The Bangladesh Coup: The Security Dilemma For India And The Indo-Pacific – Analysis
Bangladesh’s democratic process has been disrupted by military coups since 1975 and instability has marked its political landscape. After the restoration of democracy in 1991, parliamentary form was reinstated with Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina alternatively holding power. However, since 2009 it was Sheikh Hasina who controlled power and registered mammoth progress in economic growth. But there has been a consistent pressure from orthodox Muslim schools and the military on government resulting in the current military coup. It has tremendous security implications for India and the Indo-pacific that forms the prime thread in the current article.
Introduction
Bangladesh’s democratic process has faced numerous challenges since its independence in 1971, including autocracy and military interventions. The country’s democratic process was initially influenced by Indian democratic tradition but was disrupted by military coups since1975 and subsequent political instability. After the restoration of democracy in 1991, parliamentary democracy was reinstated, with Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina holding power.
Despite progress in economic growth and social measures, Bangladesh’s democratic system remains under pressure from orthodox Muslim schools and the military (Thakur, 2007). Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year tenure has significantly influenced the country’s democratic course, fostering strong economic growth and political stability. However, the political influence of the opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has decreased due to legal disputes, leadership turmoil, and limitations on political engagements. This has led to a ‘single party dominance system’ since 2009, leading to more centralization of power and autocratic rule by the ruling Awami League. Discontent among the BNP and Jamat-e-Islami of Bangladesh has been simmering, with the reservation of seats for freedom fighters serving as a vent for protests.
Military coup 2024 and the decline of democracy
On August 5, 2024, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped down amid widespread demonstrations and a military takeover in Bangladesh. Over 560 fatalities occurred, with protesters targeting Awami League (AL) leaders and the Hindu minority. The Bangladesh Army took control and declared an interim government, calling on demonstrators to stop violence. Hasina and her sister escaped to Ghaziabad, India. The military rule in Bangladesh could have multifaceted impacts on Indian security due to geographical, historical, and socio-political ties.
Providing asylum to Hasina could also be a contentious issue. The new head of the interim government Mohammed Yunus will remain a duckling under the military junta. Former BNP functionary Gayeshwar Roy warned India that cooperation with the enemy would be difficult if they helped the enemy. The military takeover has implications for India and the world. The presence of the interim government under military ensures the failure of democracy and Bangladesh’s return back to democracy is still vague.
Tension in diplomatic zones
While a political vacuum arises in the absence of Sheikh Hasina’s twenty years long rule the regional players like Pakistan and China, the arch rivals of India, may take it as an opportunity to entrench themselves and control the South Asian geostrategic space. India has traditionally supported democratic governance in its neighbourhood, and a shift to military rule could necessitate a recalibration of diplomatic and strategic policies.
Bilateral cooperation on various fronts, including counter-terrorism, trade, and water-sharing agreements, might be adversely affected. The lack of a stable and democratically elected government could complicate negotiations and enforcement of existing agreements. Military rule has its own limitations and has mostly fallen to anti-India forces in South Asia.
Trade disruptions
Bangladesh has significant importance as a trading partner for India. Over the last 5 years, India’s exports to Bangladesh have grown consistently at an average annual rate of 14%, reaching $7.17 billion in 2017 and $13.8 billion in 2022. In the year 2022, Bangladesh’s exports to India amounted to a total value of $2 billion.
The imposition of military authority may result in economic sanctions or trade interruptions, which might have an impact on economic ties. This might potentially have a cascading impact on the economy of border states and the broader dynamics of regional commerce. The political uncertainty in Bangladesh poses a potential threat to Indian investments in the country. Indian enterprises operating in Bangladesh would be affected by this, perhaps resulting in economic losses. In the future, Bangladesh’s economy, which has seen significant growth in recent decades, may potentially decline.
The dual offensive and the targeted killings
The political transition in Bangladesh has resulted in sectarian violence specifically aimed at minority groups, notably Hindus and political figures (Paul & Dass, 2024). A total of 29 leaders from the All India Muslim League (AL) have been assassinated, suggesting that the demonstrators consist of members from the BNP and those who oppose India and the AL. Khalida Zia, the head of the BNP, who had been placed under house arrest and was facing allegations of corruption, has been freed. The assassination of AL leaders may perhaps be a retaliatory action carried out by BNP members, who have consistently maintained stronger affiliations with Jamat-e-Islami. Jamat-e-Islami has expressed strong disapproval of the Awami League’s establishment of the War Crimes Tribunal in 2008, which was in line with their promise made before the election. The Jamat people have charged the AL’s push for justice against the sacrifices of the independence movement fighters associated with it.
There has begun a counter charge process of trapping Sheikh Hasina. Sheikh Hasina is now facing 33 cases against her, including 27 for murder, four for crimes against humanity and genocide, and one for abduction. (The Hindu, August 21, 2024). The new government is demanding her extradition back. Humayun Kabir, president of Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI), “I think we should not rely on a particular individual or party, it is best to keep good relations with all stakeholders. Bangladesh and India are close neighbours and will have to live side by side peacefully. India should keep a relationship as a neighbour, irrespective of the government.” Mohammed Younus, the head of new Interim Government held that ‘Delhi should understand what people of Bangladesh want’.
The Hindu minority is specifically targeted, with intentional attacks on Hindu dwellings and places of worship, resulting in some persons seeking shelter. The ramifications of this violence may have enormous implications across India, especially in areas with substantial Muslim populations. The protesters have specifically targeted the Hindu people, their houses, and temples, indicating a possible connection between anti-Hindu Islamist organisations and the demonstrators. The issue of illegal immigration into India has led to political and social tensions, with the National Register of Citizens (NRC) exercise in Assam aimed at identifying undocumented immigrants. The presence of illegal migrants in strategically important areas is alarming, as Rohingya migrants have been found to have collusion with Kashmir militants. The Act provides relief to address security challenges and minority persecution. Despite being introduced in 1951 and 1976 by Indira Gandhi, the NRC has never progressed due to political reasons and lack of political will. Union Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar has appealed to everyone to read the bill (Thakur, 2024).
Repercussions for the Indo-Pacific
Bangladesh has significant geostrategic importance due to its strategic position in South Asia, bordered by India, Myanmar, and the Bay of Bengal. It functions as a crucial maritime gateway to the Indian Ocean, playing a significant role in facilitating trade and energy routes (Thakur, 2023, p. 424). Additionally, it functions as a channel between South Asia and Southeast Asia, offering feasible routes for regional connectivity initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Bangladesh’s geographical location near crucial international maritime routes, along with its strategic partnerships with prominent nations like China and India, significantly amplifies its geopolitical importance in terms of regional security, trade, and economic integration. Furthermore, the country’s location on the Bay of Bengal, which is rich in natural resources, amplifies its strategic significance for South Asia and India.
For a considerable duration, Bangladesh’s ties with the US were strained as the US aimed to expand its geopolitical influence in Bangladesh, similar to its interests in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Expressing concern about the potential fragmentation of Bangladesh and the United States’ role in ongoing developments, Sheikh Hasina said that she is engaged in a multifaceted struggle, both domestically and internationally, against persistent plots aimed at establishing a new nation inside Bangladesh. “Similar to East Timor, they plan to establish a Christian nation by annexing territories in Bangladesh (specifically Chattogram) and Myanmar, with a stronghold in the Bay of Bengal,” as reported by the Economic Times in 2024. Hasina’s anxiety also suggests that she has under significant pressure from the United States to secure vital access to the Indian Ocean via Bangladesh. Hasina said that if she had let a certain nation to construct an air base in Bangladesh, she would not have encountered any difficulties, referring to the United States (Economic Times, 2024). The change in US policy also signifies that, considering the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean and escalating strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region, the US is placing more emphasis on the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific. In this context, Bangladesh assumes a crucial role as a significant connection.
After pulling out of Afghanistan, the United States has expanded its network of vital allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region. The US has a long-standing policy of promoting autocratic regimes against uncompromising democracies, and the current development in Bangladesh seems to be a continuation of this approach. Because Hasina refused to compromise with the US proposals, she was forced to bear the consequences. Fareed Zakaria discusses a similar incident surrounding then Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Annoyed by persistent American exhortation on democracy, Mubarak reportedly asked, “If I were to do what you ask, Islamic fundamentalists will take over Egypt. Is that what you want?” Interestingly, the 2010-12 Arab Spring claimed Mubarak as one of its first casualties, and the Muslim Brotherhood-backed Islamist leadership took his place. The Saudis, too, have often reminded Americans that if they pressed their government too hard, “the likely alternative to the regime is not Jeffersonian democracy by a Taliban-style theocracy” (Firstpost, 2024). Given the increasing geostrategic importance of the Indo-Pacific region for future maritime security equations and trade flows, which account for about 70 percent of global trade, the US has been enhancing its presence through various channels. It has entered into maritime security understandings with India, Japan, Australia, and the UK. The increased Chinese presence in the ocean also makes it urgent for the US to secure more geostatic bases in the region, and Bangladesh has fallen to these designs.
Conclusions
The Indian challenge is to control the new administration in Bangladesh and supporting the progress of democracy. Failure to do so might result in a decline in economic development and the resurgence of military oppression similar to that seen in the 1970s and 1980s. If the new administration does not address the minority suppression by the demonstrators in a forceful and fair manner, it might lead to an excessive degree of communal enmity that may become uncontrollable for both India and Bangladesh. India must recognise that amid the escalating competition between the United States and China in the Indian Ocean, Indian interests are secure when aligned with its neighbouring countries. It has to articulate its interest well while dealing with the newly emerging patterns of strategic engagements.
Notes & References
Economic Times (August 5, 2024). Western plot against Sheikh Hasina? What she revealed in May. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/western-plot-against-sheikh-hasina-what-she-revealed-in-may/articleshow/112294105.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
Firstpost (August 6, 2024). Bangladesh ‘coup’ seems straight out of CIA playbook: Why India should be more watchful and alert. https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/bangladesh-coup-seems-straight-out-of-cia-playbook-why-india-should-be-more-watchful-and-alert-13801515.htmln.
Hindustan Times (Aug 22, 2024). https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/delhi-should-understand-what-people-of-bangladesh-want-101724269341036.html
Paul, Ruma and Das, Krishna N. (August 8, 2024). Hindus in Bangladesh try to flee to India amid violence. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/hindus-bangladesh-try-flee-india-amid-violence-2024-08-08
Thakur, Harish K. (March 16, 2024). Why Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) is Essential for India. Modern Diplomacy. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/03/16/why-citizenship-amendment-act-caa-is-essential-for-india/
Thakur, Harish K. (2007). Indo-Bangladesh Relations: A Walk on Scissors. Asia Pacific Panorama, Vol.7, No.1, January.
Thakur, H. K. (2023).Contesting China in the Maldives: India’s foreign policy challenge. The Round Table, 112(4), 421–437.
The Hindu (August 21, 2024). https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/another-case-filed-against-former-pm-sheikh-hasina-her-aides-in-bangladesh/article68550438.ece