Bangladesh At A Crossroads: Will Revolution Bring Democracy Or Renewed Despotism? – Analysis
Bangladesh is at a crossroads. In the summer of 2024, a student-led revolution unseated Sheikh Hasina, one of South Asia’s most entrenched leaders, marking a potential turning point in the nation’s tumultuous political history.
For years, Hasina’s rule epitomised the authoritarian drift of a country that had once aspired to democracy. Prompted by the July Revolution, her resignation offers a rare opportunity to chart a new course. Yet, the violence that erupted between supporters of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami in Gaibandha district in late December—a stark reminder of the volatile political environment—casts doubt on whether Bangladesh can escape its illiberal past.
At stake is the survival of democracy itself in a nation where political polarisation, corruption, and patronage have hollowed out democratic institutions. Bangladesh now faces the monumental challenge of rebuilding these institutions while navigating rivalries among entrenched political parties and a burgeoning student-led movement. Whether the country seizes this moment to transition into a genuine democracy or lapses into a new cycle of authoritarianism will depend on the willingness of its political actors to prioritise long-term reforms over short-term gains.
A Legacy of Illiberalism
Bangladesh’s modern political history is a cautionary tale of unrealised democratic potential. Since the restoration of democracy in 1990, the country has maintained the trappings of democracy—regular elections, vibrant political parties, and an engaged citizenry. Yet, these features have masked a system dominated by patronage, authoritarian tendencies, and systemic violence. Two dynastic parties have long monopolised the political arena: the Awami League (AL) and the BNP. These rivals have traded accusations for decades, often using state power to suppress dissent and consolidate control.
Sheikh Hasina’s tenure, beginning in 2009, represented the culmination of this trend. Under her leadership, the AL systematically dismantled institutional independence, politicised the judiciary, and eroded civil liberties. Opposition figures were harassed, imprisoned, or exiled while dissenting voices in civil society and the media were silenced. Elections, including the disputed 2014 and 2018 polls, became exercises in democratic theatre designed to legitimise her grip on power. Bangladesh, once a struggling democracy, slid into outright authoritarianism.
The July Revolution disrupted this trajectory. Sparked by protests against a controversial quota system for government jobs, the movement quickly grew into a nationwide uprising demanding democratic reform. The death of student activist Abu Sayed galvanised public outrage, forcing Hasina to resign and flee the country. Her departure has left a political vacuum—and an opportunity to reimagine Bangladesh’s future.
Competing Forces in the New Political Order
The interim government, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, is tasked with shepherding the nation toward stability and reform. However, its mandate is tenuous, caught between the demands of three powerful factions: the BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and a revolutionary student movement.
The BNP: A Fragile Comeback
The BNP, long relegated to opposition, sees the post-Hasina period as its moment of redemption. Public discontent with the AL’s authoritarian excesses has given the BNP a resurgence of popular support. The party’s leaders have called for immediate elections, confident of a decisive victory. Yet, the BNP’s record in governance is checkered. Its time in power was marred by allegations of corruption, mismanagement, and human rights abuses. Moreover, the recent acquittal of Tarique Rahman, son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, in a high-profile grenade attack case has sparked fresh controversy, highlighting the party’s struggles with transparency and accountability. To lead Bangladesh into a new era, the BNP must overcome its past and articulate a credible vision for reform. Failing to do so risks perpetuating the very system it claims to oppose.
Jamaat-e-Islami: Revival Amid Controversy
Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, has reemerged as a significant political force. Suppressed under Hasina’s regime, Jamaat leveraged its role in the July Revolution to regain a foothold in national politics. The party’s grassroots network and organisational discipline have proven assets in mobilising support. However, Jamaat remains a deeply polarising actor. Its historical alignment with Pakistan during the 1971 Liberation War continues to haunt its reputation. Critics accuse the party of exploiting the current political transition to advance an Islamist agenda. For Jamaat, redefining its identity and broadening its appeal will be crucial to surviving and thriving in the new political landscape.
Revolutionary Students: The New Vanguard
Perhaps the most intriguing development is the rise of a student-led movement, which has transitioned from protest to political force. Figures like Nahid Islam, a charismatic student leader, have become symbols of a new generation demanding meritocracy, transparency, and an end to entrenched nepotism. Their movement has begun forming a political platform that seeks to disrupt the BNP-AL duopoly. Yet, the students face formidable challenges. Internal divisions, a lack of political experience, and the entrenched nature of Bangladesh’s political system pose significant hurdles. Established parties have already begun co-opting and undermining their efforts, casting doubt on whether the movement can sustain its momentum.
The Persistent Threat of Polarization
Political polarisation remains one of the greatest obstacles to Bangladesh’s democratic aspirations. Rivalries among the BNP, Jamaat, and the student movement have already devolved into mutual recriminations. The BNP accuses Jamaat of opportunism and complicity in past atrocities. Jamaat, in turn, criticises the BNP for corruption.
Meanwhile, student leaders blame both parties for obstructing reform and undermining the interim government. This cycle of blame and hostility threatens to derail the fragile progress made since Hasina’s resignation. Without a commitment to dialogue and compromise, the risk of renewed violence looms large.
A Blueprint for Reform
Breaking free from this cycle requires systemic change. Bangladesh’s entrenched political culture cannot be dismantled overnight, but targeted reforms can lay the foundation for a more inclusive and democratic future.
Depoliticising Institutions: Restoring meritocracy in public appointments, from the judiciary to educational institutions, is essential for rebuilding public trust.
Strengthening Electoral Processes: An independent election commission and robust safeguards against voter intimidation are crucial to ensuring free and fair elections.
Decentralizing Power: Empowering local governments would dilute the concentration of authority in Dhaka and promote grassroots participation.
Transitional Justice: Addressing past atrocities transparently can help heal national divisions and foster reconciliation.
Youth Participation: Providing platforms for young leaders to engage in governance can inject fresh perspectives into policymaking.
The international community has a vested interest in Bangladesh’s transition. Support for electoral reform, technical assistance, and pressure to uphold democratic norms can bolster the interim government’s efforts. However, foreign actors must tread carefully to avoid inflaming nationalist sentiments or being perceived as meddling in domestic affairs.
A Moment of Reckoning
Bangladesh’s political future hangs in the balance. The fall of Sheikh Hasina has created a rare opening for reform, but rivalry and polarisation threaten to squander this opportunity. Without systemic change, the country risks repeating its history of illiberal democracy and authoritarianism. This is a moment of reckoning for Bangladesh. The choices made in the coming months will determine whether the nation emerges as a vibrant democracy or remains ensnared by its troubled past. The path forward is fraught with challenges but also ripe with possibility. For Bangladesh, the stakes could not be higher.