Afghan Daily Examines Geopolitical Shift In Middle East: ‘One Of The Most Prominent Features Of This…
On April 22, 2026, the Afghan media outlet Hasht-e-Subh published a Dari-language article, examining the current situation in the Middle East and arguing that the region is moving away from the post-Cold War order led by the U.S. toward a more unstable and multipolar system shaped by tensions involving the United States, Iran, Israel, and the Arab states, alongside the rising roles of China, Russia, India, and Turkey.
The analysis highlights the weakening of U.S. unilateral dominance, Iran’s regional influence strategy, shifting Arab security alignments, and the impact of conflicts, including Iran-Israel tensions and broader regional wars. Instead of a fully new order already formed, the region is entering a transitional phase of competition and realignment among global powers, it says.
Following are excerpts from the article:
“The Middle East Is Entering A New Phase Of Redefining Roles And Positions – A Stage In Which Emerging Powers And Influential Global Actors Such As China, Russia, India, And Turkey, Alongside Regional Actors, Are Rearranging Their Positions”
“Transition From Hegemony To Multipolarity: Redefining The Security Order Of The Middle East
“Providing an accurate answer to the question of whether the Iran-United States war is the beginning of a new regional order is inherently complex and multilayered.
“This difficulty stems from the fact that the previous security order in the Middle East was itself the product of a long historical process influenced by multiple factors – factors such as the region’s strategic geography, the presence of diverse state and non-state actors, the role of influential economic organizations, the unilateral interests of the United States, the intensification of sectarian tensions, and the persistence of secular authoritarian regimes.
“This combination of factors had already created a complex structure of the balance of power before any recent transformation, a structure that could not easily collapse or be replaced. However, the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States’s Greater Middle East project, the events known as the Arab Spring, the fall of some regimes opposed to Washington, and, alongside these, the growth and expansion of non-state actors such as Shia groups, ISIS, and Al-Qaeda, gradually eroded this order.
“In this context, the Islamic Republic of Iran, by pursuing a strategy of strategic depth, sought to expand the scope of its influence in the region. Likewise, the formation of the Abraham Accords and recent military developments, including limited but impactful wars, have effectively disrupted previous equations and paved the way for the region’s entry into a new phase of security interactions.
“In the current situation, the Middle East is entering a new phase of redefining roles and positions – a stage in which emerging powers and influential global actors such as China, Russia, India, and Turkey, alongside regional actors, are rearranging their positions. This reconfiguration is not occurring solely in the form of confrontation, but in many cases within a framework of functional coordination and the management of overlapping interests…”
“The Outlook Of Regional Governments Has Also Changed – Absolute Reliance On The United States’ Security Umbrella Is No Longer Considered A Sustainable Strategy, Especially In Circumstances Where Washington Itself Is Engaged In Global Competition With Powers Such As China”
“One of the most prominent features of this new situation is the relative decline of United States hegemony. This decline does not mean the complete disappearance of America’s role but rather indicates the limitation of its capacity to impose unilateral will.
“The hegemony that emerged within the framework of the so-called ‘Pax Americana’ after World War II was based on establishing states aligned with Washington and ensuring their security. This order was able to create a relatively favorable balance for the United States during the Cold War and even afterward.
“However, recent developments have shown that this model is no longer effective in the same way as before.
“In the new conditions, the outlook of regional governments has also changed. Absolute reliance on the United States’ security umbrella is no longer considered a sustainable strategy, especially in circumstances where Washington itself is engaged in global competition with powers such as China.
“As a result, regional countries are seeking to diversify their relations and create a balance among major powers. This shift in perspective is one of the key indicators of a transition toward a multipolar order.”
“Several Possible Scenarios For The Formation Of A New Order Can Be Envisioned: First, An Attempt To Create A Kind Of Arab Security Alliance That Could Act As A Balancing Force Against Other Actors; Second, A Move Toward Flexible Security Agreements With Eastern Powers, Particularly China, In Which Iran’s Interests Would Also Be Relatively Taken Into Account”
“In such a context, several possible scenarios for the formation of a new order can be envisioned. First, an attempt to create a kind of Arab security alliance that could act as a balancing force against other actors. Second, a move toward flexible security agreements with Eastern powers, particularly China, in which Iran’s interests would also be relatively taken into account.
“Third, the formation of security buffer zones that could prevent the escalation of tensions and create a fragile but manageable balance. These scenarios are not necessarily separate from one another and may, in fact, materialize in a combined form in the future of the region.
“In the meantime, the role of regional powers has also increased significantly. Countries that possess economic, military, and demographic capacities are now more than before seeking to play a role in redefining the security order. Arms accumulation, increases in defense budgets, and the development of deterrence capabilities all indicate a move toward a form of security self-reliance. However, this trend will not be sustainable without taking into account the interests of major powers, particularly in the energy sector.
“The gradual multipolarization of the region means that no single power is any longer capable of determining the rules of the game. Instead, a set of actors with sometimes conflicting and sometimes overlapping interests are shaping a complex and multilayered order. In this context, countries that are able to pass through the current crises with the least damage will have a greater chance of becoming future poles of power.
“Turkey, for example, if it adopts appropriate strategic positions, could become one of these poles, although this is heavily dependent on the way it interacts with other actors, including Israel and Iran.”
“Even If The Number Of American Military Bases Is Reduced, Their Function As Instruments Of Pressure And Monitoring Will Be Maintained”; “Alongside The United States, China’s Role As An Economic And Gradually Security-Oriented Actor Is Increasingly Strengthening”
“Despite all these developments, the United States will still remain a key actor. Its military presence, intelligence networks, and economic influence remain important tools in shaping regional equations.
“Even if the number of American military bases is reduced, their function as instruments of pressure and monitoring will be maintained. Therefore, speaking of the complete elimination of the United States’ role is more of an exaggeration than a realistic analysis.
“Alongside the United States, China’s role as an economic and gradually security-oriented actor is increasingly strengthening. By focusing on ensuring energy security and expanding economic relations, Beijing has adopted a low-cost and low-tension approach.
“This policy allows China to expand its influence in the region without direct involvement in conflicts. Bilateral agreements with Arab countries and Iran are part of this strategy, which in the long term could consolidate China’s position as a determining power.”
“Moscow’s Objective, In Addition To Limiting American Influence, Is To Create New Alliances And Strengthen Its Position In Global Equations”; “The Future Of This Order Depends On Multiple Factors, Including The Direction Of Iran’s Policies, The Orientation Of Arab Countries, The Role Of Major Powers, And Also Israel’s Position In This Equation”
“In contrast, Russia views the region more through a security and geopolitical lens. Moscow’s objective, in addition to limiting American influence, is to create new alliances and strengthen its position in global equations. Although there is competition in the energy market between Russia and Middle Eastern countries, from a security perspective this region holds special importance for the Kremlin.
“The experience of the Cold War period has also shown that Russia is capable of playing an active role in developments in the Middle East.
“Nevertheless, the main challenge in the process of forming a new order is the transitional and unstable nature of this phase. The region is passing through a period of transition characterized by ambiguity, instability, and the absence of a coherent security doctrine. This situation increases the possibility of new crises, but at the same time it also creates opportunities for redefining relations and establishing new structures.
“Ultimately, it can be said that what is taking place in the Strait of Hormuz and in the Middle East in general is not the beginning of a completely new order, but rather the beginning of the process of its formation. It is an order that has not yet been consolidated, but whose signs are clearly visible.
“The future of this order depends on multiple factors, including the direction of Iran’s policies, the orientation of Arab countries, the role of major powers, and also Israel’s position in this equation. What is certain is that the region will no longer easily remain under the dominance of a single power, and its path is moving toward a gradual form of multipolarity, although one that is costly and full of challenges.”