‘The Risk Is Very High’: Expert Says IS-KP Could Recruit From Forced Returnees

Former UN monitor Heinz Jacob Schindler cautions that large-scale deportations may offer IS-KP new opportunities to grow

[ISLAMABAD] Multiple reports confirm a sharp surge in Afghans being forcibly expelled from Pakistan and Iran—a mass return that has alarmed diplomats and security officials.

They warn that Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP), already entrenched in eastern Afghanistan and notorious for brutal attacks, is poised to exploit the upheaval.

The armed group could rapidly expand its ranks by recruiting from among disoriented and vulnerable deportees, a scenario that threatens not only the Taliban’s fragile grip on power but the security of the entire region.

Since January 2025, Afghanistan has been overwhelmed by the forced return of millions of its citizens, including families uprooted after decades in exile and young people setting foot in their homeland for the first time.

According to UN reports, at least 1.2 million deportations this year have pushed the country’s fragile infrastructure to the brink, straining already scarce resources.

Analysts warn that the sudden influx deepens the humanitarian crisis and risks fueling insurgency, as extremist groups like IS-KP exploit returnees’ vulnerability.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has warned that as many as 1 million more Afghans could be expelled from Iran before the end of 2025, which could create a looming humanitarian and security crisis with grave regional consequences.

Returnees are arriving in a nation already devastated by economic collapse, where nearly 70% of the population was living in poverty even before the most recent influx.

Many, after decades abroad, come back with no resources, housing, or employment prospects.

With little reintegration support, desperation is driving young men toward IS-KP, which exploits joblessness by offering pay, bonuses, and a sense of purpose.

Overcrowded transit centers have become prime recruiting grounds, where members of the group prey on the hungry and indebted.

What began as a humanitarian tragedy has twisted into a grave security threat, with poverty serving as IS-KP’s most effective recruiter.

The group, entrenched in eastern Afghanistan, continues to stage attacks and poses a growing threat to Taliban rule and regional stability.

Yet Zabihullah Mujahid, the Afghan Taliban’s chief spokesperson, told The Media Line, “There is no evidence that IS-KP is recruiting among returnee youth or that the group has the strength to hijack resettlement efforts.”

Mujahid dismissed the reports as baseless, claiming they are deliberate attempts by certain individuals to encourage IS-KP to exploit poverty and unemployment and to mislead returnees, especially young people.

He claimed that, in reality, most Afghans coming back from Pakistan and Iran are skilled and fully capable of providing for their families.

Diplomatic and security officials warn that mass deportations from Pakistan and Iran could further swell their ranks.

In July 2025, the United Nations warned of a “permissive environment for multiple terrorist groups,” cautioning that such conditions posed a serious threat to the security of Central Asia and beyond.