Putin Needs Xi’s Help. The 3 Things Russia Wants From China
The red carpet from Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing had only just been packed away before it was rolled out again for Vladimir Putin.
The Russian president’s visit to China on Tuesday and Wednesday will see the embattled leader – weakened in the fifth year of fighting in the Ukraine war – push for even more help from its biggest and most important ally.
In a video released right before he got on the plane, Putin said the countries’ decades-long relations had “reached a truly unprecedented level”.
Speaking to “Chinese friends”, he said: “I deeply appreciate President Xi Jinping’s commitment to long-term cooperation with Russia”, emphasizing the “special nature” of the relationship and “warm and friendly” ties.
Putin will be hoping for bigger wins on trade, energy and diplomacy than what Trump managed, including perhaps some progress on a gas pipeline deal inked last year.
The Ukraine war will also be top of mind. Xi had told Trump during the U.S. president’s visit that Putin might end up regretting his invasion, British newspaper The Financial Times reported on Tuesday citing sources familar with the U.S. assessment of the visit.
China has denied giving any military support to Russia in the war, while the U.S. under Trump re-established diplomatic relations with Putin and has been involved in ongoing ceasefire negotiations. However, according to a new Reuters report, China’s military secretly trained around 200 Russian soldiers in 2025, some of whom later returned to fight in Ukraine.
So far in the pre-trip commentary, neither Russia or China has officially mentioned the Ukraine war, but Europe will be watching closely for what further support China might offer as Russia struggles to achieve breakthroughs on the frontline and domestic resentment grows around the war.
“The timing behind this visit has of course been carefully picked,” said Philippe Le Corre, professor of management practice in international relations and Asian Studies at ESSEC Business School in France.
“Xi wants to show the U.S. where his closest partners lie: Russia, Iran, North Korea,” he said. “These countries send representatives to major Chinese showcases, such as the military parade last September.”
Huge Gas Project
The Kremlin on Monday had said the two leaders would discuss all areas of bilateral relations, including a critical gas supply project from Russia to China, known as the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline.
With an annual capacity of up to 50 billion cubic meters, the planned 1,600-mile pipeline from Russia’s Arctic gas fields via Mongolia to China, is important for Moscow as it seeks to redirect its gas exports to Asia, its best chance of offsetting its lost market in Europe.
Europe is phasing out Russian energy imports following Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This prompted the European Union, formerly the most lucrative market for Russian energy supplies, to cut its dependence on Moscow.
China is now the largest buyer of that sanctioned oil—although Trump recently lifted some sanctions on Russian oil to alleviate a global price spike driven by the Iran war. China has continued to buy Russian pipeline supplies and sea-borne shipments, and its independent refiners settle contracts in Chinese yuan.
This Russian pipeline is also just part of its diversification strategy for its oil supplies,as Beijing has also discussed a deal with Turkmenistan.
Russian state energy giant Gazprom had been pushing China for years to give the go-ahead for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline but the two sides only agreed last September to a legally binding deal to build it – during a meeting between Xi and Putin in China.
But there are still negotiations over pricing. Russia hopes that instability caused by the conflict in the Middle East will see China show greater flexibility in negotiations over pricing, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. Gazprom has advanced a price but Chinese partners are reluctant to advance the project, the outlet reported.
Record Trade
The Russian delegation visiting China this week will include senior officials and heads of large companies, including oil producer Rosneft and gas firms Novatek and the aformentioned Gazprom.
China has increased economic and diplomatic support for Moscow since the war started, directly helping it with revenue to sustain its war efforts.
Trade has soared to record levels, with China purchasing more than a quarter of Russia’s exports including over $367 billion of Russian fossil fuels since 2022, according to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
Since the war began, Russia has been selling oil and gas to China at a discounted rate while purchasing numerous materials and services from China including machinery and electronics, transport equipment, chemicals and plastics and rubber.
“Strategically, the two countries are very close. This has only increased since the Ukrainian war started,” said Le Corre.
In 2024, NATO labelled China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war efforts because of Chinese firms’ supply of dual-use goods. Beijing denies any active involvement in the military fighting and has said it has enacted restrictions on dual-use goods – which are by their nature hard to trace if they make it to the frontlines.
But China – which has economy worth six times more than Russia’s – has undeniable leverage over Putin.
Chinese goods have filled the gap when Western companies retreated from Russia under sanctions.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s support in the financial sector and increase of cross-border transactions in its currency, the yuan, “demonstrates an asymmetrical relationship that provides China increased control over economic negotiations, securing a useful supply chain, and maintaining long-term Chinese influence,” Callum Fraser, research analyst on international security with the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, told Newsweek.
This pressure on Putin comes as domestic economic pressures increase at home too. Five years into the war, Russia’s 2026 growth forecast has been cut to 0.4 percent from 1.3 percent.
Meanwhile Ukraine has also kept up the fight: ramping up strikes on oil infrastructure and launching attacks that are reaching more Russian cities, including Moscow this past weekend.
Global Standing Amid Isolation
Since the full-scale invasion took place, Russia has been accused of war crimes and Putin risks arrest in any country that is a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which consists of around 125 states.
This status has galvanized the Russian president’s push to increase the influence of the Global South, and he still enjoys good ties with leaders outside of Europe and North America, not least, Xi whom he will join to mark the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation between Russia and China.
“Putin cannot visit many places since he is being sanctioned, and it is not absolutely necessary to travel to Beijing to mark the 25th anniversary of the friendship treaty, but it is significant for Putin, since he can show to the West, especially the U.S., that he has the strong backing from Xi,” said Zhiqun Zhu, director of The China Institute, Bucknell University, in Pennsylvania.
Coming on the heels of the visit to China by Trump, who appears unable to break Tehran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the timing of Putin’s visit is significant, Zhu said.
“When the global attention is on the Strait of Hormuz, Putin perhaps wishes to remind everyone that the war in Ukraine is still going on, and a diplomatic solution to the conflict is highly desirable,” Zhu told Newsweek.
“He can show to Trump that he has more geopolitical cards in his hand.
“Trump wants China to buy more energy, but China is already purchasing a lot from Russia, which gives China some bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. So Putin’s visit is definitely a win for Xi.”
What Xi Wants
Yet while the power dynamic between Russia and China has shifted heavily in the latter’s favor over the past four years, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz– transit point for nearly half of China’s oil imports and a third of its liquified natural gas–has strengthened Putin’s hand, William Yang, a senior analyst for the Crisis Group think tank, told Newsweek.
Previously, Russia had been dependent on China for components and purchases of minerals, oil and gas. But with the Middle East suppliers of oil now disrupted, China now requires more oil and gas from Russia.
That has somewhat improved Putin’s stance, Yang said. “Moscow is in a better position to demand assistance, especially as its aggression in Ukraine further bogs down.”
And while China has ample strategic reserves of crude and a diversified energy mix, the Iran crisis has driven home to Beijing it must shore up a mix of energy suppliers.
Russia is an obvious source for this national security imperative, according to Yang, who said the deepening the partnership on energy is “top of the agenda” for Xi but would also benefit Moscow’s cooling economy.
The summit also serves as “an important occasion for Xi to exchange views on important bilateral, regional, and global issues and further strengthen the two countries’ coordination,” Yang added.
Xi may also hope Russia can continue to distract Europe and widen the rift between the U.S. and its traditional European allies, asid Chong Ja Ian, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
“A traditional U.S. strength is its alliance system. To the extent it is hobbled, China may feel more confident competing against the U.S. The subtext for Xi’s Thucydides trap comment is ultimately the management of U.S. terminal decline, as they see it.”
Relations between the U.S. and other NATO countries, particularly in Europe, were damaged by Trump’s threats to invade Greenland and threats of punishing tariffs.
The Thucydides Trap is a concept in international relations describing the heightened risk of conflict when a rising power threatens to displace an established one. The term comes from ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ account of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta.
Xi invoked the Thucydides Trap during his talks with Trump last week when he questioned whether China and the U.S. could avoid a clash by carefully managing their strategic rivalry.