Dismissal Of China’s Foreign Minister Reflects Internal Turmoil – Analysis

The top decision-making body of China’s rubber-stamp parliament voted Tuesday to oust foreign minister Qin Gang and reappoint his predecessor Wang Yi to the role.

Analysts say the surprising personnel reshuffle weeks after Qin disappeared from public view reflects turmoil in China’s diplomatic system and expect it will have a negative impact on Beijing’s engagement with other countries.

The 57-year-old career diplomat has long been viewed as one of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s trusted allies. Qin was appointed as China’s foreign minister last December, after serving as the ambassador to the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic. He disappeared from the public’s view after meeting officials from Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Russia on June 25.

“Qin’s political career is over and I believe Wang will only play a transitional role amid this simmering crisis in China’s diplomatic system,” Wu Qiang, an independent academic in China, told VOA. He added that Qin’s removal and the rumors that have been associated with his disappearance reflect the level of uncertainty within China’s top leadership.

China’s state media have not elaborated on Qin’s removal but it follows weeks of speculation over his prolonged public disappearance. The lack of information about Qin’s situation follows the Chinese Communist Party’s long-standing practice of not discussing sensitive issues.

“There is no explanation of his removal, which creates an impression of lack of due process, uncertainty and arbitrariness,” said Ian Chong, an expert on China’s foreign policy at the National University of Singapore (NUS).

Qin, viewed as an outspoken representative of China around the world, was believed to have played a pivotal role in facilitating the restoration of communication between Beijing and Washington in recent weeks. As of Tuesday evening local time, China had removed information about Qin from the foreign ministry’s website.

Some observers say Qin’s rapid rise through the ranks reflects the risks that come with Xi’s “one-man politics,” as personnel appointments are no longer determined through a robust internal review process.

“China used to be very rigorous on personnel appointment, which includes reviewing candidates’ background and consultation with different stakeholders,” said Alfred Wu, an expert on Chinese politics at the National University of Singapore.

He told VOA that Xi Jinping’s centralized decision-making process has “disabled” the checks and balances that used to exist in the Communist Party.

“China’s system is broken,” Wu said.

An attempt to minimize the impact of Qin’s removal

Analysts think the decision to replace Qin with an experienced figure such as Wang reflects a wish by China’s top leadership to minimize the impact of the sudden personnel change.

“At this point, the leadership might not be confident in Qin’s deputies, so they hope to appoint someone who represents a certain degree of continuity as China’s foreign minister,” Chong from NUS told VOA.

Independent Chinese expert Wu adds that Beijing hopes to minimize the impact of Qin’s removal by appointing a familiar figure like Wang to the role of foreign minister.

“Beijing wants to do some damage control to its interaction with other countries, and replacing Qin with Wang can avoid creating more uncertainty,” he explained.

Wang, who was China’s foreign minister between 2013 and 2022, is now both the Communist Party’s director of foreign affairs and China’s foreign minister, which some experts say could be counterproductive to China’s foreign policy implementation.

“Wang’s appointment may be seen as a transitional arrangement, which may compromise the effectiveness of China’s international outreach,” said Wen-ti Sung, an expert on Chinese politics at the Australian National University. He believes predictability and transparency are essential to “regularizing” dialogues and trust-building.

No change in China’s foreign policy direction

Qin’s removal comes amid China’s efforts to restart its diplomatic activities after emerging from the three-year-long zero-COVID lockdown. In recent months, Xi has held bilateral meetings with dozens of world leaders and Beijing has organized several international meetings with allies in different parts of the world.

Chinese expert Wu believes the surprise shakeup in China’s diplomatic system won’t affect the direction of China’s foreign policy, as foreign ministers serve mainly to execute, not decide foreign policy in China.

“No matter who is the foreign minister, China will stick to the ‘head-of-state’ diplomacy in the near future, and its priority will be the APEC Summit held in the U.S. at the end of 2023,” he told VOA.

Even though China’s foreign policy direction will remain unchanged, Wu thinks there will be less “personal style” once Wang assumes the role of foreign minister.

“Wang will likely have to modify his tough diplomatic style and adopt a more moderate approach because that’s what China needs when dealing with the wide range of diplomatic challenges it faces,” he said.