul last year,” adds the report. The most frequent militant target were the police mobile vehicles, the report added. Quoting an unnamed senior KP security officer, the report noted that the mud-layered checkpoints in the tribal District, including Dera Ismail Khan, Lakki Marwat, Bannu, Tank, and South and North Waziristan, were under serious security risk.
TTP has restarted making deep roads inside KP since the Afghan Taliban returned to power in Kabul on August 15, 2021. The talks between TTP and the Government, mediated by the Afghan Taliban, which started on May 1, 2022, meanwhile, have all but collapsed.
Indeed, Aimal Wali Khan, the KP President of the Awami National Party (ANP), which was in Government during the KP’s troubled years (2008-2013), warned on September 22, 2021, that a new wave of terrorism was emerging, and that it would engulf the entire country if not controlled at the present stage. “The terrorists are regrouping in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,” Aimal Wali Khan declared. He asked the Government to contain the spread of extremism and terrorism, and added that a failure to take concrete steps would send the message that the Government or state institutions were party to the violence. Currently, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is in power in the Province.
As the TTP was engaged in peace talks, other groups that were associated with the outfit also came to the fore, launching attacks on Policemen in the province, most prominently including the Ittehad Musallah Islami Mujahideen (IMAM). Some of the attacks on Policemen claimed by IMAM include:
On July 22, 2022, suspected IMAM militants opened fire on a police patrol van, leaving two persons injured, including a policeman, at Khwar Bazaar in the Akora Khattak area of Nowshera District in KP.
On July 16, 2022, IMAM militants killed District Police Officer Gul Rehman near his residence in the Lakki Machan Khel area of Lakki Marwat District in KP.
In addition to TTP and its associated groups, the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) has emerged as another threat to Policemen in KP since the Taliban’s return to Kabul. IS-KP has since claimed responsibility of two attacks on Policemen. On August 19, 2022, two policemen, Havaldar Saeed Ahmad and Sepoy Inayatur Rahman, were killed in an explosion carried out by IS-KP near a check post in Bajaur District. On July 16, 2022, IS-KP terrorists attacked and killed two persons, including a policeman, at a check post in the Arjali Nadi locality of Bara in the Khyber District of KP.
Unsurprisingly, other branches of the Security Forces (SF) have also witnessed surge in terms of fatalities and attacks. According to the SATP database, KP has recorded at least 148 SF fatalities (including policemen) so far in 2022, the highest in a year since 2013 when 181 SF fatalities (including policemen) were reported. KP recorded a peak of 494 SF fatalities (including Policemen) in 2009.
Policemen in KP, along with other branches of SFs deployed in the Province, are under increased threat from terrorists, in particular from TTP. With the talks between the TTP and the Government nearing a formal collapse, such attacks are bound to increase in the days to come.
Nepal: Fractured Mandate
The five-party Joint Ruling Alliance (JRA) led by Nepali Congress (NC) is set to retain power according to the results declared so far, in Nepal’s parliamentary elections held in a single phase on November 20, 2022.
At the time of writing, of 165 seats in the House of Representatives (HoR) for which elections were held, results of 146 seats had been declared, of which JRA won 78 seats. Of the five constituents of the JRA, the NC won 48 seats followed by the Nepal Communist Party-Maoist Centre (NCP-MC), 16; Nepal Communist Party-United Socialist (CPN-US), nine; Loktantrik Samajwadi Party-Nepal (NSP-N), four; and Rashtriya Janmorcha, one.
The main opposition party, the Nepal Communist Party-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) won 40 seats. Its alliance partners Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal (JSP-N) won seven and six seats, respectively. Five seats went to Independents.
The remaining seats were won by the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (seven), Nagrik Unmukt Party (one), Nepal Mazdoor Kisan Party (one) and Janmat Party (one).
In the 275-member HoR, the remaining 110 members will be elected through a proportional representation (PR) system.
The CPN-UML has received the highest number of votes under the PR system with the party bagging 2,457,836 votes, closely followed by the Nepali Congress with 2,341,122 votes. The NCP-MC with 1,027,703 votes is at number three, closely followed by the RSP with 101,2964 votes. A total of 47 parties have won votes under the PR system, with the Nationalist Peoples Party wining the smallest number, 1,584 votes.
Meanwhile, in five out of the seven provinces, the JRA is set to form the government, while there is uncertainty in the remaining two provinces, including Madhesh Pradesh.
These results are unlikely to bring an end to the ongoing political instability within the country.
It is pertinent to recall that, in the previous elections held in two phases in 2017 (November 26 and December 7), the undivided CPN-UML had won 80 seats, followed by NCP-MC, 36 seats; NC, 23 seats and NCP-MC 36 seats. The Rashtriya Janata Party Nepal and Sanghiya Samajwadi Forum Nepal had won 11 and 10 seats, respectively. Of the remaining five seats four went to four different parties – RPP, Rashtriya Janmorcha, Naya Shakti Party Nepal and the Nepal Mazdoor Kisan Party. One seat went to an independent candidate.
Prior to the 2017 elections, the CPN-UML, NCP-MC and Naya Shakti Party-Nepal had entered into an alliance to form the Government under the leadership of K. P. Sharma Oli. The bonhomie between the CPN-UML and NCP-MC was so strong that the two parties, in a historic development on May 17, 2018, at a joint meeting held at Oli’s residence in Baluwatar, Kathmandu, announced, their merger and the formation of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP). However, the geniality did not last long and a tussle between Oli and NCP-MC leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda over the issue of control over the party gradually deepened, ultimately leading to demerger of the NCP, with the NCM-MC moving out of the coalition. Eventually, Oli was forced to resign from the post of Prime Minister on July 13, 2021.Sher Bahadur Deuba of the NC became the Prime Minister on the same day, with the support of NCP-MC and other parties. Even after the formation of the Deuba-led JRA government, however, there was always a question mark over the stability of the government due to inherent ideological differences within the parties of the ruling alliance.
Moreover, between these two elections several parties split, the most prominent being the break-up within the CPN-UML. These splits have muddled the political environment even further.
Not surprisingly, several reports emerged of parties within the ruling and opposition alliances, as well as outside these, attempting to switch sides or joining one alliance or the other just before the elections, purely on considerations of electoral gain.
Indeed, Manish Kumar Suman, the spokesman for JSP-N, which is currently in alliance with the CPN-UML, admitted, “We still have our ideological differences, but we agreed to forge a partnership to improve our electoral prospects.”
Meanwhile, there was a looming threat of violence during elections as the inner-party and intra-party rifts deepened. Further, the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal had announced an active boycott of the elections, with spokesperson Khadga Bahadur Bishwokarma warning,
Our party has decided to totally disregard the November 20 federal and provincial polls to be conducted by the capitalist government. We have decided to give an appropriate response if the state suppresses our party’s publicity programmes.
There were many violent protests over a period of time on issues related to various political issues and governance before the elections, which had vitiated the security environment in the country.
Nevertheless, the elections were largely peaceful. Between the date of notification of the elections, August 4, 2022, and November 19, 2022, a day before elections, there was no violent incident. On the election day, November 20, however, six incidents of violence were reported:
One person was shot dead at a polling station in Nateshwari Basic School of Tribeni Municipality in Bajura District in Province No. 7. The 24-year-old man was shot dead by the Police following a dispute after the voting was over.
Three persons were injured in firing during a clash between CPN-UML and NC cadres during the voting in Triveni Municipality-7.
An assistant polling officer, identified as Prem Bhandari, and an army officer, Arjun Uparkoti, were injured in a clash at the Devkota Basic School Unapani polling station of Sarkegad Rural Municipality-3 in Humla District (Province No. 6). The Police fired 17 rounds to control the situation at the polling station.
One Policeman was injured when the Police fired 15 rounds to control the situation that erupted over a dispute between the CPN-UML and ruling coalition cadres in Tamakoshi in Dolakha District (Province No. 3).
A bomb exploded in the Khairapur polling station of Gularia municipality-2 in Bardiya in Province No. 5.
Police fired after a group of 15 to 20 cadres of the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) tried to disrupt the elections and burn the ballot box in Chitwan District in Province No. 3.
During the 2017 elections, as well, there had been pre-poll violence in various Districts. According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), 16 persons were injured in 13 incidents of bomb explosion and another 11 were injured in five incidents of clashes. Security fears were also triggered amid incidents of explosions targeting candidates and their campaigns in several parts of the country. Some violent incidents were also reported on the polling days.
Meanwhile, though the JRA is likely to retain power after the current elections, there is a strong possibility of persistent political confusion, given the fractured mandate, with no single party emerging a clear-cut winner and pre-poll alliances between parties with strong ideological differences.
So far, despite the political chaos, peace has prevailed in Nepal. However, it will be a challenge for the political establishment to ensure the longevity of the prevailing peace in such a political environment in the long run. In particular, the divided vote in Madhesh Pradesh could lead to the formation of an unstable government, and may ignite the latent security threat in the region, in particular, and the surrounding areas at large.
AFGHANISTAN
Taliban have become more defiant than in the past, asserts US Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights Rina Amiri: Rina Amiri, the US Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls and Human Rights, on November 24, in response to the lashing of 14 people, including women, in Logar Province says that the Taliban have become more defiant against the world than in the past. Amiri tweeted a report on the punishment of the accused people in Logar, saying that the event was terrible and dangerous because it showed the Taliban’s defiance against the world. Hasht-e Subh Daily, November 24, 2022.
Rights of Afghanistan’s women and girls violated under Taliban, asserts Amnesty International: Amnesty International on November 25, stated that the rights of Afghan women and girls have been violated under the rule of the Taliban in the last 15 months. It stated, “We must remember that the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan have been continually violated by the Taliban for 15 months now”. Hasht-e Subh Daily, November 26, 2022.
Taliban issues a new order that women cannot visit health centers without male in Nangarhar Province: On November 24, Taliban’s Vice and Virtue Department issued a new order in nine Districts of Nangarhar Province, indicating that women cannot visit health clinics or have a doctor examine them without a male companion. Local sources in Nangarhar confirmed that this order was announced to the residents of Achin, Ghanikhel, Nazian, Durbaba, Goshta, Kama, Khogyani, Shirzad and Surkhroud Districts. Hasht-e Subh Daily, November 26, 2022.
UNAMA calls on Taliban to end gender-based violence in Afghanistan: United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) on November 25, called on Taliban leadership to end violence against women and the “broader deterioration of women’s rights” in an effort to establish a sustainable peace in the country. UNAMA made the call at a time the world marks the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women and the start of the global 16 Days of Activism against gender-based violence. Khaama Press, November 26, 2022.
INDIA
Islamic Resistance Council claims responsibility of Mangaluru blast: A little-known outfit Islamic Resistance Council has reportedly claimed responsibility for the Mangaluru explosion, saying one of its “Mujahid brother Mohammed Shariq attempted to attack a Hindutva Temple in Kadri’. Home Minister of Karnataka, Araga Jnanendra on November 25, said the Centre has directed the National Investigation Agency (NIA) to probe the case. In a statement, Jnanendra said the state government had recommended an NIA probe into the case. India TV News, November 26, 2022.
PFI has organised structure in Gulf countries for mobilising funds, according to ED: The Popular Front of India (PFI) has a “well-structured and organised” presence in the Gulf countries for raising and mobilising funds, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) said on November 21 after a local court took cognizance of its latest charge sheet filed against three PFI office bearers. The federal probe agency had filed the prosecution complaint or charge sheet last week before a special Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) court in Patiala House, Delhi. The Print, November 22, 2022.
PAKISTAN
BNA says its top ‘commander’ is in Pakistani forces’ custody: The Baloch Nationalist Army (BNA) revealed, on November 22, that its top ‘commander’ Gulzar Imam alias Shambay is in the custody of Pakistan’s secret services. According to a press release by the “pro-independence” armed group, BNA that its top leader Gulzar Imam went missing and is now in the custody of Pakistani intelligence agencies. The Balochistan Post, November 24, 2022.
SRI LANKA
President Ranil Wickremesinghe invites all political parties join to solve the ethnic problem after the budget: President Ranil Wickremesinghe, on November 23, said that a discussion will be held after the conclusion of the budget on December 11 to reach a consensus among all political parties to achieve a permanent solution to the ethnic crisis, including power devolution. Delivering a special statement in parliament the President Wickremesinghe said he will not dissolve the parliament as there is a big problem in the economy of the country. Colombo Page, November 24, 2022.