Taliban Regime Post-US Withdrawal: Legitimacy Is Being Recognized By Neighbours? – OpEd
In August 2021, the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces from Afghanistan precipitated the collapse of the previous Afghan government, resulting in the Taliban’s resurgence and subsequent control over Kabul. For nearly twenty years, the insurgents have actively been involved in military confrontations with the US and NATO forces.
Shortly after the withdrawal, thereafter, the Taliban announced the formation of a new government, which has yet to receive recognition from any foreign state or international organization. The cessation of development assistance, which previously accounted for 75% of the former government’s expenditures, had come to an end abruptly by Western donors. The cutoff has precipitated a profound humanitarian and economic crisis in Afghanistan, exacerbated by the abrupt disintegration of the war economy alongside various other contributing factors.
Since that time, the international community has pursued a strategy that balances selective engagement with the emerging regime alongside measures of isolation. Western nations have enacted a series of sanctions, asset freezes, and banking restrictions in response to the Taliban regime’s significant constraints on the rights of women and girls, reflecting a deep-seated concern for human rights and gender equality. While certain countries have engaged in discreet dialogues with the Taliban concerning security issues, they have concurrently allocated billions of dollars towards poverty alleviation and famine prevention efforts.
Through the establishment of trade agreements and the accreditation of Taliban ambassadors, neighbouring countries have adopted a more accommodative approach in their interactions with the newly formed government in Kabul. Although the systematic exclusion of women and girls from many facets of public life limits the benefits that half of the population receives from the positive changes, some aspects of Afghans’ lives have improved and others have deteriorated three years after Taliban rule was renewed.
Internal Perception of the Taliban Regime
The Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in 2021 after fighting against the foreign powers and the U.S.-backed Kabul government since 2001. Afghanistan’s economy has fallen apart under Taliban rule. Job losses number in the hundreds of thousands, and malnutrition rates have been rising. The women have not been allowed to work.
The Taliban regained control after the U.S.-backed government fell, threatening Afghans’ civil and political rights, with the UN documenting human rights violations. Taliban intimidates journalists, restricts press freedoms, cracks down on demonstrations, and reinstates the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice. Women face severe restrictions on secondary school, university teaching, and employment. Restricting women’s employment may cost Afghanistan’s GDP up to 5%, according to the UN Development Program. The Taliban’s takeover has stalled the improvements in living standards, leaving nearly all Afghans in poverty and causing the economy to shrink by up to 30% since then. Security has improved, but violence persists, especially with the Islamic State in Khorasan targeting civilians.
Some scholars have argued that many Afghans unequivocally abhor the Taliban’s governance. Their adversaries predominantly consist of numerous individuals from ethnic groups distinct from the Pashtun majority of the Taliban, as well as men and women who contest the Taliban’s limitations on women and girls, and those who prefer the freedoms and constitutional governance previously enjoyed over the opaque theocracy established by the new regime. The Emir’s decisions seem to have irritated certain Taliban members, especially younger officials who contend that their government is lagging in a modernizing society. The protests by opium farmers signify that the Taliban’s anti-drug campaign has resulted in a loss of support in certain provinces.
Nevertheless, a small number of individuals within the population are in favor of the Taliban. The extent of this sentiment is once again challenging to ascertain; however, a significant number of Afghans, particularly those residing in the rural south and east, regard the regime change as a triumph for their right to self-determination. This is due to the fact that their side emerged victorious in the war, and their political convictions now have a greater influence in the capital. Women who either support the Taliban or oppose the years-long violence perpetrated across much of the nation by the security forces of the previous administration and its foreign backers comprise this constituency, which is predominantly Pashtun. A group of Afghans perceives the regime as a mixed bag, particularly in comparison to the previous governing structures, and does not express either support or opposition. For example, after decades of conflict, certain individuals may be appreciative of the newfound security but desire that women and girls faced fewer challenges. In addition to their disapproval of the Taliban’s governance, numerous Afghans were also enraged by the corruption and oppression of previous regimes. The size of these constituencies has been particularly challenging to determine due to the severe flaws in Afghan polls.
No De Jure Diplomatic Recognition
The Taliban regime has not been recognized by most of the countries due to their concerns regarding its governance, violation of human rights, security, and non-compliance with international standards. The regime’s lack of inclusivity, violations of human rights, and affiliations with terrorist organizations have prompted concerns regarding international security. Its governance exacerbates the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and undermines its legitimacy. This is perceived by numerous nations as a method of exerting pressure on the Taliban.
The Taliban have governed Afghanistan as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan since 2021, when they overthrew the internationally recognized Islamic Republic of Afghanistan through force. The international community has widely condemned the takeover, and no nations have granted the new regime de jure diplomatic recognition, despite the fact that it ostensibly maintains relations with Afghanistan. The Taliban have been advocating for international recognition since assuming power. Some nations have declared that they will only recognize the Islamic Emirate if human rights are upheld there, while others have vowed never to do so.
However, certain countries have granted Taliban diplomats the status of chargé d’affaires, despite their refusal to acknowledge the Islamic Emirate. Despite being the first nation to formally name a new ambassador to the country since the takeover in September 2023 and officially recognize the Taliban’s envoy to China in January 2024, the PRC still does not formally recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan. The United Arab Emirates also received a Taliban-appointed diplomat as the new ambassador of Afghanistan in August 2024.
Neighbouring Countries’ Cautious Engagements with Taliban
Although most of the countries have not formally recognized the Taliban, on the contrary, the neighboring countries such as India, China, and Russia have been engaging with them due to practical considerations. Security imperatives such as regional stability and counterterrorism are significant imperatives due to concerns regarding cross-border extremist group activities. Examples of strategic interests that are also relevant include Pakistan’s ambition for power, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, India’s regional balance, and Russia’s security in Central Asia. Engagement is also necessary for economic reasons, such as resolving Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis and gaining access to its resources. These countries employ a realpolitik strategy to achieve stability and influence, while simultaneously exerting pressure on the Taliban to moderate its rule and adhere to international standards.
India has officially denied any consular appointments or recognition given to the Taliban government. However, recently it has conducted a diplomatic visit to Kabul, during which it met with former Afghan President Hamid Karzai and acting defense minister Mullah Mohammad Yaqoob. India’s recent visit to Afghanistan is indicative of its increasing diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan since the Taliban’s takeover in 2021.
Since 2022, India has pursued a more pragmatic strategy to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan and the region, despite the fact that it did not officially recognize the Taliban government. India is collaborating with Afghanistan in a variety of ways, including the establishment of a technical team at the embassy, the admission of more than 3000 students since 2021, and participation in the ‘Afghanistan Regional Cooperation Initiative’ meeting in Kabul in 2024. Geopolitical interests, regional stability, and secure investments are all significantly impacted by India’s engagement. The Zaranj-Delaram highway and the Afghan-India Friendship Dam are two critical infrastructure projects that India is supporting in Afghanistan. The latter offers an alternative route into landlocked Afghanistan by bypassing Pakistan and passing through Iran’s Chabahar port.
In India, the appointment of Ikramuddin Kamil as Acting Consul at the Mumbai consulate of Afghanistan is a pragmatic response to the requirements of Afghan nationals in India, however, the same does not constitute an endorsement of the Taliban regime. India ensures that consular services are maintained for the Afghan diaspora by prioritizing Kamil’s Afghan identity over his Taliban affiliation. India’s cautious selection of a familiar figure for this role is further mirrored by his Indian-educated background. The action underscores India’s changing strategy of restricted engagement with the Taliban, which prioritizes regional stability and operational requirements while simultaneously upholding its non-recognition stance in collaboration with the international community.
Moscow has announced its intention to normalize relations with the Taliban-led government of Afghanistan by removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations. The Taliban’s human rights violations, particularly those related to women’s rights, have been the subject of international concern. Despite these concerns, the removal is perceived as a humanitarian response to the crisis in Afghanistan, offering crucial assistance to alleviate criticism. Russia regards the Taliban as its most effective ally in addressing the threat posed by the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP), which it regards as a more immediate threat to regional stability than the Taliban itself. The normalization of Moscow’s relations with the Taliban government, which is still not recognized by any country in the world, would be facilitated by the removal of the Taliban from its list of terrorist organizations and the lifting of sanctions against the group. The Taliban’s transition to normalization is a component of Russia’s strategy to establish stronger partnerships with the primary adversaries of ISKP (Fazl-e-Haider, 2024 November 13).
The Taliban’s potential support for militants in Xinjiang was a primary concern for China, which expressed its willingness to engage with them after the U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. In June 2022, a catastrophic earthquake in southeastern Afghanistan prompted China to provide substantial humanitarian aid, including $7.5 million and supplies. The Taliban publicly acknowledged this action. Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC), a Chinese oil company, executed a substantial contract with the Taliban in January 2023. The contract, which was valued at $150 million for the initial year and $540 million by 2026, was intended to increase oil extraction and generate approximately 3,000 jobs. Furthermore, a Chinese mining company was in the process of negotiating the continuation of operations at a copper mine in Logar province.
A significant diplomatic move was made by China in September 2023 when it appointed Zhao Xing as its first ambassador to Afghanistan since the Taliban’s takeover. By December 2023, Bilal Karimi, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to China, presented his credentials to President Xi Jinping, thereby fortifying diplomatic relations. China maintains trade, investment, and aid discussions with the Taliban government, despite the fact that it has not formally recognized it. This policy is driven by the desire to prevent Uyghur separatists from utilizing Afghanistan as a base for activities against the Chinese state. China’s diplomatic and economic interactions suggest a strategic interest in maintaining influence in Afghanistan, despite the country’s ambiguous stance on recognizing the Taliban as of January 2024.
Conclusion
The international community has yet to recognize the Taliban’s rule in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal due to its human rights violations and affiliation with terrorism. But India, Russia, and China have engaged with the Taliban in a practical manner due to their concerns for regional stability, economic gain, and security. While Western countries remain isolated and subject to sanctions, regional powers leverage trade, economic agreements, and diplomatic relations to exert influence, despite their lack of official recognition. Afghanistan’s future international legitimacy will be contingent upon the Taliban’s capacity to address critical issues such as human rights and women’s rights, as well as the evolving geopolitical dynamics of the region.