There’s An Important Nuance To India’s Reduced Import Of Russian Oil
This is due to US-imposed pressure, which isn’t the same from Russia’s perspective as voluntary vassal-like compliance with the US’ demands, thus maintaining their mutual trust under these circumstances.
Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar denied rumors of India banning purchases of Russian oil. In his words, “No, India buys what is best for itself. <…> The question is not whether to ban it or not. This is a matter of its security, economic and energy interests of the country, in particular the energy needs of its people. Therefore, we will continue to buy your oil depending on the financial benefits. Our Government has made it clear that India will take all measures to protect its national interests.” That’s reasonable.
There’s an important nuance, however, with respect to his conditional that India’s continued purchase of Russian oil “depends on the financial benefits.” The US imposed punitive 25% tariffs on India for the aforesaid business for half a year from last August till this February before rescinding them as part of the Indo-US trade deal. Trump boasted at the time that Modi agreed to zero out India’s import of Russian oil, which India denied, but Trump’s Executive Order empowers him to reimpose these tariffs if it doesn’t.
Per Reuters, “Russian crude shipments in January made up the smallest portion of India’s oil imports since late 2022, according to data from industry sources, while Middle Eastern supplies rose to their highest share over the same period…January imports from Russia fell by 23.5% from December and by about a third compared to a year earlier”. In parallel, Bloomberg reported that “Saudi Oil Surge to India Narrows Gap With Top Supplier Russia”, with imports from that supplier reaching a six-year high.
It was earlier explained here that “India now assesses that the overall costs of continuing to resist the US’ intensifying pressure campaign now outweigh the costs of complying with its demands” since the tariffs are considered to have a worse impact on the economy than more expensive oil imports would. India accordingly calculated that its interests are more effectively advanced by reducing its import of Russian oil, which no longer entails the same financial benefits, in exchange for removing the 25% tariffs.
One of Russia’s top experts, if not the number one, Fyodor Lukyanov recently wrote that “Moscow, too, is watching uneasily as India trims Russian oil purchases under US pressure. From a Russian perspective, such maneuvering – one might more bluntly call it opportunism – can look like a lack of sovereignty, a willingness to accommodate another power’s interests at one’s own expense.” India’s approach to sovereignty, however, “means finding ways to realize one’s interests under less-than-ideal conditions.”
He then expressed understanding of its US-imposed predicament and concluded that “This is the practical reality of what is often called a multipolar world…look after your own first.” Circling back to the important nuance about India’s reduced import of Russian oil, this business’ financial benefits still exist in theory, but not in the real-life context of the US’ punitive tariffs and threats to reimpose them. Import reductions are thus due to this pressure, not vassal-like voluntary compliance with the US’ demands.
Observers might question the relevance of this nuance since the outcome is the same regardless of the reason, but from Russia’s perspective, it’s very important that India reassured it that this trend is due to US-imposed pressure exactly as its top expert Lukyanov assessed and isn’t voluntary. This maintains their mutual trust under these circumstances, thus stabilizing the basis upon which their relations are built and ensuring the viability of their joint projects, at least unless (until?) the US starts targeting them too.