SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Bannu Division: Rising Insecurity
On July 15, 2024, at least 12 terrorists and eight Security Force (SF) personnel were killed in a terrorist attack on Bannu Cantonment in the Bannu District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Initially, two suicide bombers blew themselves up at the entry gate, facilitating another 10 terrorists to enter the Cantonment. The SFs retaliated and clashes erupted. On July 16, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) claimed that the 10 terrorists were killed during the operation, in which eight SF personnel also lost their lives. However, social media sources claimed that an Army helicopter was shot down by the terrorists, while 17 soldiers, including two Majors and one Captain, were killed, and another 54 persons sustained injuries in the attack. Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad, a faction of the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), took responsibility for the attack.
On July 11, 2024, two Frontier Corps (FC) personnel, on holiday in their hometown of Janikhel in Bannu District, were shot dead by unidentified terrorists.
On July 10, 2024, four family members, including an off-duty Police officer, were killed and a minor was injured, when unidentified terrorists opened fire on their vehicle near Kurram Bridge on the Indus Highway within the jurisdiction of the Dadiwala Police Station in Lakki Marwat District.
On July 9, 2024, two terrorists and one Army Captain were killed, while three other soldiers sustained injuries, during an exchange of fire with terrorists in North Waziristan District. The Hafiz Gul Bahadur-backed Jaishul Umeri Istishadi Kandak claimed responsibility for the attack.
The Bannu Division in KP comprises three Districts: Bannu, Lakki Marwat and North Waziristan.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Bannu Division has recorded at least 234 terrorism-related fatalities (38 civilians, 70 SF personnel, 122 terrorists and four Not Specified) in 2024, thus far (data till July 28, 2024). In 2023, during the corresponding period, there were 134 terrorism-related fatalities, including eight civilians, 44 SF personnel and 82 terrorists. There was a total of 272 fatalities through 2023, including 48 civilians, 84 SF personnel, and 140 terrorists.
The Bannu Division has accounted for a total of 2,804 fatalities (432 civilians, 749 SF personnel, 1,457 terrorists, 166 Not Specified) since March 6, 2000, when SATP commenced compiling data on conflicts in Pakistan. These fatalities were recorded in 738 incidents of killing.
The district-wise distribution saw 1,701 fatalities in the North Waziristan District (107 civilians, 447 SF personnel, 991 terrorists, 156 Not Specified); 743 in the Bannu District (346 terrorists, 179 civilians, 209 SF personnel and nine Not Specified); and 362 in the Lakki Marwat District (148 civilians, 93 SF personnel, 102 terrorists and one Not Specified). [North Waziristan was an Agency of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) till May 28, 2018, when FATA was merged with KP.]
With a population of more than 1.17 million, Bannu is geo-strategically located at the Transport Hub of KP province. It is close to the western China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) route that runs through KP province from the Port city of Karachi to Afghanistan. Due to its geographical location and proximity to Afghanistan, Bannu was once a British military base, used for action against Afghan border tribes. Bannu has borders with the east of the Khost Province of Afghanistan, and lies 35 kilometres east of North and South Waziristan, 127 kilometres south of Kohat and 143 kilometres north of Dera Ismail Khan. The neighbouring Districts of Kohat and Karak have proven reserves of oil and gas –– which means any transport of these hydrocarbons would have to pass through and be facilitated by Bannu District.
Due to its closeness to North Waziristan, a large number of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) migrated to Bannu after the start of the anti-terrorist Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Sword of Prophet) on June 15, 2014. About one million people fled North Waziristan and reached different parts of the KP province in the wake of the Operation, with about 0.8 million resettled in Bannu, in rented houses and in tented villages. With the influx of such a large number of people, the population of Bannu almost doubled, which has adversely affected the whole District. IDPs in the area are compelled to live in a state of deprivation, which had been exploited by extremist elements.
With the deteriorating law and situation in the region, thousands of people in Bannu gathered on July 18, 2024, to demand security and peace in their areas. Over 10,000 people waving white flags and calling for peace gathered for the rally, with protestors declaring that they were demonstrating because, “despite 20 years of military operations, stability had not been achieved, therefore, military actions could never be a substitute for peace.” The protesters criticized the rising tensions between the Pakistan Army and TTP, which have disrupted their lives. The protests turned violent and, according to the protesters, firing by SFs led to the deaths of four demonstrators and injuries to several others. On July 19, 2024, KP Government spokesperson Barrister Mohammad Ali Saif disclosed that the protest rally was organised in Bannu, demanding peace in the area, and was attended by a large number of people, representing social organisations, traders, and political parties.
On July 21, 2024, the Bannu Peace Jirga (council of elders), comprising 43 Tribal elders, presented 16 demands to the Government. The demands included the rejection of “Operation Azm-e-Istehkam” in Bannu and the elimination of all Taliban bases, both of the ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ Taliban. Additionally, they demanded an end to raids on religious seminaries and homes in the name of search operations. The jirga also sought the presentation of all ‘missing’ individuals in local courts, or public disclosure of their records. Furthermore, they demand that the Government enhance resources for the Police and Counter Terrorism Department (CTD), hand over authority to conduct operations against the Taliban in the District, and provide medical treatment at military-run hospitals to injured Police personnel.
On July 21, 2024, prompted by the Bannu Peace Jirga protest and demands, KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur directed the Police to take strict action against armed individuals and their hideouts among surrendered Taliban, across the province. In a video message, he stated, “I ordered the Police to take stern action against them and their hideouts. Arrest them, and give them exemplary punishment.” Further, on July 24, 2024, Police raided three centres of ‘armed unofficial men’ (a euphemism for the Taliban who had surrendered to the state) in Bannu District, and arrested at least 17 members of armed militias. An unnamed senior Police officer disclosed that the location of these armed militias were pointed out by the Jirga in Bannu. Twelve men were arrested from the Maliar Markaz (Centre) in Muslimabad; and five from the Maulvi Ishaq Group at Bilal Markaz. The Jalil Group Markaz was found empty.
On July 25, in consultation with all stakeholders, the KP Apex Committee approved all demands of the Bannu Peace Committee. The Apex Committee decided civilian security forces, including the Police CTD, would lead the operation against militants in the province.
While addressing the gathering of the Bannu Peace Committee at Paredi Gate Chowk in Bannu on July 26, 2024, Chief Minister Gandapur briefed the people on the details of the Apex Committee meeting, announcing that he would not allow military operations in the province. He added that people of the province bore the brunt of the “wrong decisions” made in the past and noted, “As a chief minister, I announce that we will not allow any operation in this province. We will not shy away from shedding our blood for our country, but will make our decisions on our own”.
Reacting to the KP CM’s assertion that he would not allow any operation, the Federal Information Minister Attaullah Tarar asked Gandapur to tell the nation about his plan to eliminate terrorism in the province. Tarar added that the Chief Minister had to make such statements because he was answerable “to a man [Imran Khan] imprisoned in the Adiala Jail.”
The political tussle between the Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N) Federal Government and the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in the Province, over counter-terrorism operations has been brought out into the open with these statements.
Earlier, on June 29, 2024, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif questioned the KP Government for its failure to establish a separate CTD, despite receiving PKR 590 billion over the past 14 years for this purpose. Responding to a point of order raised by the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) lawmaker Asad Qaiser, the Prime Minister highlighted that, under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, an additional one percent share was allocated for KP province to augment its efforts against terrorism. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif added that the people of KP had been the frontline soldiers against terrorism, a fact that would always be remembered. He asserted that the additional one percent share for KP in NFC was still intact, and no other province, including Balochistan, received such funds, nor did they object to this allocation to KP, despite the immense sacrifices by their own law enforcement agencies and people against terrorism.
While, the political parties in power in the respective Federal and provincial government fight along party lines on counter-terrorism policy and responses, the terrorists are acting with increasing impunity, making the lives of the common people of the province immeasurably difficult.
Games of Instability
On July 21, 2024, Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli won a vote of confidence in the Lower House [House of Representatives (HoR)] of Nepal’s Parliament with 188 in favour, out of a total of 263 members present in the House, and 74 voting against the motion. Dev Raj Ghimire, Speaker of the Federal Parliament, abstained from voting. Twelve lawmakers were not present in the Parliament during the voting.
Earlier, on July 15, 2014, Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal – United Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), had been sworn in as Prime Minister and was asked to prove majority within a month.
Oli had replaced CPN-Maoist Centre chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, who had lost the vote of confidence in the HoR on July 12, 2024. The Dahal government fell as its main alliance partner, Oli’s CPN-UML, announced the withdrawal of its support on July 3, 2024, following successful negotiations with the Nepali Congress (NC). Padam Giri, minister for law, justice, and parliamentary affairs, echoing the sentiments of the CPN-UML, declaring, “We have decided to withdraw our support to pave the way for political stability through a national consensus government.” Reports indicate that the withdrawal of support occurred after the political deal was made with the NC, possibly late in the night of July 1, 2024.
It is pertinent to recall here that on November 20, 2022, elections for 165 seats of the HoR were held under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system, in a single phase. In accordance with the constitutional arrangement, another 110 seats are allocated under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. There are a total of 275 seats in the HoR. According to the final results submitted by the Election Commission to President Bidya Devi Bhandari, the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba-led NC emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats (57 FPTP + 32 PR), followed by the Oli-led CPN-UML, 78 seats (44 FPTP + 34 PR); Prachanda-led CPN-Moist Centre, 32 seats (18 FPTP + 14 PR); RSP, 20 seats (7 FPTP + 13 PR); RPP, 14 seats (7 FPTP + 7 PR); Janata Samajbadi Party, Nepal (JSP-N), 12 seats (7 FPTP + 5 PR); Madhav Kumar Nepal-led Communist Party of Nepal – Unified Socialist (CPN-Unified Socialist), 10 FPTP seats; Janamat Party, six FPTP seats, Loktantrik Samajwadi Party-Nepal (LSP-N), four FPTP seats; Nagarik Unmukti Party, three FPTP seats; and Rashtriya Janmorcha and Nepal Mazdoor Kisan Party, one FPTP seat each. Independents secured five seats.
The then five party Joint Ruling Alliance (JRA) – NC, CPN-Moist Centre, CPN- Unified Socialist, LSP-N and Rashtriya Janmorcha – had contested the elections together. The then main opposition party, the CPN-UML had RPP and JSP-N as alliance partners. Though no single party or alliance emerged a clear-cut winner, the JRA could have formed the government, with the help of Independents, as the alliance was in striking distance, with 136 seats, just two short of the 138 seats required. However, the tussle between Prachanda and Deuba over the issue of who would lead the new government intensified. Reports indicate that, while a tacit understanding was reached between the two leaders to lead the government on a rotational basis, the NC in the morning of December 25, 2022, rejected Prachanda’s demand to be Prime Minister in the first half of the term. Later in the day, Prachanda went to meet his friend-turned-rival-turned-friend, another Maoist veteran, Oli, and brokered a deal to form a new government on rotational basis, with Prachanda becoming the PM first. Prachanda then exited the JRA. On the same day, along with Oli and other new alliance partners, Prachanda went to President Bidya Devi Bhandari, to stake his claim, and was appointed Prime Minister, taking the oath on December 26, 2022, and later securing the vote of confidence on January 10, 2023, with 268 votes from the 275-member HoR. Interestingly, this made Prachanda the first Prime Minister to receive a 99 per cent endorsement.
Within a span of three months, two parties in the seven-party alliance – RPP and CPN-UML – withdrew support from the government following Prachanda’s decision to support NC candidate Ramchandra Paudel in the presidential election, and Prachanda was forced to prove his majority on March 20, 2023. However, Prachanda secured 172 votes with eleven political parties including NC, CPN-Maoist Centre, RSP, CPN–Unified Socialist, JSP-N, LSP, NUP, and the Janamat Party, among others, voting in his favour.
Just under a year later, on March 13, 2024, Prachanda was again forced to a face vote of confidence after the NC withdrew support to the then ruling coalition, on March 4, 2024. Interestingly, Prachanda had won the third vote of confidence and had received 157 votes in his favour, receiving support from 75 lawmakers from the CPN-UML, 32 from the CPN-Maoist Centre, 21 from the RSP, 12 from the JSP-N, 10 from the CPN-Unified Socialist, four from the NUP, and independent lawmakers Amaresh Kumar Singh and Yogendra Mandal.
Again, on May 20, 2024, Prachanda won a vote of confidence in Parliament for the fourth time amidst sloganeering by the main opposition NC, which abstained from the vote. Prachanda received 157 votes. The vote was necessitated as the coalition partner, JSP-N, withdrew its support to the Prachanda-led government on May 13, 2024.
Thus, between December 26, 2022, when he became the Prime Minister, and July 12, 2024, Prachanda was forced to prove his majority on at least five occasions. Though he succeeded in winning the vote of confidence on four of these, garnering the support of one or other major party, the NC or the CPN-UML, his political maneuvering came to an end on July 12, 2014.
Meanwhile, a seven-point agreement has been signed between the NC and the CPN-UML, that has led the formation of the new government:
National consensus government: A government will be formed under Article 76(2) of the Constitution, involving other political parties to ensure political stability, control corruption, promote good governance, and boost national development.
Constitutional review and amendments: The new government will assess the Constitution’s performance, address its weaknesses, and make necessary amendments for political stability.
Economic revival: Efforts will focus on revitalizing the economy by fostering a conducive business environment, stimulating investment, and creating jobs within Nepal.
Leadership transition: K. P. Sharma Oli will lead the government for the first two years, followed by Sher Bahadur Deuba, until the general elections in December 2027.
Governance framework: The government will operate based on a common program to protect national interests, curb corruption, and ensure good governance.
Equal participation: Major political parties will have equal roles in the government, with other parties included as well.
Provincial and local development: The government will accelerate development at the provincial and local levels, aligning with public sentiment and the consensus agreement.
Political uncertainties have been a roller-coaster phenomenon since Nepal became free of insurgency and terrorism following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement on November 21, 2006.
Despite the long and unending political uncertainties, Nepal has largely remained free of armed violence. As of now, the country has no active insurgent group. The last of active armed group, the Netra Bikram Chand-led Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-Maoist-Chand) – which was responsible for the last terrorism-linked fatality registered in the country reached a three-point agreement with the Government on March 4, 2021. On December 8, 2020, cadres of the group shot dead a teacher, Rajendra Shrestha, in the Miklajung Rural Municipality of Morang District in Province No. 1.
Insurgency in the country is certainly a thing of past, and there is little chance of a resurrection of armed conflict in the foreseeable future. However, political stability and the games of friction within the political classes, remain an ongoing reality, demonstrating the immaturity of the political leaders in their scramble for power. Absent a greater measure of responsibility and trust in the political classes, strengthening governance and addressing prevailing misrepresentations to establish a peaceful democratic progression for the betterment of the country, will remain beyond the reach of the people of Nepal.