SOUTH ASIA INTELLIGENCE REVIEW
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Bannu Division: Rising Storm
On November 22, 2023, a polio worker, Hassan Tawab, was shot dead by unidentified assailants in the Miranshah area of the North Waziristan District. Police said that Hassan was called out of his house and shot dead.
On November 21, 2023, two soldiers were killed after an improvised explosive device (IED) hit a Security Forces (SFs) convoy in the Razmak area of North Waziristan District. An Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) statement identified the dead soldiers as 33-year-old Lance Naik Ehsan Badshah and 30-year-old Lance Naik Sajid Hussain.
On November 21, 2023, one soldier, Shahzeb, was killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast in the Gharyoum area of North Waziristan District.
In the night of November 20, 2023, at least six SF personnel were injured when a group of terrorists stormed an SF camp in the Sarband area of Lakki Marwat District. The attack lasted for an hour and the terrorists managed to escape under cover of darkness.
On November 19, 2023, one Policeman was killed and another sustained injuries when two unidentified assailants opened firing on a Police squad near the Mandan Police Station in Bannu District.
The Bannu Division in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa comprises three Districts: Bannu, Lakki Marwat and North Waziristan.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the Bannu Division has recorded at least 259 terrorism-related fatalities (45 civilians, 82 SF personnel and 132 terrorists) in 2023, thus far (data till November 26, 2023). During the corresponding period of 2022, the Bannu division reported 256 terrorism-related fatalities, including 16 civilians, 75 SF personnel and 164 terrorists. Another six fatalities were reported in the remaining part of 2022, taking the total to 262, including 16 civilians, 77 SF personnel and 169 terrorists. There were 120 terrorism-related fatalities in 2021, including 17 civilians, 46 SF personnel and 57 terrorists.
The 2023 tally, with over a month still to go, is the highest in a year since 2009, when fatalities peaked at 399. Fatalities in the Division have been on a rise since 2018.
SF fatalities in 2022 were the highest in a year since 2007, when 106 troopers were killed. The 2022 civilian’s fatalities were the highest since 2010, when 114 civilians were killed. Meanwhile, the decline in terrorist’s fatalities from 169 in 2022 to 132 in 2023 is matter of concern, even as fatalities in the other categories surged.
The Bannu Division has accounted for a total of 2,559 fatalities (393 civilians, 677 SF personnel, 1,327 terrorists, 162 Not Specified) since March 6, 2000, when SATP commenced compiling data on conflicts in Pakistan. These fatalities were recorded in 676 incidents of killing.
The District-wise distribution saw 1,562 fatalities in the North Waziristan District (77 civilians, 421 SF personnel, 912 terrorists, 152 Not Specified); 691 in the Bannu District (174 civilians, 181 SF personnel, 327 terrorists, nine Not Specified); and 306 in the Lakki Marwat District (142 civilians, 75 SF personnel, 88 terrorists and one Not Specified). [North Waziristan was an Agency of the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) till May 28, 2018, when FATA was merged with KP.]
The Bannu Division which had recorded a declining trend in terrorism-related incidents as well as fatalities, dropping into the double digits, once again saw a reverse as the Taliban began to consolidate its hold on neighbouring Afghanistan, and as the US-Western withdrawal became a certainty, and surged further after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on August 14, 2021. Though the Afghan Taliban denies supporting or patronising Pakistan-based terrorist groups on itd soil, there is no hiding the reality that such groups have their bases in the bordering provinces of Afghanistan. Though an attempt to start a direct dialogue between the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Pakistan Government was initiated under the auspices of Afghan Taliban in May 2022, it came to an end in November 28, 2022 without any progress.
While violence continued throughout the ‘peace talks’ process, the first major strike after the negotiations collapsed fell on the Bannu Division, when TTP terrorists created a hostage situation at the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) Complex in Bannu Cantonment (Bannu town). A detained terrorist overpowered a constable and, after snatching the constable’s weapon, freed another 34 associates. As soon as they were freed, the terrorists seized more weapons from the armoury and started firing. The terrorists kept the CTD complex captive for two days, though efforts to induce them to surrender unconditionally continued. On December 20, SFs took action killing 25 terrorists, and arresting three, while seven surrendered. Three SF personnel were killed during the operation. 10 soldiers, including two officers, were injured. A TTP ‘spokesperson’ claimed responsibility for the hostage incident and had demanded safe passage for the prisoners to either South or North Waziristan.
The Bannu Division is strategically crucial from the TTP’s perspective, as it connects mainland Punjab (Pakistan) with Afghanistan. Tochi Pass, which is in North Waziristan, connects the Ghazni province of Afghanistan with Bannu. North Waziristan was once considered the most dangerous place on earth, and was long home to the Haqqani Network, now a major partner in Afghanistan’s Interim Government.
In a meeting on July 18, 2022, with the crisis in the Division worsening sharply, Bannu Commissioner Arshad Khan, had asked the relevant officers to prepare a comprehensive report on the Police infrastructure and working mechanisms in North Waziristan.
Further, on December 23, 2022, Additional Inspector General of Police (AIDGP)-Operations, Mohammad Ali Babakhel, declared that the “southern districts, including North and South Waziristan [from among the newly-merged tribal districts] as well as Lakki Marwat and Bannu districts [from settled areas], are trouble spots.”
On November 7, 2023, Akhtar Hayat, Inspector General of Police (IGP), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, observed that the KP Police faced security challenges in the southern parts of the province, but claimed that the law-and-order situation had improved in the rest of the province. The southern Districts include Bannu and Lakki Marwat.
Significantly, releasing details of its activities during October, TTP asserted, on November 3, 2023, that it was continuing to inflict heavy casualties on the Pakistani Forces, with 97 soldiers killed and 114 injured in 83 attacks in the month. Out of 83 attacks, 24 armed engagements took place in the Bannu region alone.
On November 13, 2023, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s CTD, unveiled its updated list of 30 most-wanted terrorists, of whom 15 were from the Bannu District and 13 from Lakki Marwat. The highest reward on a terrorist is for the head of Habibullah, who belongs to Lakki Marwat, with PKR five million; Maulvi Naimatullah, the terrorist group’s leader from Bannu, has a PKR four million bounty on his head.
While the region has been facing the threat of Islamist extremism and terrorism, local religious scholars have left no stone unturned to radicalise society even further. Most recently, on November 24, 2023, a group of Imams (religious scholars) in Bannu District issued a statement demanding a ban on girls’ participation in sports activities in the District immediately. “We are not against girls’ education but their participation in sports promotes vulgarity and if this doesn’t stop, we will launch a protest movement,” their statement declared.
The present and escalating TTP onslaught in the Bannu Division, with the implicit support of the Afghan Taliban, is raising alarm in Islamabad, even as the entire region along the AfPak border is destabilized. While the military struggles to contain the troubles, the reality is, Pakistan’s weakened and disorderly political, economic and social profile can only tempt its adversaries to play precisely the same game that Pakistan has long played across its borders into and beyond its neighbourhood. The TTP-Afghan Taliban have adopted an intransigent posture, and this can only bode ill for Islamabad.
Manipur: Meitei Insurgents Resurface
On November 25, 2023, Police arrested one active cadre of People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) on charges of extortion from Imphal West District.
On November 22, 2023, two cadres of PREPAK-Progressive (PREPAK-Pro), Laisram Prem and Khumukcham Biren, were arrested in possession of arms and ammunition at Pishum road under the Singjamei Police station in Imphal West District. Two Light Machine Guns (LMG) with eight magazines, one 9mm pistol with a magazine, one wireless set and five mobile handsets were recovered from their possession.
On November 18, 2023, five newly recruited cadres of Kanglei Yaol Kanna Lup (KYKL) surrendered before the Assam Rifles at Pallel in Kakching District.
On November 16, 2023, militants triggered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) in the Saibol area of Tengnoupal District. The blast, which targeted Assam Rifles personnel who were conducting a regular patrol, followed a few rounds of firing by the insurgents. However, no casualties were reported. An Assam Rifles officer stated, “Our troops were not injured because they were moving in a mine-protected vehicle.” The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) claimed the attack.
According to partial data compiled by the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), at least 48 insurgency-linked incidents related to active Meitei groups – the PLA, and its political wing, the Revolutionary Peoples’ Front (RPF); the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and its armed wing, the Manipur Peoples’ Army (MPA); the Peoples’ Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK) and its armed wing, the “Red Army”; the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP) and its armed wing, also called the “Red Army”; the KYKL; the umbrella Coordination Committee (CorCom); and the Alliance for Socialist Unity Kangleipak (ASUK) – have been reported in the state in 2023 (data till November 26). This includes two incidents of killing with three fatalities (one civilian and two terrorists), 43 incidents of arrest resulting in arrest of 65 cadres and two incidents of surrender in which 10 cadres have surrendered. There were 77 Kuki militants-linked fatalities (28 civilians, seven SF personnel and 42 Kuki militants), two cadres each of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) and the Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) were killed in internecine clashes between these two groups, one civilian was killed by National Revolutionary Front of Manipur (NRFM). Identity of the groups involved in 57 fatalities (40 civilians,10 SF personnel and seven terrorists) could not be ascertained.
The prominent incidents related to these Meitei groups, in addition to those mentioned above, included:.
January 4: Two UNLF militants, ‘major’ Yaiphaba and ‘captain’ Jirilakpa, were found dead at Vangli village in Churachandpur District.
August 26: A 30-year-old civilian, Khangembam Sanjoy Singh of Kumbi Municipal Council Ward No. 2, Setupur Maning Leikai, was shot dead by Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF) at Khuga Wangma, under Kumbi Police Station, in Bishnupur District.
October 27: Security forces (SFs) and Manipur Police Commandos arrested five active cadres of KCP, S. Kabikanta (32), Ng Tangba (30), S. Nongpoknganba (22), Konsan Anao (26), and Mohammad Illiya Khan (30), during cordon and search operations at hideouts in Yaripok Yambem and Changamdabi Villages in Imphal East District.
Since March 2006, when SATP started compiling data on conflict in the Northeast, these groups have accounted for 4,171 such incidents (including those in 2023). These included 632 incidents of killing with 1,136 fatalities [139 civilians, 753 terrorists, 209 Security Force (SF) personnel and 35 in the Not Specified category); 3,487 incidents of arrest in which 4,808 cadres were detained; and 52 incidents of surrender in which 108 cadres surrendered.
The prominent incidents during this period, apart from those that took place in 2023, included:
November 13, 2021: PLA and Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF) carried out one of the deadliest insurgent attacks near S. Sehken village under the Behiang Police Station, close to pillar number 43, on the India-Myanmar border, in Churachandpur District, in which the commanding officer of 46 Assam Rifles, Colonel Viplav Tripathi, his wife, six-year-old son and four personnel of the accompanying Quick Reaction Team were killed. Another five troopers were injured in the attack.
May 22, 2016: At least six personnel of 29 Assam Rifles, including one Junior Commissioned Officer (JCO), were killed and seven other personnel were injured in an ambush laid by suspected militants belonging to CorCom at Hengshi village near Joupi under Tengnoupal Police Station in Chandel District.
June 4, 2015: Militants belonging to KYKL, KCP and the Khaplang faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN-K) jointly ambushed a military convoy of the 6 Dogra Regiment of the Indian Army, killing at least 18 Army personnel and injuring 11, at a place between Paralong and Charong villages in Chandel District.
September 19, 2005: 10 SF personnel belonging to the Garhwal Rifles were killed in an attack by KYKL in the upper Ngaryan Hills range in the Bishnupur District of Manipur.
Significantly, in a notification dated November 13, 2023, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (UMHA) stated, that the Central Government was of the opinion that these Meitei Extremist Organisations have been:
engaging in activities prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of India;
employing and engaging in armed means to achieve their aforesaid objectives;
attacking and killing the Security Forces, the Police and Civilians in Manipur;
indulging in acts of intimidation, extortion and looting of civilian population for collection of funds for their Organisations;
making contacts with sources abroad to influence public opinion and secure their assistance by way of arms and training for the purpose of achieving their secessionist objective; and
maintaining camps in neighbouring countries for the purpose of sanctuaries, training and clandestine procurement of arms and ammunition.
attacking and killing the Security Forces, the Police and Civilians in Manipur;
The notification concluded that the government had, consequently, decided to extend the ban on these Meitei groups along with all their factions, wings and front organisations, for a period of five years, with effect from the November 13, 2023. These groups were first banned on November 13, 2018. The November 13, 2018, UMHA notification reads,
It is necessary to declare the Meitei Extremist Organisations… along with all their factions, wings and front organisations as ‘unlawful associations’ with immediate effect.
Between the date of the initial ban and the date of extension, these insurgent organisations have been confirmed to be involved in 302 incidents, including 295 incidents of the arrest of 389 cadres, five incidents of killing with six fatalities (three civilians and three terrorists) and two incidents of the surrender of six cadres.
Moreover, since the outbreak of ethnic clashes between Meiteis and Kukis on May 3, 2023, Manipur has recorded at least 138 insurgency-linked fatalities (69 civilians, 51 terrorists, 17 SF Personnel and one in the NS category) in 68 incidents of killing (data till November 26, 2023). It is useful to recall that overall insurgency-linked fatalities had remained in double digits between 2013 and 2018 and in single digits between 2019 and 2022, with the exception of 2021, when there were 27 fatalities). During these periods, both 2020 and 2022 had recorded a low of seven fatalities each.
The ethnic violence itself had led to 175 fatalities, according to official data available till September 14, 2023. Moreover, on November 21, 2023, the Eastern Command Army Commander Lieutenant General Rana Pratap Kalita disclosed that, since the ethnic violence between Kuki and Meitei communities erupted in Manipur on May 3, “Out of weapons [looted], only 1,500 were recovered, but more than 4,000 arms are still out.” Moreover, less than five per cent of the 650,000 rounds of ammunition stolen at the peak of violence in May, have been recovered.
In such a situation and amidst wider allegations that the Manipur government is siding with the Meitei groups, the extension of the ban on these groups was necessary. It is, however, a setback to the Central Government’s plans for peace. On March 1, 2022, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had announced that the Government of India would talk with all the militant outfits in Manipur and resolve insurgency-related problems in the State by bringing all the cadres of the extremist groups into the mainstream. He had added,
There will be no fire at any Manipuri youth, no youth will go to jail. All the cadres of the extremist outfits would come into the mainstream and they would work for the development of Manipur and the country.
Earlier, on March 10, 2023, the Manipur government had decided to withdraw from the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with two Kuki militant groups – the Kuki National Army and the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA). The remaining 23 Kuki groups which had simultaneously entered into under SoO agreements in August 2008, remain under these agreements.
It is now imperative for the Governments – both Union and the State – to ensure that the ban is followed in letter and spirit and none of these insurgent groups are allowed to take advantage of the current chaos in the state. Any attempt to engage further in a politics of appeasement will prove detrimental to long-term prospects of peace in the region.
India
Nearly 500 properties of militants seized so far by various agencies, says report: In the continued drive against terrorist elements and their organizations in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), various investigating agencies like the National Investigation Agency (NIA), State Investigation Agency (SIA), State Investigation Unit (SIU), Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Crime Branch of Jammu and Kashmir Police have so far seized 500 properties which were proceeds of terror funding.” Daily Excelsior, November 21, 2023.
Israel reaffirms LeT as a terror outfit: Israel reaffirmed its designation of Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) as a ‘terror organization’. Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lior Haiat clarified that it was not a new decision but a reiteration from 2013, recently republished due to a bureaucratic error.” Daily Excelsior, November 21, 2023.
Of 5,000 weapons looted from security forces in Manipur only 1,500 recovered, says Lt Gen Rana Pratap Kalita: On November 21, Eastern Army Commander Lieutenant General (Lt Gen) Rana Pratap Kalita said more than 5,000 arms have been looted from security forces (SFs) since ethnic violence between Kuki and Meitei communities erupted in Manipur on May 3. He said, “Out of 5,000 weapons, only 1,500 were recovered, but more than 4,000 arms are still out. Till the time these weapons are out in society, the sort of sporadic violence will continue.” NorthEast Now, November 22, 2023.
Security Forces in last stages of eliminating Naxal menace in Jharkhand, says CM Hemant Soren: Jharkhand Chief Minister (CM) Hemant Soren, on November 23, declared that the state Police and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) are in the concluding stages of eliminating Naxal [Left Wing Extremism, LWE] menace in the state. Soren said, “Security forces have dismantled stronghold of Naxals. They are in the concluding stages of eradicating Naxalism.” The Telegraph, November 24, 2023.
Come for talks without fear, Meghalaya Government says to top HNLC leaders: On November 22, Deputy Chief Minister of Meghalaya Prestone Tynsong requested the Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) not to move away from the peace process because of the demand as the government is ready to hold the talks even outside Meghalaya. He said, “I have read the HNLC’s recent statement. Unless we talk face to face and know what they really want, we will not reach anywhere.” The Shillong Times, November 23, 2023.
Naga National Political Groups accuses NSCN-IM of turning into an “anti-solution group”: The Working Committee (WC) of Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs) accused the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) of having turned into an “anti-solution group” and making “ridiculous explanations”. Further, the WC said that the NSCN-IM changed the goal posts by raising the issue of flag and constitution, both of which had not figured in all the 22 years of negotiations. India Today, November 25, 2023.
Pakistan
JUI-F, PML-N, ANP most vulnerable to terrorist attacks, says Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Government report: A Provincial Home and Tribal Affairs Department report said that the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam – Fazl (JUI-F) is the most vulnerable among mainstream political parties to terrorist attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, while next on the list are the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) and Awami National Party (ANP). The report came after the November 22 meeting of the Provincial Intelligence Coordination Committee. Dawn, November 26, 2023.
Sindh High Court express disappointment on Police performance in missing persons’ case: A Sindh High Court (SHC) bench expressed disappointment over Police performance while hearing petitions for the recovery of missing persons. A bench of the SHC blasted investigation officers (IOs) over lack of progress in case and warned punitive action against the IOs over failure in tracing the missing citizens. Justice Naimatullah Phulpoto warned to add the IOs in the list of accused involved in the enforced disappearances. “The court will deem the IOs among culprits who helped in disappearance of citizens,” SHC judge warned. Ary News, November 20, 2023.