Pakistan: Obsolete And Eroded – How It Lost Its Regional Influence
On November 6, 2025, Pakistan and Afghanistan are scheduled to resume mediated peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, aimed at extending a recent ceasefire agreement between the two countries. Just weeks earlier, on October 9, Pakistani jets launched strikes on sites in Kabul, the heart of Afghanistan’s capital. These attacks targeted strongholds of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but Taliban denies the presence in Afghanistan. The move was laced with broader geopolitical calculations. Tensions then flared intensely on October 11-12, as clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces surged along the disputed Durand Line.
The Durand Line
This colonial fault line, drawn in 1893 by the British to demarcate the frontier between British India and Afghanistan, has always been a source of tension. After the partition of India in 1947, Afghanistan became the only country to reject recognition of the line, arguing that the Pashtun tribes on both sides share a common ethnic, linguistic, and cultural identity that transcends artificial boundaries. Today, under Taliban rule, this historical dispute has re-emerged with renewed intensity.
From a strategic perspective, the Taliban’s stance on the Durand Line is far more than a border squabble – it symbolizes the collapse of Pakistan’s long-standing quest for “strategic depth.” For decades, Islamabad’s security doctrine has relied on controlling or influencing Afghanistan to prevent encirclement by India and the rise of Pashtun nationalism that could spill across the line. However, now, with the Taliban asserting their sovereignty and identity independent of Islamabad’s directives, Pakistan’s narrative of regional dominance is unraveling.
Voices Calling Out Punjab-Centered Pakistan’s Tyrannical Rule
This unraveling has sparked fresh calls for resolution, as evidenced by former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s recent X post amid the clashes. Ghani urged a conference on the Durand Line – which Afghanistan does not recognize as a legitimate border – involving representatives from Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He added that, rooted in 19th-century colonialism, the line demands a modern, logical resolution. In addition, Ghani stressed that for 50 years, Pakistani authorities have hypocritically disregarded the line as an official border, repeatedly breaching it and meddling in Afghan internal affairs.
Echoing Ghani’s push for a 21st-century rethinking, Baloch leader and president of the Free Balochistan Movement Hyrbyair Marri highlighted the deep, centuries-old bonds between Baloch and Afghans in his October 15 X post: “Throughout the centuries, the Afghans have stood by the Baloch during their difficult times, either by giving the Baloch shelter as refugees or coming to their aid. And the Baloch have always done the same: when the Afghans fought their independence war against the Persian occupation, the Baloch were fighting beside them. The Baloch were also their allies during the entirety of their endeavors in the subcontinent. We, the Baloch and Afghans, have always cooperated and shared mutual respect for one another.”[1]
Marri then stressed the common views of the Baloch and Afghan peoples on the Durand Line, along with their shared fight against Punjab-centered Pakistan’s tyrannic rule: “The unprovoked attack on Kabul and on the so-called border ‘Durand Line’ created by the British, which is recognized by neither the Baloch nor the Afghans, only benefits Pakistan (a puppet of the British Empire). And whenever disputes occur, Pakistan uses the transit trade route as leverage, denying Afghans access – the trade route that travels wholly through Balochistan, not Punjab. Independent Balochistan will make agreements not to exploit the transit trade route, and instead resolve our disagreements through peaceful dialogue. For centuries, the Baloch and Afghan nations have stood by and supported each other, and still nothing has changed: We stand by the Afghans against the Punjabi aggression.”[2]
Islamabad’s Reckoning: Fears Of Taliban-India Ties
It is worth noting that the Pakistani attack on Kabul coincided with Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s inaugural official journey to India – just as New Delhi moved to reinstate its embassy in Kabul. Pakistan is visibly uneasy about the growing relationship between the Taliban and New Delhi. From the very beginning, Islamabad has sought to cultivate the Taliban as a pliant force that would remain subservient to Pakistan’s military establishment and intelligence apparatus. For decades, Pakistan viewed the Taliban not as an independent political entity, but as a strategic asset to secure that prized buffer zone in Afghanistan, contain Indian influence, and ensure that Kabul’s policies remain aligned with Islamabad’s geopolitical objectives – including a quixotic hope that they would pivot to Kashmir against India.
Since the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul, Islamabad has faced growing frustration over the group’s unwillingness to obey its dictates. A stark symbol of this miscalculation came in August 2021: To congratulate the Taliban on their takeover of Afghanistan, Pakistan’s then-ISI chief, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, made an unannounced high-level visit to Kabul on September 4, leading a delegation for talks on security and governance. Spotted by journalists, he assured reporters, “Do not worry, everything will be fine,” projecting Islamabad’s confidence in a compliant Taliban regime. However, once entrenched in power, the Taliban derailed Pakistan’s entire strategic agenda.[3]
Conclusion
Pakistan today stands at a critical geopolitical crossroads. Beneath the surface of its domestic turmoil and regional maneuvering lies a growing fear of losing control over the territories of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This fear is rooted not merely in internal unrest, but in a shifting regional dynamic shaped by the Taliban government in Afghanistan, which has consistently refused to recognize the Durand Line as an official border separating the two countries.
At the same time, Pakistan is increasingly apprehensive about the Taliban’s evolving economic policies, particularly their efforts to extract and manage Afghanistan’s mineral wealth independently. For decades, Islamabad relied on a model in which the Taliban and other Afghan proxies remained dependent on Pakistan for funding, logistics, and political support. This dependence allowed Pakistan to maintain significant leverage over Kabul and ensure that Taliban action aligned with its objectives. However, as Afghanistan becomes more independent, Pakistan’s influence in the region is vanishing.
[1] X.com/ashrafghani/status/1978074956878512372, October 14, 2025.
[2] X.com/hyrbyair_marri/status/1978377029344010549, October 15, 2025.
[3] Swarajyamag.com/world/the-bitter-aftertaste-of-pakistans-cup-of-tea-in-kabul, October 10, 2025.