IT-Enabled Wars Can Escalate To Dangerous Levels: Fortunes Guide A Ceasefire Between India And Pakistan – OpEd
Before India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire mediated by the US, the two countries were in a phase of an undeclared war which could chart an uncertain and dangerous course dictated by hyper-nationalism where rationalism and self-reflection would have given way to simplified perspectives about the other. The other could be perceived as a source of all problems even while the issues are often complex and layered. Each party to the war could consider its actions right while the other might see it provocative.
Nationalism built on the premises of retribution can be very dangerous where disinformation and absence of alternative opinions can be ignored. Following the Pahalgam massacre, India vowed to take on and hit hard the terrorists and their backers, it did not anyways indicate or uttered statements that tantamount to waging a war against Pakistan. In this vein, Operation Sindoor was a proportionate response which was strategically engineered to give a massive blow to the militants engaged in cross-border terrorism and their infrastructure.
It is already known how disinformation campaigns played a vital role in mobilizing war-weary people in Russia and fanning an upsurge in religious nationalism had a prominent role in Israel’s prolonged campaign against Hamas including Palestinians. Some foreign policy scholars and strategists believed that India could adopt an Israeli model of war against terrorism that was formed in Gaza through ground and ariel response to the initial attacks of Hamas on October 7, 2023. India chose to keep away from such information campaigns and provocative suggestions based on emotions, anger and retribution.
Provocations to Adopt Unsuitable Models
Israeli-style operations are not only cost prohibitive, they were non-discriminatory in nature. The operations by their very massive nature and target which was indistinct from civilians and civilian locations could/did not distinguish between Hamas and ordinary Palestinians. India could ill-afford to adopt a model where the possibilities of loss of civilians would be very high. A model tilted towards religious acrimony and hatred spewed by Israeli right-wing part of the establishment could not be a framework to be emulated by India’s right-wing parties clearly defying the country’s strong secular pedestals.
However, a war with longer duration could be tainted by religious propaganda by both countries given their religious slants. Israeli-self never accepted the Palestinian-other and their sovereign rights to statehood which earned international legitimacy with the acceptance of the US and like-minded European powers. Territorial incursions and settlements promoted by Israel were tacitly approved by these powers. However, India’s full-scale intervention in a bid to wage an all-out war against terrorism into Pakistan will be considered flagrant violations of the state’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Further, the US and many European countries lent unflinching support to the Israeli model of military operations in terms of aid and arms, India’s operation had to be a cautious move to avoid civilian casualties so as to earn international legitimacy for its actions while inflicting damage to terrorist infrastructure and to be able to send a message to Pakistan that any terrorist attacks on Indian soil would be retaliated with a bigger blow. As the statistics stand, between 2019 and 2023, the US accounted for over two-thirds of all arms sold to Israel from abroad, while Germany was the second biggest supplier at 30%, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
More crucially, the exports increased tenfold since October 7, 2023 from 32.3 million euros ($35m) to 326.5 million euros ($354m) with the majority of licences granted after October 7. The UN’s Human Rights Office condemned the high number of civilians killed in the war in Gaza, saying its analysis shows close to 70% of verified victims over a six-month period were women and children. Since 7 October 2023, more than 45,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to Gaza’s health ministry. The religious, cultural and security embeddedness shared between Israel, the US and Western Europe is far deeper than the one between India and the West. India’s strategic culture is more informed by the creed of non-violence and principle of strategic-restraint that could not morally and strategically endure the loss of so many civilians until the other warring party go for unbridled escalations.
False Narratives
Information and Technology plays a pivotal role in shaping and feeding people’s perceptions on a war in directions removed from the realities on battlefield. More than arms and ammunition, management of information is of crucial significance. In the wars between Russia and Ukraine on the one hand, Israel and Hamas on the other, tools such as deception, image manipulation, and false narratives were used by the actors to sway people’s perceptions against the enemy by demonizing it so that people would stake everything to sustain the wars and more volunteers and civilians could be mobilized for the sake of the wars. Apart from nationalist narratives from Indian media covered during the war, Pakistan and powers with interests in the conflicts tried to provide distorted information on the losses incurred by both parties to the war.
For instance, Chinese media with vested interest in the war ran stories that the Chinese-origin JF-17 shot down S-400, one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world, or the Rafales were shot down by the Chinese-origin J-10C. The state-run Turkish media ran the story that Pakistan had shot down Indian Rafale fighter jets. Pakistani military sources said its forces had shot down 77 drones. The US media outlet CNN quoted Pakistani defense sources as claiming that they have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafale jets, one MiG-29, and one Su-30MKI fighter jet.
When the ground realities were difficult to be detected, confirmed and communicated in the absence of credible communication channels, the reports were palpably designed by the powers to advance their own market interests in the shadows of the war. For instance, by raising questions over the credibility of Russian and French made fighter jets and missiles, they sought to promote and expand the markets for their own defence exports including jets and weapons. It was seen how Turkish-made Asisguard Songar drones were being used by Pakistan.
Perhaps, in a bid to promote their own interests, Turkey and Azerbaijan lent public support to Pakistan following ‘Operation Sindoor’ launched by India whereas many states including the US initially appeared to be indifferent to the war. Unlike the wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas, information surrounding this undeclared war was not distorted beyond these limits. With the increasing span of the war, there was every possibility that religious and cultural disinformation, misinformation and false narratives could have propelled further military escalations and miscalculations between the two nuclear powers.
Drone Warfare
Unlike the previous wars between the two powers, India and Pakistan this time were engaged in a drone warfare – the first drone war in the South Asia region. It foregrounded the fact that forces which master drone warfare would dominate the battlefield. Unlike the conventional warfare, drones aim at hitting enemy targets far across the border bypassing the standing military forces. It was witnessed in the undeclared war how drones bought at much cheaper prices could precisely identify and target specific enemy targets including defence facilities and terrorist infrastructure with advanced precision-guided munitions.
However, unlike the conventional wars, use of drones and unmanned short range missiles raise the possibilities of destruction of civilian lives and infrastructure. Significant destruction of civilian infrastructure and loss of civilian lives could elevate the war to a dangerous level. While in this short-term war, many sites were chosen for drone attacks, damage to the civilian infrastructure and lives were not significant enough to warrant massive strike by any of the parties. The US could possibly mediate a ceasefire between the two powers because none of the parties to the war endured significant losses of civilian infrastructure and lives. Any such losses imposed on the enemy would undercut the legitimacy of the war and shrink the support-base at the domestic and international level.
The US President Donald Trump has not been successful in putting brakes on the prolonged wars continuing between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas primarily because religious, cultural and ideological misinformation and disinformation as well as high losses of civilian infrastructure and lives have hardened these wars making them immune from any simple path of negotiation.