Operation Sindoor And India’s Shift To Assertive Deterrence – Analysis

On May 10, India and Pakistan agreed to a US-mediated ceasefire following the Pahalgam terror attack in India and consequent military escalation from both sides. India’s Operation Sindoor, a retaliatory measure against cross-border terror groups following the terror attack, indicates the swiftly altered nature of New Delhi’s response: a nuanced, calibrated, and multi-dimensional punitive response to the state-sponsored terrorism. The biggest success of the Operation was its shift from focusing on Kashmir to the terrorism issue.

For India, which has long endured the scourge of cross-border terrorism, this shift is not optional—it is imperative. The launch of Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in India’s evolving deterrence posture. Rather than a one-off retaliatory action, the operation exemplifies a broader doctrinal shift, termed the Weaponisation of Uncertainty.

Catalyst: The Pahalgam Massacre

Operation Sindoor was prompted by the gruesome terrorist attack in Pahalgam, in which 26 Indian tourists, targeted for being non-Muslims, were brutally killed. More than a mere provocation, the attack represented a deliberate escalation challenging India’s threshold for strategic patience. India’s calibrated yet forceful response through Operation Sindoor underscored a doctrine no longer bound by traditional restraint.

Operation Sindoor unfolded as a limited but potent precision strike. Eschewing broader military confrontation, India opted for standoff precision attacks on carefully selected terrorist infrastructure located not just in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), but deep within Pakistani territory. This geographic extension—reaching Bahawalpur and Muridke—home to Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) respectively, signals a critical strategic recalibration: terrorist sanctuaries will be neutralised irrespective of their location.

India’s choice of non-military and non-civilian targets was both symbolic and strategic. It underscored a calibrated escalation model, one that imposes cost on terrorists without triggering a full-blown war.

Showcasing Technological Superiority

The operation highlighted India’s growing reliance on networked warfare and precision munitions. Key weapons systems included:

SCALP (Storm Shadow): Long-range air-launched cruise missile, ideal for deep penetration.
HAMMER: Modular air-to-ground munition suited for varied terrain and all-weather use.
Harop Loitering Munitions: Precision “kamikaze drones” capable of neutralising time-sensitive targets.

These tools enabled the targeting of high-value wanted terrorists such as Abdul Rauf Azhar, implicated in the 1999 IC-814 hijacking and the murder of journalist Daniel Pearl. Also killed were ten close relatives of JeM leader Masood Azhar, reinforcing India’s intent to dismantle terror ecosystems at the leadership level. The remarkable capability of S-400 defence system in thwarting Pakistani missiles cannot be overstated here.

Strategic Restraint, Not Strategic Timidity

Despite its ferocity, Operation Sindoor was consciously non-escalatory. This restraint reflects a shift from tactical reactivity to punitive deterrence – a doctrine that not only inflicts immediate costs but also raises the long-term risk calculus for Pakistan’s deep state.

Importantly, the Indian response occurred amid evidence that Pakistani security officials had attended funerals of slain militants, further blurring the line between state and non-state actors. According to reports, around hundred terrorists were killed in India’s operation. India’s action is thus designed to pressure Islamabad’s military-intelligence complex by disrupting its internal legitimacy and monopoly over national security narratives.

Nuclear Bluff and the New Normal

One of the most profound shifts lies in India’s willingness to call out Pakistan’s nuclear posturing. By avoiding the Line of Control (LoC) and employing standoff weapons, India effectively bypassed traditional triggers while delivering strategic messaging. This evolution in doctrine signals the waning utility of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent as a shield for low-intensity warfare.

The broader implication is clear: deterrence in the Indian Subcontinent is no longer static. The emergence of electronic warfare, loitering munitions, and psychological operations (psy-ops) transforms the nature of conflict into one favouring pre-emptive, high-tech engagements, blurring the conventional boundaries of war and diplomacy.

Strategic Communication and Global Positioning

India’s public messaging strategy, surrounding Operation Sindoor was notably assertive. In a complete contrast with their Pakistani counterparts, statements from the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of External Affairs emphasized calibration, legitimacy, and proportionality, reinforcing India’s image as a responsible yet assertive regional power.

International responses, particularly from the US, Russia, France, and Israel, largely echoed India’s position, affirming its right to self-defence under international law. Conversely, Pakistan’s calls for international investigation were viewed as deflection tactics amid its own inaction on earlier cases like the Pathankot attack, the Tahawwur Rana extradition case, and the 2008 Mumbai attacks.

Retaliation and the Layered Defence Shield

In retaliation, Pakistan launched artillery shelling on May 8, targeting civilian areas across 15 Indian towns. However, India’s Integrated Air Defence System (IADS) proved effective in neutralizing much of the offensive, highlighting a robust shield that complements its sword.

Despite 15 civilian casualties in Poonch, India refrained from a kinetic escalation, reiterating it’s posture of “controlled dominance”: firm enough to punish, restrained enough to avoid entrapment.

Role of the US as a peacemaker

The strategic fallout of Operation Sindoor includes the May 10 full and immediate ceasefire decision, mutually agreed by India and Pakistan, brokered quietly with behind-the-scenes facilitation by the US and the United Arab Emirates. This understanding led both sides to reaffirm the 2023 ceasefire across the Line of Control (LoC), offering a rare moment of stability after sharp escalation in tensions. Washington’s role was critical—not merely as a neutral arbiter but as a power balancing its Indo-Pacific objectives with its residual interests in South Asia.

That said, one must appreciate the direct and pro-active role played by the Trump administration prompted India and Pakistan to agree to a ceasefire agreement howsoever fragile it may be.

Geopolitical Undercurrents: China and the Strategic Triangle

An analytical dimension that cannot be ignored is China’s tactical role. Reports of terrorists using Chinese-origin satellite communication devices suggest technological facilitation, if not direct sponsorship. With Pakistan increasingly seen as a client state of China, regional geopolitics now operates in a triangular framework—India–Pakistan–China.

Moreover, Pakistan’s declining relevance post-U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, coupled with India’s enhanced ties with Gulf nations, further isolates Islamabad. Efforts to mobilize support via pan-Islamic rhetoric now fall flat in a landscape shaped more by strategic interests than religious identity.

Doctrinal Shift: From Reactive to Offensive Deterrence

Operation Sindoor marks a decisive turn in India’s national security doctrine from passive containment to punitive deterrence. The Weaponization of Uncertainty doctrine means India will maintain strategic ambiguity about its red lines, expanding the cost matrix for adversaries.

This doctrinal shift is not simply military—it incorporates economic levers, diplomatic isolation, cyber capability, and narrative warfare. Drawing from ancient treatises like Kautilya’s Arthashastra, India’s strategy increasingly aims to break the enemy’s will without full-scale war, creating a state of psychological deterrence.

In an era where conventional warfare is increasingly replaced by hybrid, multi-domain conflict, India’s recalibrated strategy signals a willingness to shape the battlefield before conflict escalates. The road ahead will demand continued investment in tech-driven defence, strategic alliances, and information warfare.